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AUD/USD

  • #54,381
  • Oct 21, 2012 6:58pm Oct 21, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting sidhujag
gold can hit its target mid this week while au keeps its low easily. If it does long is better option with rr at 1.01
Talk about Better RR huh..... if i get to Short at 1.0350/1.04 ill be aiming for TP at 0.98 while SL are above 1.06, Good RR on my side too.... 600 pip profit vs 200loss... and i said i was a daily+weekly chart traders so yep very long term stuff means bigger pips.

Besides i dont see if bullish need to be bullish.... they should be looking at 1.0250, not 1.01

See that yellow upwards trendline?? i see that as the only bullish defense this week... and it happens to coincide perfectly at 1.0250....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4.gif Size: 26 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,382
  • Oct 21, 2012 7:00pm Oct 21, 2012 7:00pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Talk about Better RR huh..... if i get to Short at 1.0350/1.04 ill be aiming for TP at 0.98 while SL are above 1.06, Good RR on my side too.... 600 pip profit vs 200loss... and i said i was a daily+weekly chart traders so yep very long term stuff means bigger pips.

Besides i dont see if bullish need to be bullish.... they should be looking at 1.0250, not 1.01
could be for sure either way better not to enter right now.
  • #54,383
  • Oct 21, 2012 7:02pm Oct 21, 2012 7:02pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Talk about Better RR huh..... if i get to Short at 1.0350/1.04 ill be aiming for TP at 0.98 while SL are above 1.06, Good RR on my side too.... 600 pip profit vs 200loss... and i said i was a daily+weekly chart traders so yep very long term stuff means bigger pips.

Besides i dont see if bullish need to be bullish.... they should be looking at 1.0250, not 1.01

See that yellow upwards trendline?? i see that as the only bullish defense this week... and it happens to coincide perfectly at 1.0250....
Attachment
Also is the .61 fib.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #54,384
  • Oct 21, 2012 7:03pm Oct 21, 2012 7:03pm
Quoting sidhujag
could be for sure either way better not to enter right now.
well atleast AU is still "Tradable", fucking EU is not doing shit.... and it scares me how EU is moving in 50 pips range for weeks now...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,385
  • Oct 21, 2012 7:05pm Oct 21, 2012 7:05pm
Quoting fxtyrant
well atleast AU is still "Tradable", fucking EU is not doing shit.... and it scares me how EU is moving in 50 pips range for weeks now...
its only tradeable during news for aud or london ny.. eu waiting for spain same as gold interesting that it is selling while waiting
  • #54,386
  • Oct 21, 2012 7:33pm Oct 21, 2012 7:33pm
Quoting 100PipsADay

Based off of the past 10 year statistics I have a 75% chance that the gap will be filled with AUD/JPY TODAY! Odds are definitely in my favor...
Trading is not about possibilities, it is about probabilities. Statistics showed me that 75% of AUD/JPY gaps in the past 10 years were closed the same trading day the Gap occured.

Looks like we are moving nicely in the right direction. AUD/USD is also following in the same direction. Take a look at the AUD/USD weekly charts, can't help but notice a previous bullish weekly candle.

Like always, only time will tell...

Good luck to all!
  • #54,387
  • Oct 21, 2012 8:06pm Oct 21, 2012 8:06pm
Thanks to probabilities my AUD/JPY gap was just filled.

AUD/USD only needs another 5 pips or so before that Gap is filled as well.

My only trade that is not moving in my direction is my E/A shorts...strange how strong EUR is these days.

I think the big boys are taking out all of the retail short positions...
  • #54,388
  • Oct 21, 2012 8:59pm Oct 21, 2012 8:59pm
Quoting fxtyrant
i never said 50 pips in AU = 50 dollars in gold... All im saying is.... Its not time to be bullish on AU given the circumstance that Gold broke below to open up 1650 as a possible location before any reacting.....
Strong reaction on gold looks like gold retrace is here to start
  • #54,389
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:10pm Oct 21, 2012 9:10pm
swan killed our baby bull
Mohan
  • #54,390
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:16pm Oct 21, 2012 9:16pm
youre wrong,
swan give birth to more bears...



Quoting mohan76
swan killed our baby bull
  • #54,391
  • Oct 21, 2012 9:19pm Oct 21, 2012 9:19pm
BUDGET UPDATE - KEY NUMBERS
Surplus: $1.1 billion in 2012-13 (down from $1.5 billion in May budget).
Revenue: revised down by $4 billion for 2012-13, and $20 billion over four years to 2015-16.Savings: $16.4 billion over four years.
HITS TO 2012-13 BOTTOM LINE SINCE MAY

 

  1. $1.1 billion - Increased immigration spending.

  1. $2.4 billion - Company tax down.

  1. $1.8 billion - Resource rent taxes down.

Advertisement
SAVINGS

 

  1. $8.3 billion over three years - company tax to be collected monthly from large businesses, rather than quarterly.

  1. $700 million over three years - government contribution to private health insurance to increase more slowly.

  1. $390 million over three years - removing private health insurance rebate on lifetime cover loading component of premiums.

  1. $461 million over three years - baby bonus down from $5000 to $3000 from July 1, 2013 for second and subsequent children.

  1. $305 million over four years - change of funding for trade training centres.

  1. $270 million over three years - cuts to facilitation funding to universities.

  1. $499 million over four years - slower funding increases for Sustainable Research Excellence

  1. $277 million over four years - cuts to payments to employers of part-time and casual apprentices.

  1. $89 million over four years - reductions in various grants.

ECONOMY
Gross domestic product: 3 per cent in 2012-13 (down from 3.25 per cent in May budget) and 2013-14.

Unemployment rate: 5.5 per cent in 2012-13 and 2013-14 (unchanged from May budget).


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politi...#ixzz29zT2vTiC

  • #54,392
  • Oct 21, 2012 10:16pm Oct 21, 2012 10:16pm
buy limit gold 1716 sl at low reverse head. and shoulder setup
  • #54,393
  • Oct 21, 2012 11:49pm Oct 21, 2012 11:49pm
FxTyrant: Curious to know what your limit will be for AUD/USD before closing out your short positions?

I think JP's limit is 1.05, curious to know what yours is buddy?
  • #54,394
  • Oct 21, 2012 11:59pm Oct 21, 2012 11:59pm
Woohooo look at USD/JPY take off! I posted some great articles and charts last week in regards to WHY JPY will weaken and that the time was coming SOON.

It has already started...

I mentioned buying just about any JPY cross pair last week and if you had taken my advice you would be doing just fine right now.

USD/JPY is more than likely at a long term trend reversal and I see it heading to 96 by the end of the first quarter 2013. Possibly sooner...
  • #54,395
  • Oct 22, 2012 12:05am Oct 22, 2012 12:05am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Woohooo look at USD/JPY take off! I posted some great articles and charts last week in regards to WHY JPY will weaken and that the time was coming SOON.

It has already started...

I mentioned buying just about any JPY cross pair last week and if you had taken my advice you would be doing just fine right now.

USD/JPY is more than likely at a long term trend reversal and I see it heading to 96 by the end of the first quarter 2013. Possibly sooner...
ya its been on my radar for about 6 months. Could be but nfp will tell
  • #54,396
  • Oct 22, 2012 12:11am Oct 22, 2012 12:11am
Quoting sidhujag
ya its been on my radar for about 6 months. Could be but nfp will tell
I don't think NFP can change an entire trend...

That's the nice thing about Swing and Position trading, you don't get knocked out of your trades by news driven events as they don't normally change a larger time frame trend.

**USD/JPY just hit a 4 month high**
  • #54,397
  • Oct 22, 2012 1:45am Oct 22, 2012 1:45am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I don't think NFP can change an entire trend...

That's the nice thing about Swing and Position trading, you don't get knocked out of your trades by news driven events as they don't normally change a larger time frame trend.

**USD/JPY just hit a 4 month high**
Looks like Yen and CAD are losing its safe haven status since Friday.
  • #54,398
  • Edited 2:01am Oct 22, 2012 1:49am | Edited 2:01am
Quoting Ken A
Looks like Yen and CAD are losing its safe haven status since Friday.
Yep!

Yen has some serious fundamental issues going on. Last year (2011) Japan experienced its first trade deficit in over 20 years. This year has been bad for them as well due to the strong yen and other factors.

It may be too early to tell but I am expecting a long term reversal for USD/JPY. 80.40 is still my weekly target for USD/JPY. Once broken and closed on the weekly, it is confirmed as far as I'm concerned.

You playing any JPY cross pairs?

Edit: USD/JPY is now testing the 200 SMA.
  • #54,399
  • Oct 22, 2012 2:49am Oct 22, 2012 2:49am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yep!

Yen has some serious fundamental issues going on. Last year (2011) Japan experienced its first trade deficit in over 20 years. This year has been bad for them as well due to the strong yen and other factors.

It may be too early to tell but I am expecting a long term reversal for USD/JPY. 80.40 is still my weekly target for USD/JPY. Once broken and closed on the weekly, it is confirmed as far as I'm concerned.

You playing any JPY cross pairs?

Edit: USD/JPY is now testing the 200 SMA.
Yep only Yen pairs. Euro is in the mid range very difficult to see where it is going other than buy on dip and sell on top of its daily/weekly range.
  • #54,400
  • Oct 22, 2012 2:52am Oct 22, 2012 2:52am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Woohooo look at USD/JPY take off! I posted some great articles and charts last week in regards to WHY JPY will weaken and that the time was coming SOON.

It has already started...

I mentioned buying just about any JPY cross pair last week and if you had taken my advice you would be doing just fine right now.

USD/JPY is more than likely at a long term trend reversal and I see it heading to 96 by the end of the first quarter 2013. Possibly sooner...
Uj weakening is inevitable and i have mentioned too how yen will weaken simply cuz boj needs find some balls to intervene and keep yen low so japans exporting industry can see growth again.... Or die by deflation...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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