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AUD/USD

  • #54,261
  • Oct 18, 2012 7:44pm Oct 18, 2012 7:44pm
Quoting jplazard
Gold shipments to China Surge

correlation could pick up soon between the two if this continues and revenues start to show more on the sheets
Interesting!
  • #54,262
  • Oct 18, 2012 8:15pm Oct 18, 2012 8:15pm
Have long been a fan of JPlazard's insights into the AUD and his position trading. I thus at first struggled a bit with some of Sidhujag's bullish views on AUD/USD and probably only now understand them a bit better having read recent posts on AUD/JPY & USD/JPY as result of discussion between Sidhujag & 100 Pips. All this highlights the value of differing views and willingness to share & aid learning. Big question is the timing.

Personally (living in Australia) it's easier for me to see the need for weaker AUD and see this as very real and short to medium term. Happy to position trade, I am shorting the recent rise in AUD/USD and will continue to add positions even if it goes over 1.06 (my position sizing and money management allow this with target area around 1.02, thanks also to some of gnomoney's recent analysis. I can see it going lower at some point but already have other positions set for this and am currently aiming to add positions to profit if it continues ranging 1.02 to 1.06 as that's been a weakness in my trading in conditions since late July) It is very tempting to diversify into AUD/JPY or USD/JPY following that discussion but am trying to realise some gains from AUD trading first. Good luck to all and keep the discussion going!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #54,263
  • Oct 18, 2012 8:40pm Oct 18, 2012 8:40pm
Quoting dab
Have long been a fan of JPlazard's insights into the AUD and his position trading. I thus at first struggled a bit with some of Sidhujag's bullish views on AUD/USD and probably only now understand them a bit better having read recent posts on AUD/JPY & USD/JPY as result of discussion between Sidhujag & 100 Pips. All this highlights the value of differing views and willingness to share & aid learning. Big question is the timing.

Personally (living in Australia) it's easier for me to see the need for weaker AUD and see this as very real and short...
Dab,
just keep this view as a reference of the waves that aud.usd will most likely achieve.....

whenever 1.08 or 0,96 is touched it is definite that it will touch the other side....
blue as big wave
pink as small wave
red as potential next big wave to 1.08

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auhsd4bluepinkred.gif Size: 25 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #54,264
  • Oct 18, 2012 8:57pm Oct 18, 2012 8:57pm
Quoting gnomoneey
Dab,
just keep this view as a reference of the waves that aud.usd will most likely achieve.....

whenever 1.08 or 0,96 is touched it is definite that it will touch the other side....
blue as big wave
pink as small wave
red as potential next big wave to 1.08

Attachment
I can see Aud hitting 1.03 first prior to next move up - 1.044 or even 1.06? At the same time, I also see Aud first hitting 0.98 prior to the next move up to 1.08 and higher due to the triangle formation - a triangle will be complete only after each side is hit 3 times - right now the bottom has been touched only 2 times.

On the whole we agree, but timing wise, we seem to disagree.
  • #54,265
  • Oct 18, 2012 9:07pm Oct 18, 2012 9:07pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hi Kadc,

Thanks for your input. When I said 88 I was actually referring to AUD/JPY. This was actually hit earlier this year...

I would like to share another good article which supports my view from a fundamental stand point:

Why the yen could be today's best currency trade
by Jack Crooks
Saturday, June 9, 2012 at 7:30am


If you are a long-term player who has some patience, I consider this the best single trade setup among the major foreign exchange pairs: A core long-term long position in USD (U.S. dollar)/JPY (Japanese yen)....
Good article 100P.

Been watching the whole NY session and Yen (U/J) just move few pips then back to 79.30 from risk-on to complete risk-off and bad Unemployment Claim which is unusual. So most likely the money is coming out of safe haven.
  • #54,266
  • Oct 18, 2012 9:18pm Oct 18, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting Ken A
Good article 100P.

Been watching the whole NY session and Yen (U/J) just move few pips then back to 79.30 from risk-on to complete risk-off and bad Unemployment Claim which is unusual. So most likely the money is coming out of safe haven.
Hey Ken!

This article was from June of this year, however, I have been under the impression that the "Japanese Dilemna" would not surface until the Eurozone crisis has been resolved, or at least "delayed" and kicked down the road...

I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some of the fundamental problems for Japan start to surface via main stream media. That will really give it the push we (and Japan) need!

Japan has to weaken the Yen somehow or another but it would be more beneficial for them to let the market sort it out rather than BOJ intervention.

As stated earlier, we have already broken the 8 month Daily down trend with conviction. Next is the weekly TL at roughly 80.40. 200 SMA is sitting at 79.70 so that is my next target for U/J.
  • #54,267
  • Oct 18, 2012 9:18pm Oct 18, 2012 9:18pm
today looks to be a bear day so well see how strong they are. look to get in on a rise pre london or ny.
  • #54,268
  • Oct 18, 2012 9:36pm Oct 18, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey Ken!

This article was from June of this year, however, I have been under the impression that the "Japanese Dilemna" would not surface until the Eurozone crisis has been resolved, or at least "delayed" and kicked down the road...

I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some of the fundamental problems for Japan start to surface via main stream media. That will really give it the push we (and Japan) need!

Japan has to weaken the Yen somehow or another but it would be more beneficial for them to let the market sort...
I will take some off the table around 79.70 then re-enter on pullback. It's been rejected around that mark two months ago. Will be watching the weekly TL too. BOJ might not have to do anything with the rate it is going for now other than the similar BB communication tools will be easing end of November few days ago.



Quoting sidhujag
today looks to be a bear day so well see how strong they are. look to get in on a rise pre london or ny.
I will watch news from EZ that normally sets the sentiment and US Existing Home Sales. Also Friday is normally bear day unless we have a very good news which is unlikely.

During normal bear days, U/J and U/CAD strengthen which didn't happen in NY session but let's see. Should be interesting.
  • #54,269
  • Oct 18, 2012 9:48pm Oct 18, 2012 9:48pm
well ucad did hit my murray math line at 65 and bounced so chances are there will be a bear to complete the wave
  • #54,270
  • Oct 18, 2012 9:59pm Oct 18, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting maximmm
I can see Aud hitting 1.03 first prior to next move up - 1.044 or even 1.06? At the same time, I also see Aud first hitting 0.98 prior to the next move up to 1.08 and higher due to the triangle formation - a triangle will be complete only after each side is hit 3 times - right now the bottom has been touched only 2 times.

On the whole we agree, but timing wise, we seem to disagree.
brother max all i can say is only time will tell...

good luck and many green pips to you...

thanks,

G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #54,271
  • Oct 18, 2012 10:54pm Oct 18, 2012 10:54pm
im back in business... my GBPUSD shorts are well in profits and closed soooo
worries on GBPUSD diminished now i can focus on AUDUSD...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,272
  • Oct 18, 2012 11:02pm Oct 18, 2012 11:02pm
welcome back,

i miss you.

saw your Trade Explorer today, nice come back


Quoting bguguen
im back in business... my GBPUSD shorts are well in profits and closed soooo
worries on GBPUSD diminished now i can focus on AUDUSD...
  • #54,273
  • Oct 18, 2012 11:06pm Oct 18, 2012 11:06pm
You want to talk about S/R with Corr and a side of Fib here it is:

Dollar Index in normal and AU futures in Grey

We break a bit lower on AU futures the gap fill is right around the corner. Dollar index is worth nothing broke through but On a daily has not Closed below the 78.6% from YTD Hi/Low

Lookout below for AUD/USD if dollar breaks this new resistance and AU futures breaks this support
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-18-TOS_CHARTS.jpg1.jpg Size: 150 KB
  • #54,274
  • Oct 18, 2012 11:12pm Oct 18, 2012 11:12pm
News to Note from the ASX today. Off all have a good one see you at NY

Brazil about to flood Iron ore market-Study
Iron ore 20month peak
New iron ore project
Shipping containers come up Empty
NAB bracing for a possible downturn
Gold shipments to China Surge
Property slump to hit Stockland
Brazil on Interest Rates
Atlas Iron (AGO)
Indian Steel Sector
Iron Ore report
More mining jobs lost
Vale losing to Rio Tinto
Sinosteel To delay Iron ore Mine
Australia/India Uranium trade soon?
World’s Largest Iron ore ship this year
  • #54,275
  • Oct 18, 2012 11:20pm Oct 18, 2012 11:20pm
I believe I now understand the reasoning why the price is expected to move to 1.015 and then up to 1.06. This would form a descending triangle - 3 touches at 1.015 and 3 touches (and a break) at the descending line.
  • #54,276
  • Oct 18, 2012 11:40pm Oct 18, 2012 11:40pm
Anyone else seeing a bullish divergence developing? I'm gonna jump the gun abit here and go long with a smaller position.
  • #54,277
  • Oct 18, 2012 11:47pm Oct 18, 2012 11:47pm
Quoting Iro
Anyone else seeing a bullish divergence developing? I'm gonna jump the gun abit here and go long with a smaller position.


I'm still long AUD/JPY and short EUR/AUD.

Going to scale in one more EUR/AUD short once the H1 shows over bought with Williams %. Probably going to be over bought on H1 by London open...
  • #54,278
  • Oct 18, 2012 11:48pm Oct 18, 2012 11:48pm
Later brother. Have a good one

Areas towatch are the 356/332 as support from an intraday perspective. This rollback was more of a 4 hour move. The daily still wants more topside. Eyes on the 360 as. Trigger and the 0400/0410 topside to open the 0432/0443 key resistance.

Quoting jplazard
News to Note from the ASX today. Off all have a good one see you at NY

Brazil about to flood Iron ore market-Study
Iron ore 20month peak
New iron ore project
[url="http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2012/10/17/545794_latest-news.html"]Shipping...
  • #54,279
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:01am Oct 19, 2012 12:01am
Quoting Wulfgar
Later brother. Have a good one

Areas towatch are the 356/332 as support from an intraday perspective. This rollback was more of a 4 hour move. The daily still wants more topside. Eyes on the 360 as. Trigger and the 0400/0410 topside to open the 0432/0443 key resistance.
How you doing Wulf?
  • #54,280
  • Oct 19, 2012 12:03am Oct 19, 2012 12:03am
Quoting 100PipsADay
How you doing Wulf?
Im good brother... killin it as of late... Ive just been hammering on a new platform Im learning so I havent been posting much... trading Kiwi/ozzy/yen/ES a ton though
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