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  • #7,041
  • Oct 17, 2012 3:58am Oct 17, 2012 3:58am
Quoting geomink
move funds is not sufficient

if you live in Italy you will pay the new tax
I live in Germany and the tax will come too but everyone is talking about 0,01 %.

Here ist the thread on FF http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...335635&page=11

They say that spot forex will not be taxed!?
  • #7,042
  • Oct 17, 2012 4:05am Oct 17, 2012 4:05am
Quoting Smike

They say that spot forex will not be taxed!?
Hi Smike,
maybe in Germany is true,

but here in Italy in last law forex is treaten equal as a derivative, and taxed as well
Don't give up
  • #7,043
  • Oct 17, 2012 4:23am Oct 17, 2012 4:23am
Quoting geomink
Hi Smike,
maybe in Germany is true,

but here in Italy in last law forex is treaten equal as a derivative, and taxed as well
My broker (alpari) told me that only the institution sitting in the 11 EU Countries will be taxed. The accounts from alpari are in the UK so the transaktions are taken there.

Or I`m wrong?
  • #7,044
  • Oct 17, 2012 4:29am Oct 17, 2012 4:29am
Quoting Smike
My broker (alpari) told me that only the institution sitting in the 11 EU Countries will be taxed. The accounts from alpari are in the UK so the transaktions are taken there.

Or I`m wrong?
Smike, I can report the situation here in Italy.

I use Oanda, based on USA and account is in UK.

Only by the fact I'm resident in Italy I will pay the tax, even if transaction are taken outside
Don't give up
  • #7,045
  • Oct 17, 2012 7:18am Oct 17, 2012 7:18am
BE at the NYO although it's looking a little shaky...

Attached Image
  • #7,046
  • Oct 17, 2012 12:24pm Oct 17, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting Fizzerr
BE at the NYO although it's looking a little shaky...

Attachment
It's a keeper!
  • #7,047
  • Oct 18, 2012 9:16am Oct 18, 2012 9:16am
Hi guys,

I'm looking for a post of Tony, where he put on a list of him preferred news to trade;

I've tryed with the search of the thread but I'm not able to find it.

Please, someone has this material?

Many thanks in advance

BR

Geo
Don't give up
  • #7,048
  • Oct 18, 2012 12:39pm Oct 18, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting Tony112
Guys I have to put some positive vibes back into this forum: I have been trading since the early 2000's. Let me tell you one thing... This aint no fairy tail... or the world in pink... You can't wake up everyday and be disappointed because AN OPEN FAILED. ALMOST ALL OPENS WILL FAIL. In what world do you live in? You are not allowed to be disappointed. If you're lucky, you're gonna get 2 opens as 400 epic wins in a WHOLE YEAR. thats about 260 trading days! Manage, refund, limit your losses, set 0SLs! go bring back some empty cans and empty beer bottles...
Tony, Please do not take this personally, but based on your comments above, your system is doomed to fail for the following reason: Bear with me.

Lets assume we start with a balance of $10 000. We risk 0.7% over two pips per trade... we take two trades a day... 260 days a year. Half our trades close at break-even and the other half close at our stop loss of -2 pips (this is realistic). On the upside we win one 400 pip ride a year.

Punch that into a spreadsheet and the results are a terrifying.

After 260 days we will have refunded a total of $18200 to keep our initial balance at $10 000

Now, after a long wait we hit our home run of 400 pips. That would yield us $7000.

$7000 minus $18200 = -$11200 (Dead in the water)

Lets get optimistic and say we hit a runner of 400 pips after six months.

Sorry... we are still -$2100 down the hole.

Basically, we have to hit a 400 pip winner EVERY FOUR MONTHS for this system just to break-even.

Tony... others: Put me out of my misery and please prove me wrong on the numbers.
  • #7,049
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:09am Oct 19, 2012 12:09am
Your calculation is incorrect. If your risking 0.7% per trade on a $10,000 account then this means your pip value is $35. Hence your loss is $18,200 as you have calculated it (assuming 50% of trades go to BE).

BUT if you were to achieve a 400 pip TP then you'd make $14,000 and so achieving two wins per year would generate a net profit of $9,800 ($28,000 less $18,200), or 98% account growth p.a.

The question is weather this system can generate two wins a year at a TP of 400 pips, and weather people have the stamina to sustain the continuous losses.

Further more if you were to miss one of the winning days - for whatever reason - you'd be stuffed for that year!
  • #7,050
  • Oct 19, 2012 2:07am Oct 19, 2012 2:07am
  • #7,051
  • Oct 19, 2012 2:33am Oct 19, 2012 2:33am
Quoting timmy
Your calculation is incorrect. If your risking 0.7% per trade on a $10,000 account then this means your pip value is $35. Hence your loss is $18,200 as you have calculated it (assuming 50% of trades go to BE).

BUT if you were to achieve a 400 pip TP then you'd make $14,000 and so achieving two wins per year would generate a net profit of $9,800 ($28,000 less $18,200), or 98% account growth p.a.

The question is weather this system can generate two wins a year at a TP of 400 pips, and weather people have the stamina to sustain the continuous...
To the contrary, Timmy, your calculation is incorrect. The pip value will be $17.50. Remember, your TOTAL risk per trade is spread over TWO pips. So the value of 1 pip is $17.50. A +400 pip win thus has a value of $7000.

My original calculation holds.

Tony... others? This is important guys. No use kicking an empty beer can down the road.
  • #7,052
  • Oct 19, 2012 2:47am Oct 19, 2012 2:47am
Quoting timmy
Your calculation is incorrect. If your risking 0.7% per trade on a $10,000 account then this means your pip value is $35. Hence your loss is $18,200 as you have calculated it (assuming 50% of trades go to BE).

BUT if you were to achieve a 400 pip TP then you'd make $14,000 and so achieving two wins per year would generate a net profit of $9,800 ($28,000 less $18,200), or 98% account growth p.a.

The question is weather this system can generate two wins a year at a TP of 400 pips, and weather people have the stamina to sustain the continuous...

I made a few changes based on backtesting, though it was not tick data, just mt4 minute data...

am using Zen Leow's excellent ea to execute, but occasionally try to add manually, too...

these lead to less or no need to refund, but may mean we miss the occasional epic win...

default except:


1. move to 5 pips when 10 pips reached
2. 60 pip trailing stop, or 140 pip ts...
3. 3 charts open trading Frankfurt, L and NY Open,
and 2 hours after Tokyo, London and Ny open

only been doing it month like that, but had 100, 150, and 20 pip wins, and a few 5 pips... plus three times more misfires, -2, -1, and 0,
because of trading six opens...

hard to say if it's a better way, but that's what my backtesting pointed to...
  • #7,053
  • Oct 19, 2012 3:06am Oct 19, 2012 3:06am
Quoting doyathink


1. move to 5 pips when 10 pips reached
2. 60 pip trailing stop, or 140 pip ts...
3. 3 charts open trading Frankfurt, L and NY Open,
and 2 hours after Tokyo, London and Ny open

only been doing it month like that, but had 100, 150, and 20 pip wins, and a few 5 pips... plus three times more misfires, -2, -1, and 0,
because of trading six opens...

hard to say if it's a better way, but that's what my backtesting pointed to...
Hey Doya,

how do you manage the SL?

Thanks
Don't give up
  • #7,054
  • Edited 7:45am Oct 19, 2012 7:28am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting hazel1919
To the contrary, Timmy, your calculation is incorrect. The pip value will be $17.50. Remember, your TOTAL risk per trade is spread over TWO pips. So the value of 1 pip is $17.50. A +400 pip win thus has a value of $7000.

My original calculation holds.

Tony... others? This is important guys. No use kicking an empty beer can down the road.
Yes - sorry I mistook your 0.7% to be across each trade. However I believe you'll find your figures still to be incorrect - even if you are risking this amount across two trades (ie $17.50 per pip rather than $35 based on your example).

Since your loss would be 260 days x 2pips = 520 pips loss over one year (given your assumption of the other half of the trades breaking even). If, as you correctly state, your pip value at $17.50 then the loss would be $9,100 NOT $18,200. Hence if you were to win twice per year you'd make a profit of $4,900 ($14,000 - $9,100).

Of course you'd be in the hole for a loss if you only had the one winner per year. But two wins would be profitable.

However there is a much mor important issue here - and a trap for new traders with big $$ signs in their eyes:-

Since with such an extremely low win rate you could go several years before you get another win. Even if you had an historical average of two wins per year - this does not mean you won't get a bad run of losses lasting several years. Statistically you could easily go years between wins - the average number of wins per year is NOT the risk here it is the fact that you can go several years without a win- easily. Hence with such a low win rate even the 0.35% risked per trade is suicidal in the context of the risk v return.

This form of trading has the potential to do your head in. Don't let greed cloud your judgement.

So I most definitely would agree with you don't kick this can down the road any further and waste your money with this system.
  • #7,055
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:06am Oct 19, 2012 10:06am
Quoting geomink
Hey Doya,

how do you manage the SL?

Thanks
ea default is 5, but I set it to 2 pips, or 1 on some...
  • #7,056
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:26pm Oct 19, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting timmy
Yes - sorry I mistook your 0.7% to be across each trade. However I believe you'll find your figures still to be incorrect - even if you are risking this amount across two trades (ie $17.50 per pip rather than $35 based on your example).

Since your loss would be 260 days x 2pips = 520 pips loss over one year (given your assumption of the other half of the trades breaking even). If, as you correctly state, your pip value at $17.50 then the loss would be $9,100 NOT $18,200. Hence if you were to win twice per year you'd make a [b]profit...
_____

Timmy. Thank you for the correction, and comments.

I am thinking that choosing a more optimal entry point might yield better results. Identifying new high's and Lows on the hour chart immediately come to mind. These are points where markets traditionally break or bounce. It would be interesting to test this over the major pairs.

I am was also glad to see the recent reminder on trailing stops.

If anything, this forum has taught me to be cognizant of strangling losses and letting profits run.

Thanks to Tony for that.
  • #7,057
  • Oct 19, 2012 1:41pm Oct 19, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting doyathink
I made a few changes based on backtesting, though it was not tick data, just mt4 minute data...

am using Zen Leow's excellent ea to execute, but occasionally try to add manually, too...

these lead to less or no need to refund, but may mean we miss the occasional epic win...

default except:


1. move to 5 pips when 10 pips reached
2. 60 pip trailing stop, or 140 pip ts...
3. 3 charts open trading Frankfurt, L and NY Open,
and 2 hours after Tokyo, London and Ny open

only been doing it month like that, but had 100, 150, and 20 pip...
No this is quite interesting.

Assume an opening balance at the beginning of the month of 10 000

You take six trades a day (132 trades). Assume half of them are break-even and the other half lose 7% per trade. Losses for the month will be $70 x 66 trades = $4620. Your profits are 270 pips x $35 (pip value) = $9450. $9450-$4620=$4830 PROFIT!!! Please tell me Ive got my figures wrong!

Now we're cooking!

You method looks much better (based on one month's results) than waiting for what could well be a year for a 400 pip move.

Psychologically, this makes all the difference.
  • #7,058
  • Oct 19, 2012 9:51pm Oct 19, 2012 9:51pm
Quoting timmy
So I most definitely would agree with you don't kick this can down the road any further and waste your money with this system.

excellent, after 7000 posts on the thread.. that is the conclusion, very well
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,059
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:46am Oct 20, 2012 10:46am
i lost 46000$ at the casino yesterday, way to go!@
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #7,060
  • Oct 20, 2012 10:47am Oct 20, 2012 10:47am
my wife shows no compassion I'm gonna call my mother
Invest in alarm clocks
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