AUD/USD

Pinbar on weekly Dow

Another Weekly close above 786 yesss!! but I agree this could be a range play 786-618 until the next risk off event comes into play sending us higher or the leg of risk comes back giving us a continuation lower

Those fib numbers or price numbers? I can see 786 working both ways, so that's why I ask.

that pic had multiple Fibs one from the actual breakout some time ago.

Here is the more basic one YTD Hi/LO weekly close above 78.6 and we are again trading between 61.8-78.6
I think we spoke sometime ago we traded exactly to 88.6 before hitting this consolidation range so that will be other resistance if/when we clse below 786

Wave 4 end around 1.0300.Wave 5 should start and extend above 1.0413

is this the wave pattern your talking about
the next fib confluence starts at 1.0233 so if it breaks this wave patterns than it is invalidated

If breaks 1.0295 it is invalidation

cool i will note that level thx for the heads up

1.0292 is top of wave 1

NEXT week's budget update will reveal spending cuts and revenue measures worth an extraordinary $4 billion this financial year - a task made all the more difficult by the fact the year has only eight months to run.
Shocking revenue downgrades to be included in the update reveal that since May, deteriorating international conditions and collapsing export prices have knocked $21 billion from projected tax revenue over the forward estimates and $4 billion from forecast tax revenue this financial year.
Without action the downgrades would wipe out this year's planned $1.5 billion surplus and those planned for the next two years as well.
Writing in today's Herald, the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, reaffirms his commitment to balance the budget next week but says he will cut with care, doing "everything possible to protect jobs and help pave the way for classic Labor reforms".
"In balancing the budget, the Gillard government has made sensible spending cuts while winding back inefficient and outdated tax concessions. We have balanced fiscal discipline with continuing investments in people - our most valuable natural resource - through vital reforms in skills and education, a national broadband network and the national disability insurance scheme," he writes.
The Herald understands the revenue downgrades overwhelmingly result from weaker international conditions. The forecasts for Australia remain strong with economic growth of 3 to 3.5 per cent over the next two years, continuing low unemployment and contained inflation.
The publication of the virtually unchanged domestic economic forecasts will put further pressure on the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, who has already been asked to explain why his predictions of "almost unimaginable" inflation and job losses resulting from the carbon tax have not materialised.
A Bloomberg survey of 25 market economists before next Wednesday's release of the first inflation data since the tax was introduced on July 1 finds most expect a low annual inflation rate of close to 1.6 per cent.The tax collection data suggests that if anything, the domestic economy is somewhat stronger than expected at budget time. Collections from wages and the goods and services tax are ahead of projections.
Dramatically lower company tax collections account for most of the $21 billion write-down.
A Treasury official, David Gruen, told a Senate hearing on Thursday that spot prices of iron ore, thermal coal and coking coal had fallen 15 to 35 per cent since the May budget. These were the three big commodities driving Australia's terms of trade. The budget had forecast a fall in the terms of trade of 5.75 per cent.
The update will say that although some of the falls have been partly reversed they are no longer expected to return to the levels forecast in May.
The government will revise down revenue forecasts for the minerals resource rent tax and the petroleum resource rent tax in addition to cutting forecast company tax collections.
It will also revise down forecast income from non-resource companies, acknowledging generally weaker corporate profits. Profits from unincorporated businesses will also be revised down.

Down it goes.

And 1.0256 area is what I'll be watching for.

It looks like more and more retailers are going short on AUD now. Probably best if I hold my AUD/JPY longs a little while longer... LOL jk

Still can't see markets creating new lows until after elections.

My view for next week. Im bullish for the short term. If price retraces back to 1.0270 region (blue box) im going to buy. Nice demand zone,~50 retrace of current leg. It would be nice to bounce of the downward trendline(red). Plus, what im reading from the fundamentals is that things are picking for a sort term for aussie. This trade needs to go live next week, otherwise im going to cancel it. Potential rate cut next month.

According to Sequential Pattern Recognition , given an opening between 1.0347 and 1.0299 at 0000 GMT on Mon. , 10/22 Aud/Usd will be lower for the day ending at 2359 GMT same day. This system does not speak to magnitude only direction, therefore stops and/or TP's are noit available. This forcast is most suitable for daytraders and binary option players, rather than longer term position traders

Hey my friends.

Looks like we are right back to the areas we were playing after that breakout of the 1.0294

Massive sell-off in equities led by a 27 pt drop in the S&P Spearheaded the decline. The last 5 sessions we have created a channel from 1.0201-1.0410

The market currently sits at 1.0332 with all the various important numbers just below. the larger flip zone is the 1.0325/1.0283 with 1.0317 and 1.0294/1.0304 being zones within the larger zone

The dailies still are pointing upwards in spite of the Friday sell-off on the ozzy and Kiwi. it will stay this way until the 1.0283 is broken and closed back under.

Depending on what TF's everyone is playing position accordingly

to the topside the 1.0351/60 will again act as a key breakout area to resume the rally.

Most of my attention on the open will be via the Aussie and Yen pairs since it is a holiday in New Zealand

Good luck guys

Wulf

The AUDUSD had a strong week rising as high as +195 pips. The Aussie dollar although giving back some gains late in the week still held onto a 114 pip gain for the week.

The aud/usd has been able to shake off the recent rate cut and has begun an uptrend. This is currently the first pullback in the uptrend so it remains to be seen if it will hold or not. Looks like some very nice setups long on the daily time frame and short on the 4 hour developing coming into the start of the week.

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it is time for a down move ?

EUR/USD is going to gap down. Currently at 1.2978. Roughly 40 pip gap down from Friday's close.

AUD/USD should also gap down as well, normally a Gap down is short term bullish after opening.