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AUD/USD

  • #54,281
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:07am Oct 19, 2012 12:07am
Quoting Wulfgar
Im good brother... killin it as of late... Ive just been hammering on a new platform Im learning so I havent been posting much... trading Kiwi/ozzy/yen/ES a ton though
Nice! That's what I like to hear bro. You mind me asking which platform you're using now?
  • #54,282
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:20am Oct 19, 2012 12:20am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Nice! That's what I like to hear bro. You mind me asking which platform you're using now?
Its a prop platform.... trades futures/forex/equities/options/ etc...

If you are interested shoot me a PM...
  • #54,283
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:31am Oct 19, 2012 12:31am
Quoting Iro
Anyone else seeing a bullish divergence developing? I'm gonna jump the gun abit here and go long with a smaller position.
Nope, not me... im expecting a move down to atleast 1.0300
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,284
  • Oct 19, 2012 6:51am Oct 19, 2012 6:51am
FURTHER EVIDENCE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LOWER INTEREST RATES

· The Commonwealth Government is likely to release its Mid Year Economic and Financial Outlook (MYEFO) any day. Comments from the Treasurer suggest the Government will continue to target a small underlying cash surplus in 2012-13 after a AUD43.7bn (3% of GDP) deficit in 2011-12. This means the Government will need to implement several billion dollars of further savings to offset lower-than-expected revenues due largely to lower iron ore and coal prices. The latter have affected resource companies’ profitability and led to some scaling back of mining investment. Savings will also offset new spending on recent policy announcements including offshore processing of asylum seekers and the 45% increase in the humanitarian migrant intake. The savings task will be reduced somewhat by dividends of AUD300m from Medibank Private and AUD500m from the Reserve Bank. Media reports suggest savings will come from cuts to university grants among other things and new revenue may be raised by lifting tobacco excise. The Government recently also announced AUD550m of savings annually from further cuts to public sector spending.
· We expect a further modest tightening in fiscal policy as a result of these new measures. At the time of the Budget in May we estimated that fiscal policy could drag on GDP growth in 2012-13 to the tune of ¾–1ppts. Measures in MYEFO are likely to push this estimate modestly higher. The stance of fiscal policy at the moment emphasises the importance of monetary policy in buffering the economy from softer conditions. We continue to expect a strong chance that the RBA will lower the cash rate by 25bps in early November.
· Our expectation of a modest Q3 CPI inflation print next week also supports the case for lower interest rates. We expect underlying CPI inflation in Q3 to have been 0.5% q/q and 2.2% y/y, which is at the lower end of the RBA’s 2-3% target. The introduction of the carbon tax on 1 July is expected to have boosted headline CPI inflation to 1.0% q/q and 1.5% y/y.
  • #54,285
  • Oct 19, 2012 6:54am Oct 19, 2012 6:54am
Even euro is weakening - Aud is strong as an ox -

Teflon currency.
  • #54,286
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:04am Oct 19, 2012 7:04am
Quoting maximmm
Even euro is weakening - Aud is strong as an ox -

Teflon currency.
Calm urself bro..... Audusd is not moving cuz its not the new york australian trading time....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,287
  • Oct 19, 2012 7:08am Oct 19, 2012 7:08am
Buy AUD/USD at 1.0350, sl at 1.0320, Tp: close the position before the market close for the weekend.
Good luck & happy pips.
forexpillariscipline & patience Trader
  • #54,288
  • Oct 19, 2012 8:17am Oct 19, 2012 8:17am
Aussie also dead as a door knob today. Sellers got no strength, buyers all waiting lower for the correction. Maybe weekend profit taking will provide some volatility.
  • #54,289
  • Oct 19, 2012 8:40am Oct 19, 2012 8:40am
Aud is dead - thus replacing JPY^^

I think we can start trading 10 pip range
  • #54,290
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:07am Oct 19, 2012 10:07am
Quoting bguguen
im back in business... my GBPUSD shorts are well in profits and closed soooo
worries on GBPUSD diminished now i can focus on AUDUSD...
For AUD/USD what do you think about bottom of today?
  • #54,291
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:16am Oct 19, 2012 10:16am
At what price are buyers waiting for a correction? and if it goes below that than its not a correction but a new move down going into the Nov cut?
  • #54,292
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:25am Oct 19, 2012 10:25am
as mentioned last night if Dollar can break the resistance (former support) which it did

and AU futures breaks the Support (which it did)

Than the Gap fill is around the corner coming to a market near you
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  • #54,293
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:25am Oct 19, 2012 10:25am
Quoting ioan.bade
For AUD/USD what do you think about bottom of today?
I think it's heading back to the bottom of the consolidation area at 1.02 and possibly the bear channel support at 1.015, but as far as today is concerned I wouldn't be surprised to see another 30 points to 1.03 which seems like both a reasonable target and a reasonable place to expect a bounce.

That said, I prefer the NZD/USD short today as both AUD/USD and NZD/USD seem equally weak (as can be seen by looking at the AUD/NZD pair going nowhere but sideways) but because the Kiwi is roughly a 20% discount to USD compared to the Aussie being nearly at parity, if both fall equally you'll actually make 20% more from a NZD/USD trade.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #54,294
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:49am Oct 19, 2012 10:49am
Quoting ioan.bade
For AUD/USD what do you think about bottom of today?
I dont know is the answer, this thing look ready to test 1.02 again
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,295
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:51am Oct 19, 2012 10:51am
Quoting bguguen
Calm urself bro..... Audusd is not moving cuz its not the new york australian trading time....
no its not moving because sellers are busy with other things.. There is no selling interest this is a normal retrace. I said earlier that bears are here today so you should have an idea of whats weak and whats not
  • #54,296
  • Oct 19, 2012 10:57am Oct 19, 2012 10:57am
So no 0.95? in your purview anymore.

I feel so alone in this camp now
yes this is a normal retrace from the big move this week, but this whole move up since the bottoming after Cut is a wave retrace in itself

From the recent high area of 1.0623ish to the Cut low we closed right below the 50% retrace not to mention Es keeps failing on the channel upside Fade THE HYPE.
  • #54,297
  • Edited 11:37am Oct 19, 2012 11:22am | Edited 11:37am
This is where I reload my longs =D

BTW its very normal to not close above the 50 fib as that's where everyone took profits. I know I did. IMO this is the just the beginning of the wave, its reaching buy zone now from here down to 10280.
  • #54,298
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:25am Oct 19, 2012 11:25am
Quoting sidhujag
no its not moving because sellers are busy with other things.. There is no selling interest this is a normal retrace. I said earlier that bears are here today so you should have an idea of whats weak and whats not
And AUDUSD sell off happened in New York Session... i wonder why... OH right cuz NY manages most of the USD flow... and let me see.. oh yea Everything against USD fell.... so my theory stands.... AUDUSD trades most actively during Australia and New York period....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,299
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:26am Oct 19, 2012 11:26am
Quoting Iro
This is where I reload my longs =D
This is where i look for SHorting opportunities on Rallies....
AUDUSD still in downtrend.
AUDUSD it difficulty at the 50% fibo retrace from the fall down from 1.05 to 1.02, that should show some concern for bearish continuation
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,300
  • Oct 19, 2012 11:37am Oct 19, 2012 11:37am
Look at Oil ES Copper Palladium(hs almost breaking through on daily)
the markets had an oppertunity to break out and failed AGAIN. Goog risk off is the mood in the air only AAPL can save the market on 10.25
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