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AUD/USD

  • #54,421
  • Oct 22, 2012 2:46pm Oct 22, 2012 2:46pm
Just a side note. Some platforms mightn't even register this spike, as it was so abrupt
  • #54,422
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:29pm Oct 22, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
Just a side note. Some platforms mightn't even register this spike, as it was so abrupt
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post6122304
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #54,423
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:41pm Oct 22, 2012 3:41pm
I remember most member's were bearish on AUD/USD this past weekend so I want to point out the previous weekly candle again.

Also, for shorter time frame traders - look at the H4 time frame.

Bears beware...
  • #54,424
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:42pm Oct 22, 2012 3:42pm
Thank yahoo for saving ES and AUD/usd and risk in particular for not allowing a bearish reversal. this is Micro news that will fade like a bad hi.

This week though looks like the S&P range holds again! AUD/USD RBA is the macro the rest is noise.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #54,425
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:43pm Oct 22, 2012 3:43pm
100pips whats your bullish target?
  • #54,426
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:46pm Oct 22, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I remember most member's were bearish on AUD/USD this past weekend so I want to point out the previous weekly candle again.

Also, for shorter time frame traders - look at the H4 time frame.

Bears beware...
I am under the impression that 1.04 will be tested again and ill be looking for shorts there..... If we get a Higher High above 1.0400 but RSI creates Lower High... Im shorting this bitch out....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,427
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:46pm Oct 22, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting jplazard
100pips whats your bullish target?
for me... the bulls can go up to 1.04for a retest of that weekly trendline..., but im still long term bear... i just never long against the trendline and trend is still bear on higher TFs especially the weekly though there is a bullish thrust down in 1.02 i am looking to short with the bearish trend formed at the tops , now at 1.04
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,428
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:50pm Oct 22, 2012 3:50pm
Quoting jplazard
100pips whats your bullish target?
I'm actually thinking AUD/USD could shoot up to 1.05 - 1.06 one last time before making its move down to .96 area later this year.

However, I am only long AUD/JPY so my targets are 88.00 for my long positions.

Short E/A and G/A as well.

My targets have nothing to do with fundamentals. look at the EUR, fundamentally it should be lower 20's right now but due to market sentiment it is very strong right now.
  • #54,429
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:54pm Oct 22, 2012 3:54pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I'm actually thinking AUD/USD could shoot up to 1.05 - 1.06 one last time before making its move down to .96 area later this year.

However, I am only long AUD/JPY so my targets are 88.00 for my long positions.

Short E/A and G/A as well.

My targets have nothing to do with fundamentals. look at the EUR, fundamentally it should be lower 20's right now but due to market sentiment it is very strong right now.
Actually even you got the fundy messed up.... Mario Draghi and Merkel already announced they are going to do whatever they have to inorder to save the euro and that means printing money and that is exacly what investors wanted... Liquidity for eurozone banks to remain solvent, and they achieved it! otherwise its just noise.....
you saying Euro fundamentally weak already demonstrates how poor your fundies are....

However... i have to say GBP's Fundies are the weaker one.... EURGBP should've never gone below 0.8, that was a major psych level, the fact ie broke and came back means..... fundie wise Euro came back stronger than the Brits.... The Brits will probably need some good news.... maybe a report where the year end growth rate in UK's GDP is above stagnation, that will bring about some good fundie on GBP.... otherwise still fundamentally weak.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,430
  • Oct 22, 2012 3:57pm Oct 22, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting Swg123
Did anyone else get this at 1848 GMT? Stopped out by 50 pip spike lasting about 1 second on Pepperstone and IBfx. Very suspicious. I'm trying to establish whether this is bad data feed - if so I'll be claiming a refund.
yea, happend on alpari UK platform also. buh i wasnt in any trades
  • #54,431
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:02pm Oct 22, 2012 4:02pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Actually even you got the fundy messed up.... Mario Draghi and Merkel already announced they are going to do whatever they have to inorder to save the euro and that means printing money and that is exacly what investors wanted... Liquidity for eurozone banks to remain solvent, and they achieved it! otherwise its just noise.....
you saying Euro fundamentally weak already demonstrates how poor your fundies are....

However... i have to say GBP's Fundies are the weaker one.... EURGBP should've never gone below 0.8, that was a major psych level,...
My fundies are poor? Ok man... More and more I see how arrogant you are.

Eurozone is nowhere even close to being fixed, they have only kicked the can down the road. There is ample amounts of evidence supporting my view and if you can't see it then I'm sorry, there's nothing I can do.

It has been a typical CB intervention mixed with lots of verbal diarrhea in support of the EUR. When the cards come crashing down it will fall harder then any other currency out there, probably down to 1.18 or so by year's end.

Sometimes market Sentiment is more influential on market price then the actual fundamentals of a currency. Fundamentally speaking EUR is WEAK! However, Market Sentiment is showing us otherwise...

When trading FOREX it is best not to act like you know everything, that is when substantial losses can occur.

You were the one telling me to "re-check my strategy" yesterday but my trades are very much into the green. How are you doing? I'm glad you are taking your economics class and you are proactive in your learning, but you are still very young and have lots to learn. Remember, don't get cocky, it won't do you any good in the long run.
  • #54,432
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:11pm Oct 22, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
My fundies are poor? Ok man... More and more I see how arrogant you are.

Eurozone is nowhere even close to being fixed, they have only kicked the can down the road. There is ample amounts of evidence supporting my view and if you can't see it then I'm sorry, there's nothing I can do.

It has been a typical CB intervention mixed with lots of verbal diarrhea in support of the EUR. When the cards come crashing down it will fall harder then any other currency out there, probably down to 1.18 or so by year's end.

Sometimes market Sentiment...
Funny thing is you looked into the long term fundy and market is driven by the Short term fundies, Short term fundies says UP from the fact the Oh so famous ECB has decided to print money and thats what investors and speculators wanted all along.... now they got it... sheer panic is avoided.... doesnt mean their economy is sound.... but much like the US economy.... They print their asses off and no body gives a shit in the long term....
All they care is US raise their debt ceiling and Boom US had a nice rally then.... talking bout 2011, but then US budget deficit keeps on climbing and climbing and nobody gave a fuck!....

None the less im not saying i dont know anything or that my economics is teaching me how to trade...
The fact i got more vouches than you suggests People here respect my view... and therefore i would appreciate if YOU, dont pretend you know everything rather than me....

Im merely pinpointing your flaw in interpreting fundamentals when i STARTED trading with fundies and fundies alone....

Personally i dont really care, you can go long your ass with the damn bank recommendation who publicly posted AUDUSD to reach 1.07, but sorry time and time again i realize when Banks post shit calls like that.... very often it never reaches before they post another recommendation, and that it very often does the OPPOSITE of what banks are saying...

Right now Standard Chartered and Goldman saying 1.07, so go ahead, follow their lead, The wolves lair are simply gona enjoy a nice meal of you sheep.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,433
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:20pm Oct 22, 2012 4:20pm
Spain has suffered the worst hemorrhaging of bank deposits since the launch of the euro, Losing funds equal to 7pc of GDP in one month when the 10/5/2 were all trading above 7% several months back. Data from the European Central Bank shows that outflows from Spanish commercial banks reached 74Bil in July, twice the previous monthly record. This brings the total deposit loss over the past year to 10.9pc, replicating the pattern seen in Greece.
If you want to know why GPB did better in recovery here it was not their own fundamentals but purely the money flows to the GBP. It is still unclear how much of the deposit loss is capital flight, either to German banks or other safe-haven assets such as London property. The Bank of Spain said the fall is distorted by the July effect of tax payments and by the expiry of securitized funds.
For Spain and the collective they received significant help from the EUR depreciation over the summer for output but the worst falls in economic output are still present and will be with us in the last half of this year.


SO on the fundamentals we need to look no further than imports/exports, Speculative flows, and trade flows. Of course EUR/USD rises on the heels of the former outflows making their way back into the EU and this in turn will attract speculative capital and vulture funds investing is very cheap multiples. Until Greece leaves or Spain’s bond market turns on them again to take another bailout watching the IMPORT/EXPORT and Non Performing Loans (*still climbing) is the key for knowing when Europe has truly reversed.



Lets be clear there was a massive amount of money that fled Europe and it will make its way back slowly but surely that means other assets both hard/liquid will see a decline in growth rate.
  • #54,434
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:31pm Oct 22, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
My fundies are poor? Ok man... More and more I see how arrogant you are.

Eurozone is nowhere even close to being fixed, they have only kicked the can down the road. There is ample amounts of evidence supporting my view and if you can't see it then I'm sorry, there's nothing I can do.

It has been a typical CB intervention mixed with lots of verbal diarrhea in support of the EUR. When the cards come crashing down it will fall harder then any other currency out there, probably down to 1.18 or so by year's end.

Sometimes market Sentiment...
Hi 100pips,

Yes Fundamentally EUR is Weak! But those fundamentals have grown old now.
The thing is people need the market to move up and down in order to make money. People means us retailers, banks, institutions, hedge funds and all of them... the people.

So for now sentiment is EUR strong, until there can be another new fundamental strong enough to make us people panic and believe a new euro crisis .. then we can again enjoy selling EUR/USD daily when its free fall mode again.

For now... lets just "Go with the flow" hehe

Regards to AUD/USD, yes it has the good chance to hit to 1.04 at-least. From there ?? back to 1.03xx or up to kiss 1.05... the market and the scenario/price action will tell.

Cheers
To Your Success!!
  • #54,435
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:34pm Oct 22, 2012 4:34pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Funny thing is you looked into the long term fundy and market is driven by the Short term fundies, Short term fundies says UP from the fact the Oh so famous ECB has decided to print money and thats what investors and speculators wanted all along.... now they got it... sheer panic is avoided.... doesnt mean their economy is sound.... but much like the US economy.... They print their asses off and no body gives a shit in the long term....
All they care is US raise their debt ceiling and Boom US had a nice rally then.... talking bout 2011, but then...

let him trade how he pleases, no need to critisize him. we are here to help each other out. As a side note, you have been a member since jan 2010 with a little more then 10 vouches(1 being from him I believe). He has been here since May 2012 with already 5 vouches.....

just making a point, but regardless no need for arguing.
  • #54,436
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:43pm Oct 22, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting 4rextrader
let him trade how he pleases, no need to critisize him. we are here to help each other out. As a side note, you have been a member since jan 2010 with a little more then 10 vouches(1 being from him I believe). He has been here since May 2012 with already 5 vouches.....

just making a point, but regardless no need for arguing.
Hehe, before in 2004-2005 time, to have forum reputation in FF there was a better system called 1KT 5KT 10KT 100KT 1MT etc (you have to send live account statement or something to admin and prove you have done 1000 trades, 5000 trades, 10k trades and such). But now after old admin sold his site to the new admin twee, he changed it to vouching system.

Its good as well as bad.. I don't need to explain why.. Except the old reputation system was more trading related and the new reputation system is more about posting in forum, impressing other FF members and stuff like that.

Cheers
To Your Success!!
  • #54,437
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:48pm Oct 22, 2012 4:48pm
Agreed as I mentioned before in Aus bear raid those who say 1.07..1.08 to those saying 1.00...0.99...98 are still wrong and their thesis are invalid at the moment. We can only take what the numbers give us. I personally have been short since the first cut and added at the 1.04 area last week. I know this trade will take some time (months) for my thesis to develop and if the numbers invalidate my framework I will not argue and will liquidate.

At my former job I was told by an old school trader from the late 70's (traded the currency futures when they first were introduced) and he told me ' Kid remember one thing, if you voice to the world about a position you better expect to get heat, but if your wrong you can always change your mind because I would rather be criticized and SOLVENT for getting out before the reversal than Broke and criticized for knowing you were wrong and still being arrogant enough not to get out.
  • #54,438
  • Oct 22, 2012 4:59pm Oct 22, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting jplazard
Agreed as I mentioned before in Aus bear raid those who say 1.07..1.08 to those saying 1.00...0.99...98 are still wrong and their thesis are invalid at the moment. We can only take what the numbers give us. I personally have been short since the first cut and added at the 1.04 area last week. I know this trade will take some time (months) for my thesis to develop and if the numbers invalidate my framework I will not argue and will liquidate.

At my former job I was told by an old school trader from the late 70's (traded the currency futures when...
Very well said and the words from that old school trader really shows how passionate and experienced he has been in this business.

My 1 flying vouch for you hehe ,,, off-course I cant real vouch because I don't have enough vouchy's myself hehe.

But simple words in trading "It's not about Right or Wrong" , its about "Probability and risk to reward".

Cheers
To Your Success!!
  • #54,439
  • Oct 22, 2012 5:40pm Oct 22, 2012 5:40pm
Nice call Tim I hope to hear more on your analysis in the future i did note this level and it played out very well to the T. Hats off on this

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post6117434
  • #54,440
  • Oct 22, 2012 10:19pm Oct 22, 2012 10:19pm
I know this is off topic, but this video is really hilarious. I am not for one canidate or thee other.. but this was too funny for me to not wanna share with anyone that needs a good laugh.

The last few days or more I have been busy reviewing and studying more math and economics. I haven't seen any set up that I like. I might wait until after U.S. elections to start trading again. We shall see.
Inserted Video
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
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