DislikedIf you had a tight stop, it failed. But the idea is VALID. Price retested the level and closed above it => Support, which we expected.
This is why i asked about keeping the setup on the same timeframe and ignoring lower TF signatures VS playing the lower TF signatures.
Think in the end it's about experience and finding a balance between the two.
I'm gonna post an after the fact thought. I'm curious what Jaroo thinks about this approach:
AttachmentIgnored
james16 Chart Thread
- #119,903
- Oct 22, 2012 8:51am Oct 22, 2012 8:51am
Anybody know where Chanya has gone ? It seemed as if he was the only other person trading this method with consistant profits but has since disappeared when he opened his live account.
Cheers
Dan
I'm not Chanya so I don't get the whole truth about his life and everything (don't even know if he's as scary as his avatar
), but, AFAIK, Chanya's being a bit busy with his "real life". And I don't think he "disappeared after having open his live account". He said in april this year he would trade "for real", and he's been actively posting since then...
Still I would agree with you, Chanya, come back, we miss your charts!
Slow & steady
- #119,905
- Edited 9:03am Oct 22, 2012 8:53am | Edited 9:03am
- | Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Hybrid | 413 Posts
Hi, well my question would be why ignore lower TF signitures. Jarroo has mentioned them alot and stated that this is a common trait of a successfull setup. So why ignore it.
All i wanted to know was if the lower TF signatures small loses (strict filter on the levels) is less, or more, profitable longterm than just sticking to the Daily Close Confirmation ( Or Weekly Close Confirmation for weekly setups) to get out of a trade. You basically have :
1) Waay fewer trades with lower TF signatures, BUT with smaller loses each time the setup fails (if you use a not so tight stop , so that you can cut your losses way lower than 100% initial SL )
2) More trades without the lower TF signatures, with relatively larger losses (potentially ) BUT you allow the setup to develop itself on the timeframe in which it originated.
As i said in the post above, I think this answer will come with experience and forward testing only...If it were that easy to answer...
Is this enough to exit this trade (long on the HCR)? Feels like suffocating a good level.
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
Anybody know where Chanya has gone ? It seemed as if he was the only other person trading this method with consistant profits but has since disappeared when he opened his live account.
Cheers
Dan
I don't need easy. I just need possible.
- #119,909
- Oct 22, 2012 9:13am Oct 22, 2012 9:13am
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,100 Posts
I think he got grounded by his parents
- #119,913
- Oct 22, 2012 12:38pm Oct 22, 2012 12:38pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2006 | 12,004 Posts
Anybody know where Chanya has gone ? It seemed as if he was the only other person trading this method with consistant profits but has since disappeared when he opened his live account.
Cheers
Dan
I have read your's and DGB's posts with great interest and hoped you would not mind if I offered my 0.02 on this topic. Not offering any answers, just sharing my thoughts.
Jim - in case any of this is inappropriate please feel free to remove the post.
Price breaks through is a method I have closely looked at over the last couple of months and there are a few searching questions I pondered over:
What kind of a trader are you?
I believe Jarroo's method offers a brilliant toolbox using which you can pick and choose tools from and make it your own.
The lower level time signatures offer an excellent mechanism to get onboard the 'best' trades. And by doing so, there is invariably the chance that you would get stopped out on some trades that would later end up winners. The question I asked myself here was - Do I want to take a few more small losers and then end up with a big winner? Or am I comfortable with a slightly higher win rate with larger losers?
Case in point - out of my last 10 trades using the PBT method, 70% were losers (<0.2R) and 30% were winners (1.5R-2.5R). This was because I was ruthless with cutting my losers at the first sign of trouble. Did it suck when price came back after a lower tf signature fail? You bet it did but overall, It ended up with a positive expectancy
Do you tend to jump the gun?
I believe the method offers ecstasy and frustration in equal measure. There are trades where you nail it to the pip and there is almost zero drawdown. On the other hand, there are trades which zoom to end of the world without you onboard. The key is in finding a balance between an aggressive entry and a more disciplined LCS / HCR entry.
Are you comfortable trading without confirmation?
This was the big one for me. Trading once a pattern is confirmed using a buy/sell stop order is great because if you know your FTAs, there is a good chance you can get yourself to BE and reduce your risk even on marginal setups. If you got it wrong directionally, tough luck, but your account is unscathed because your entry never triggered. With PBT, you are trading 'naked'. If you haven't got it right (e.g. weak level, wrong HCR etc.), you are left catching a falling knife. And as with life, this 'disadvantage' comes with an advantage - Great R/R ratios.
Know your closes
This is where hours of backtesting it really helped. Price keeps testing and teasing the outer extremities of a strong S/R until one fine day, it explodes out. PBT is great to be onboard this explosive move. The price you pay is a few small losers.
A lot of my losers were due to me incorrectly reading Swing point failures (SPFs) as PBTs. This is particularly pronounced at deep swing points where price has travelled a bit to get to. There is a good chance that price might test the HHR/LLR and then close inside the range even if it is outside the HCR/LCS. These closes often result in a reversal or a consolidation right at the HCR/LCS.
On the other hand, you have got the very strong closes above the range of the consolidation boxes that stop for no-one and run up for the next 500 pips! The question is - Are you willing to take a chance and if wrong ready to reverse in a heartbeat?
Hope this was not too much of a rant. Cheers and all the best with your trading!
Ganesh
- #119,918
- Oct 22, 2012 1:57pm Oct 22, 2012 1:57pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,100 Posts
Dan
I have read your's and DGB's posts with great interest and hoped you would not mind if I offered my 0.02 on this topic. Not offering any answers, just sharing my thoughts.
Jim - in case any of this is inappropriate please feel free to remove the post.
Price breaks through is a method I have closely looked at over the last couple of months and there are a few searching questions I pondered over:
What kind of a trader are you?
I believe Jarroo's method offers a brilliant toolbox using which you can pick and choose tools from...
Well, Jarroo's method seems to work well with me in the sense that I picked it up quickly and felt comfortable with it. For me this method suits me so im going to stick to it. Like you I have been reading his method in detail for a while now both here and on the Private Forum. I just have not had any success with it yet ...
Im perfectly OK trading without comfirmation (taking touch trades) using this method, I just seem comfortable with it and thats why I have been sticking to TT instead of the CC entry method.
Yeah these SFP patterns seem to be an issue. As you said they occur at deep swing points .. which is exactly where Jarroo says our HCR and LCS levels are the strongest. so if PBT&CAorB one of them ..... what do we do.
Anyway if you would like to join in and set up a demo account with trade explorer, to forward test this method that would great.
Cheers
Dan
- #119,919
- Oct 22, 2012 2:18pm Oct 22, 2012 2:18pm
Guys what do you think about this?I think it could be a great touch trade around 103.85. There is nice support, ema 365 and rising trendline too. I´m starting to learn touch trading so I would like to hear your opinion
