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  • #54,301
  • Oct 19, 2012 9:43am Oct 19, 2012 9:43am
Your right it is normal from a small move like this retrace to close below the 50% but its not normal to close below(FAIL)
YTD 61.8% level from hi/lo
or how about the LAST years high and low closing below 618%
Or the 6/1 bottom to the 1.623ish run up closing below 78.6%
I agree until we break below 1.02 than this could be areas to buy dips but if we are trading anywhere near 1.02 by the next meeting it wont hold and 1.0050 is happening

its not a coincidence when these fib confluence areas are bunched up and the market fails or bounces off them and when they fail and go down or up the open air between the next area of confluence makes for great moves.
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  • #54,302
  • Oct 19, 2012 9:44am Oct 19, 2012 9:44am
Quoting bguguen
And AUDUSD sell off happened in New York Session... i wonder why... OH right cuz NY manages most of the USD flow... and let me see.. oh yea Everything against USD fell.... so my theory stands.... AUDUSD trades most actively during Australia and New York period....
u didnt get what im saying i understand when it moves but it didnt really move even though bears came back...
  • #54,303
  • Oct 19, 2012 9:59am Oct 19, 2012 9:59am
audusd should now resume upwards... gold hit its target at 1716 and bounced.
  • #54,304
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:00am Oct 19, 2012 10:00am
Guess we'll see then. I'm fundamentally aussie bullish, and see no chance at all for a rate cut in November. The European situation is improving and so is the US economy. Figures from China just came out and there were no hard landing, I expect the China economy and demand to pick up in the fourth quarter.

The Fed is now just starting its monthly 50 billion MBS program, the ECB has the Mario backstopping sovereign debt, and China has cut RRR and has already done limited stimulus with the possibility of doing more.

When you have 3 central banks easing, I don't think the aussie will go sub parity any time soon.

Have a happy weekend! I'm going to bed =D
  • #54,305
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:08am Oct 19, 2012 10:08am
Quoting sidhujag
u didnt get what im saying i understand when it moves but it didnt really move even though bears came back...
oh okay now i get it...
yea i think the bears were cautious testing the daily support... when daily support broke and didnt get back up.... all hell broke loose....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,306
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:10am Oct 19, 2012 10:10am
Quoting Iro
Guess we'll see then. I'm fundamentally aussie bullish, and see no chance at all for a rate cut in November. The European situation is improving and so is the US economy. Figures from China just came out and there were no hard landing, I expect the China economy and demand to pick up in the fourth quarter.

The Fed is now just starting its monthly 50 billion MBS program, the ECB has the Mario backstopping sovereign debt, and China has cut RRR and has already done limited stimulus with the possibility of doing more.

When you have 3 central...
Actually Forth Quarter is always a Bad Quarter... if China really needed to pick up... they should've picked up at Q3... so their Pick up at Q3 only managed to reach Expectation is something worrying.... in fact i am not so rosy about China matching expectation at 7.4% while Previous is at 7.5%
means a steep drop could happen at Q4
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,307
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:27am Oct 19, 2012 10:27am
Jan 2011 9.8% Today 7.4% (actually 7.0% if ppl look at the electricity use but that’s neither here nor there) Yes China put the breaks on INTENTIONALLY but they did it at a time when growth was slowing around the world now the new normal is sub 8.0 GDP for several years. That same Stimulus in 2008 has made the numbers better in 2010. This new stimulus wont even e felt for at least middle of 2013 at the earliest. This hard landing adverted mode economist tout is based on theory until the moment you see an uptick in GDP/CPI/Imports in the releases the hard landing scenario is still in the realm.

As for Europe there is less headline risk and Greece is on the back burner, but the situation is not any better than a year ago. Non-performing loans out of Spain is at 24% Greek/Spanish Unemployment are still rising (more slowly) and not falling.

All he CB’s have been easing since the crash but just look at the Dow when each QE was ended A sharp decline, Look at the moves after each new announcement less upside than the prior program. Just because US does well does not mean China is doing well compare the two indices and you will see what I am talking about. Yes if US does well confidence around the world COULD pick up and give rise to new money coming in internationally but again this is all theory and based on an assumption

On to rate cuts, lets be clear this is not a matter of slowing growth RBA is looking at they are trying to ease pressures from the Interest rate sensitive sectors in Australia who have been angry at the RBA for some time on not taking a more proactive approach on pricing pressures.

So your thesis if I am correct is (if I am wrong please correct me)
Central banks will continue to support the markets so a retracement in say the S&P of 5-8% sending AUD/USD lower is unlikely
China stimulus will work this time and the markets will grow again to levels of +9GDP
Because growth internationally is starting to come back the RBA won’t cut rates even though domestically certain sectors are suffering from the margin pressures and the high rate?

You’re a Bull I am a bear I can’t change your mind and that is fine because the market is made up of different perceptions but I am wrong in my analysis if we reach 1.05 . Where do you consider your analysis incorrect at what price?
  • #54,308
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:31am Oct 19, 2012 10:31am
Quoting jplazard
Jan 2011 9.8% Today 7.4% (actually 7.0% if ppl look at the electricity use but that’s neither here nor there) Yes China put the breaks on INTENTIONALLY but they did it at a time when growth was slowing around the world now the new normal is sub 8.0 GDP for several years. That same Stimulus in 2008 has made the numbers better in 2010. This new stimulus wont even e felt for at least middle of 2013 at the earliest. This hard landing adverted mode economist tout is based on theory until the moment you see an uptick in GDP/CPI/Imports in the releases...
AMEN oh my god... you just spilled out almost everything in my mind that ive been bearish about AUDUSD.... wtf....
BTW one thing i need to warn..... China easing is a very very bad news....
Inflation is at ridiculous levels in China and easing is gona weaken the currency even further causing EVEN more problems with inflationary pressure, and inflation in china means their housing market will become a bubble... and we all know what housing market bubble did to economies have we??

I rest my case... in these times.... the Chinese economy should actually LIMIT their easing, let their Chinese Currency Appreciate so their domestic market can pick up Demand, THEN when you have demand, you can increase easing

Monetary Policy Easing should only occur when theres an EXCESS demand of your Currency, if theres an Excess Supply of your Currency, Adding MORE supply only worsens the economy... You're just pushing the economy further into disequilibrium.... much like Excess Excess Supply.... which to china it could be good in the sense their Export will be competitive... but bad as Inflation wiill literally turn their money into worthless piece of shit....

But still the good sense of china's export being competitive, still relies on how the world economic situatino could still demand chinese exports.... in these touch time people are just saving up money... and government are doing retarded things to make the tough saved money worth even less....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,309
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:42am Oct 19, 2012 10:42am
Iro have a great weekend and I agree with you 100% if the next China GDP number comes out 7.8+ or higher than the bottom is in. Looking at Iron ore and Baltic index they have come back violently so how this will affect AU miners in expanding again is what I will watch for.

The more iron ore projects that were put on delay from this drop in ore coming back online the more I will believe the growth story. But as I mentioned before Expectations and Underlying reality have diverged so much that we are in a period of lowering expectations.
  • #54,310
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:45am Oct 19, 2012 10:45am
Quoting jplazard
Iro have a great weekend and I agree with you 100% if the next China GDP number comes out 7.8+ or higher than the bottom is in. Looking at Iron ore and Baltic index they have come back violently so how this will affect AU miners in expanding again is what I will watch for.

The more iron ore projects that were put on delay from this drop in ore coming back online the more I will believe the growth story. But as I mentioned before Expectations and Underlying reality have diverged so much that we are in a period of lowering expectations.
im still bearish none the less... something fishy going on in china and i can smell it...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,311
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:48am Oct 19, 2012 10:48am
the validity of the numbers are in question but the market will take what it can get. At least China is not as bad as Argentina on their reporting lol
  • #54,312
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:49am Oct 19, 2012 10:49am
Quoting bguguen
im still bearish none the less... something fishy going on in china and i can smell it...
I believe the China bubble has already burst.. the top is in for them.
  • #54,313
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:49am Oct 19, 2012 10:49am
From the Man himself: I have this on my wall and it is the ultimate map for macro investing in my own mind Soros explains it better than any market participant out there from the very negative to the overly optimistic market participants.





I have sketched out a typical boom/bust sequence. It can be followed by two curves that follow more or less the same direction. One represents Stock prices, and the other, earnings per share. It would be natural to envision the earnings curve as a measure of the underlying trend, and the divergence between the two curves as an indication of the underlying bias. The relationship is much more complex. The earnings curve incorporates not only the underlying trend but also the influence of stock prices on that trend: the prevailing bias is expressed only partially by the divergence between the two curves.-partially ist is already reflected in those curves. Concepts that are only partially observable are extremely difficult to work with: that is why we have chosen variables that can be observed and quantified-although, as we shall see later, the quantification of earnings per share can be very misleading. For present purposes, we shall assume that the ‘fundamentals’ in which investors are interested are properly measured by earnings per share.


A typical path for the two curves may be as follows. At first, recognition of an underlying trend is lagging but the trend is strong enough to manifest itself in earnings per share. When the underlying trend is finally recognized, it is reinforced by rising expectations. Doubts arise, but the trend survives. Alternatively, the trend waivers BUT reasserts itself. Such testing may be repeated several times, but here I show it only once. Eventually, conviction develops and it is no longer shaken by a setback in the earnings trend. Expectations become excessive, and fail to be sustained by reality. This bias is recognized as such and expectations are lowered. Stock prices lose their last pro and plunge. The underlying trend is reversed, reinforcing the decline. Eventually, the pessimism becomes overdone and the market stabilizes
  • #54,314
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:53am Oct 19, 2012 10:53am
Quoting sidhujag
I believe the China bubble has already burst.. the top is in for them.
so no reason for Aussie to be strong in the long term.... their biggest importer bursted...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,315
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:01am Oct 19, 2012 11:01am
Quoting bguguen
so no reason for Aussie to be strong in the long term.... their biggest importer bursted...
Yup... long and med term that's what I see... but market won't turn until max amount of speculators are slaughtered first.
  • #54,316
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:02am Oct 19, 2012 11:02am
ES target 1340ish
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  • #54,317
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:03am Oct 19, 2012 11:03am
Quoting sidhujag
Yup... long and med term that's what I see... but market won't turn until max amount of speculators are slaughtered first.
but heres the trick... whats max?? no fucking clue is my answer....
i mean look at the housing market.... if the housing market collapse could delay 1 more year the effect would be FAR more devastating than it collapsing back in 2008....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,318
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:08am Oct 19, 2012 11:08am
Quoting bguguen
but heres the trick... whats max?? no fucking clue is my answer....
i mean look at the housing market.... if the housing market collapse could delay 1 more year the effect would be FAR more devastating than it collapsing back in 2008....
What I mean is that I don't believe that 1.06 was the short covering rally event that shifts long term trends.
  • #54,319
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:10am Oct 19, 2012 11:10am
if you get a string of cuts out of the RBA the housing market crash will be delayed again. Banking portfolios and their dealings with Miners/developers is what I am watching

Then the Banking/Mortgage relationship which comes under the microscope. That is far off though as for a time frame not sure because the first shoe in Australia to drop won't be real estate market
  • #54,320
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:03pm Oct 19, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I'm confident we are near the top of the hill.

We may have gone over the top of the hill, but it may be a while before we're actually off the hill and into the canyons. Looks like /6A can still go down, but I'm not too sure about /DX going up and up.
Play the players, not the cards.
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