My Learning Journey

4H is starting to form a doji like candle. 1.302 can't be broken just yet. Weekly came into a nice inside bar like shape and it seems to actually have broken upwards but it is overbought nonetheless. There is also a long wick up on top.

We are also overbought on Daily, but we've seen situations before where we continued rising despite how overbought we are.

1.348xx which is the 50% retracement of 1.20419 - 1.4397. We should be able to get there unless the 38.2 proves to be an ass. We still lack a retracement at 23.6 of 1.27xx levels. So direction now is really confusing. PO Short at 1.3485 should be a really good idea though.

This is what I think may happen. Right now there is definitely room for a drop. But it may also have to complete this upmove and meet at 1.317xx - 1.32124.

Let's see.

1.32168 actually.

We are oversold on 4H, but this doesn't mean we won't continue going lower. There is however a chance that we complete the upward move from 1.28x to here. Completion is expected to peak at 1.317 - 1.321x. But first we need to break 1.31489 which is the 38.2 fibonacci retracement from the 1.4397 - 1.20419 move. There is also a major trend line sitting just above 1.315. If we break both, we will go up higher and test the 1.32 psychological level. Finally looking to peak out around here as completion of a wave. Then we have to retrace downwards.

On a daily basis, we are technically overbought, and we have also followed the movement on Wednesday which ended in a shooting star, followed by 2 bearish candles. This shows a bearish sign. And I'm actually looking to see that 1.27xx retracement right now.

On a weekly basis, we were actually set to go for a bullish engulfing. But it seems that the long wick on the top means lots of indecision so its still anyone's game.

I expect another top to come first. We might not even test 1.314, we might only max out at 1.308. But we'll see. 1.3138x was the previous high, it may even get there and form a double top before crashing back down.

COT-wise, we have seen an increase for the previous week and another increase for this week. The drop after Thursday would mean that net longs may fall next week. Unless Monday and Tuesday are both extremely bullish days.

I will begin doing Elliot Wave counts again when I'm up later. As for now, I'm looking for it to complete the final wave up to 1.314 - 1.32.

Potential inside bar for Daily on EURUSD.

Looking for targets ranging from 1.314 - 1.32x with final target at 1.34xx.

We are now slicing through 1.308 like butter, but it seems that it will prove to be of good resistance as it has been a support. Nevertheless, we sliced it. I'm looking for 1.31762 as near term target followed by a retracement to about 1.308 once again before wave III completes itself at around 1.32xx or higher.

Either that or this wave 5 fails to close higher than wave 3 ending wave III. Wave IV could then retrace to 1.3 or 1.295.

Final target after all this is somewhere around 1.34859 - 1.35.

1.30753 is the 50% of the move down. Closing above may mean we can go higher. 4H has turned from Oversold to somewhere around 30-50 levels. MACD is about to crossover as well. Lots of big bull bars for the entire day. Looks good.

This huge spike came after a second hammer doji close on 1H.

This burst down isn't making my day at all. Was hoping to see 1.315 before 1.295. At least another 1.312 would be nice. Perhaps we could burst upwards with this down move.

Long at 1.29664. My trades are bad. Not improving.

Closed 3 pips. Went short.

+2 pips. Went long, TP 1.30298 - 1.305

+4. Pending at 1.295 Long.

Took a short at 1.29685. Looking to 1.27xx this time. May or may not get there. Considering playing intraday trends with profit targets of 100 pips and stop losses of 25 this time. No point holding positions for a long time and losing out.

+ 3 pips. Waiting for a better position. This down move would put us rather oversold.

Got a short at 1.29688.

Looking for 61.8 on my charts @ 1.29337. Have a bad feeling that it may not get there though.

We're oversold on all timeframes. 1H is beginning to push up. Perhaps a 50% retracement at 1.30453.

Not sure if we'll get to 1.27 first or 1.32 first.

Daily looks like it wants 1.27. Bearish engulfing. Weekly, same, but its not engulfing. 1H has got triple bottoms with long wicks stretching to 1.29517 while it went higher. Inside bar on 4H now.

So one day before major news and Mario Draghi's speech, we shot down almost 150 pips. We have retraced almost 23.6 of that. We are currently in previous support and demand zone which has proved to be of great support / resistance in the past. Failure to break here will send us back down to 1.285.

The big bearish engulfing bar after two really small bullish daily bars tells us that we may continue going down.

1H is beginning to become overbought but 4H is still oversold.

My long at 1.29373 is in profits now with about 39 pips. I got stop loss at BE + 3. Thinking about letting it run, but taking profits now are tempting too.

Closed for 37 pips. Will re-enter when 5 min and 15 min start to go lower. Next TP will be 50 - 75 pips long.