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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #11,221
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:07pm Oct 21, 2012 9:07pm
Quoting DaddyBear
CNBC-
"China Economy in Feeble Fourth Quarter Recovery, RRR Cut Eyed"
Is this bullish?
ohhhhh yeeeaaahhh
  • #11,222
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:08pm Oct 21, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting DaddyBear
CNBC-
"China Economy in Feeble Fourth Quarter Recovery, RRR Cut Eyed"
Is this bullish?
There is no absolutely bearish or bullish events in the market. Everything is relative and temporary.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,223
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:10pm Oct 21, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting DaddyBear
There is no absolutely bearish or bullish events in the market. Everything is relative and temporary.
Here is what I am thinking. The budget brings the Aussie down then China push her up. By the time of rate cut, she dives.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,224
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:11pm Oct 21, 2012 9:11pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Here is what I am thinking. The budget brings the Aussie down then China push her up. By the time of rate cut, she dives.
Do u have info when China wants to do the cut?
  • #11,225
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:19pm Oct 21, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting bonus76
Do u have info when China wants to do the cut?
China usually did it during the weekend. So I expect a gap up next Sunday. It may be too early to talk about the cut but the expectation will lift the Aussie after people forgot the budget issue. In the market, nothing is forever.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,226
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:19pm Oct 21, 2012 9:19pm
BUDGET UPDATE - KEY NUMBERS
Surplus: $1.1 billion in 2012-13 (down from $1.5 billion in May budget).
Revenue: revised down by $4 billion for 2012-13, and $20 billion over four years to 2015-16.Savings: $16.4 billion over four years.
HITS TO 2012-13 BOTTOM LINE SINCE MAY

 

  1. $1.1 billion - Increased immigration spending.

  1. $2.4 billion - Company tax down.

  1. $1.8 billion - Resource rent taxes down.

Advertisement
SAVINGS

 

  1. $8.3 billion over three years - company tax to be collected monthly from large businesses, rather than quarterly.

  1. $700 million over three years - government contribution to private health insurance to increase more slowly.

  1. $390 million over three years - removing private health insurance rebate on lifetime cover loading component of premiums.

  1. $461 million over three years - baby bonus down from $5000 to $3000 from July 1, 2013 for second and subsequent children.

  1. $305 million over four years - change of funding for trade training centres.

  1. $270 million over three years - cuts to facilitation funding to universities.

  1. $499 million over four years - slower funding increases for Sustainable Research Excellence

  1. $277 million over four years - cuts to payments to employers of part-time and casual apprentices.

  1. $89 million over four years - reductions in various grants.

ECONOMY
Gross domestic product: 3 per cent in 2012-13 (down from 3.25 per cent in May budget) and 2013-14.

Unemployment rate: 5.5 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14 (unchanged from May budget).


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/midyear-budget-update-at-a-glance-20121022-280jz.html#ixzz29zT2vTiC

  • #11,227
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:20pm Oct 21, 2012 9:20pm
Quoting DaddyBear
China usually did it during the weekend. So I expect a gap up next Sunday. It may be too early to talk about the cut but the expectation will lift the Aussie after people forgot the budget issue. In the market, nothing is forever.
He didnt surprise with anything except taxing companies on monthly basis. Gdp is still in trend of 3% and debt is low
  • #11,228
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:25pm Oct 21, 2012 9:25pm
Quoting DaddyBear
China usually did it during the weekend. So I expect a gap up next Sunday. It may be too early to talk about the cut but the expectation will lift the Aussie after people forgot the budget issue. In the market, nothing is forever.
Regardless of the budget issue, IMO, the Aussie will have a retracement after the bears running out of steam. As to how high it may reach is the second puzzle I posted earlier. I hope it won't happen when I am sleeping.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1350843695
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,229
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:28pm Oct 21, 2012 9:28pm
Hi all,

Been out of the market for about a month and a half now taking care of family stuff. What's been happening and what's the latest on the AUD/USD ?
  • #11,230
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:42pm Oct 21, 2012 9:42pm
Quoting mattheweston
Hi all,

Been out of the market for about a month and a half now taking care of family stuff. What's been happening and what's the latest on the AUD/USD ?
Welcome back. The Aussie has been moving up and down all the time. You did not miss anything.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,231
  • Oct 21, 2012 10:47pm Oct 21, 2012 10:47pm
A lot of people may be bored by this turtle moving speed PA. However, this could be a winding process before a dynamic unwinding move.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,232
  • Oct 21, 2012 10:49pm Oct 21, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting DaddyBear
A lot of people may be bored by this turtle moving speed PA. However, this could be a winding process before an unwinding move.
I never expect much from Sundays^^
  • #11,233
  • Oct 21, 2012 10:57pm Oct 21, 2012 10:57pm
Quoting maximmm
I never expect much from Sundays^^
It depends. If China cuts the rate, Sunday would be very volatile.

When you are not expecting anything, it's time to be careful about a sudden move. I expect some dynamic move later and am waiting for it.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,234
  • Oct 22, 2012 1:46am Oct 22, 2012 1:46am
Based on Eurusd action, aud will break 1.30 and bounce off 1.026 - the triangle is still in play, it would seem.
  • #11,235
  • Oct 22, 2012 6:21am Oct 22, 2012 6:21am
Quoting maximmm
Based on Eurusd action, aud will break 1.30 and bounce off 1.026 - the triangle is still in play, it would seem.
Which triangle?
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,236
  • Oct 22, 2012 6:30am Oct 22, 2012 6:30am
Quoting DaddyBear
After the market closed, the pattern became clear. The Aussie will move down then move up when market opens on Sunday night. Monday could be a Doji day. After that the Aussie shall be heading to 1.01xx. IMO
A Doji day means the balance of the power. Unlike the Doji at the top, such Doji is a continuation pattern.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,237
  • Oct 22, 2012 6:34am Oct 22, 2012 6:34am
Australian Budget Surplus Forecast


An official statement released from Australia confirmed this fiscal year budget surplus forecast was revised down by around one third to $1 billion (AUD). This statement is likely to limit the upside in AUD against a basket of currencies. Forex traders may soon acknowledge the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may slash rates again in November in order to boost domestic growth. Rather than concentrating on AUD/USD I tend to favor AUD weakness against other currencies such as GBP/AUD.

Attached Image


The 55MA (in black) crossed the 100MA (in green) and 200MA (in purple), what is commonly known as a golden cross. This signals strong gains are in store for GBP/AUD in the upcoming sessions. This matches the fundamental outlook for the Australian dollar due to the revised budget surplus forecast. Initial target is seen at 1.5610, final bullish target for GBP/AUD is drawn at 1.5840. What may catalyze the gains in the FX cross are the Australian CPI q/q and China HSBC Manufacturing PMI due later this week.

(Written by Matti Williamson)
  • #11,238
  • Oct 22, 2012 6:51am Oct 22, 2012 6:51am
Quoting Roberto99
Australian Budget Surplus Forecast


An official statement released from Australia confirmed this fiscal year budget surplus forecast was revised down by around one third to $1 billion (AUD). This statement is likely to limit the upside in AUD against a basket of currencies. Forex traders may soon acknowledge the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may slash rates again in November in order to boost domestic growth. Rather than concentrating on AUD/USD I tend to favor AUD weakness against other currencies such as GBP/AUD.

Attachment

The...
I assume the red line is a 21MA. Seems to me it is hooking down. In the very short term, this pair shall drop some more before moving up IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,239
  • Oct 22, 2012 6:53am Oct 22, 2012 6:53am
Quoting DaddyBear
I assume the red line is a 21MA. Seems to me it is hooking down. In the very short term, this pair shall drop some more before moving up IMO.
By the way, the spread of GBPAUD is too high to trade IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #11,240
  • Oct 22, 2012 10:36am Oct 22, 2012 10:36am
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1350843695

The Aussie was bounced off S1. This could be the Bulls final attempt. How high can she reach?
daddybearforex. com
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