AUD/USD

After all that China data and London trading so far we are STILL below the 50% retrace from the recent hi/low

Look to NY close for confirmation the supports/Resistance come NY open are going to be different than the Asia/London S/R levels. If we close below on Daily 50% ohhh watch out..

Filled at 04 0410 still looking for a pop to top out at 1.0435 but hey I have a nice line so I won't complain.

it never close below that on my 5m chart for the past 5 hours..

but its time to break that support line..

The last time we were at these levels it dropped 60 or so pips after hitting the 23.6 fib @ 1038.

So I hoping it'll break that stubborn 10373 support and come down to 1032-1033 so I can reload some longs.

I don't think it will hold up to positive US jobless data so be careful if you're long. I took a short at 1.04 when the US dollar index failed to breach 79 for the second time and RSI turned positive on the hourly chart.

...but it will all be decided at 8:30 and 10am.

Hi
Please do u have idea, how much this will more drop? thanks

How annoying, hourly pin bar reversal =(

Now I might have to buy on 1.045 break.

Just listen to me.
Aud is ready for another 150 pip upswing.
It's going to 1.0500

how the hell do you even news trade through this US data....one is bad, one is good lol

If the US dollar index can't penetrate 79.0, all the US pairs are likely to fall for a while. There's not a lot of support for AUD/USD until the 1.025 area so I wouldn't be surprised to see this pair and NZD/USD give back all the gains they made yesterday.

...scratch that. Or at least put it on hold until we see what happens at 1.04. AUD/USD seems to have reversed, but it needs to clear 1.04 first. If it bounces I'll go back to AUD/USD short again, and if it passes through I'll wait for an entry point to go long.

What's your time frame and entry point for that move? US data, manipulated though it may be, is more likely to push the USD up which means for the near future this pair is going down.

...and yet, suddenly, with no fundamental reason to support it that I can find, AUD and NZD have suddenly and fearsomely changed direction just as the USD index crossed over to definitively bullish territory which, by necessity of how the USD index functions, should have forced all the USD pairs in favour of USD.

...and no sooner had I written that than it crossed back into being definitively bearish. When I see a flip-flop like that, I won't take any new positions until a new market session, which in this case means when the Asian session starts.

I exited my AUD/USD short but I'm holding my NZD/USD short and will place a tight stop on the next pull-back just in case this is a fake-out, but I won't switch to a long position until there's a retest of 0.822 from above, and similarly for AUD/USD I'll wait for a break of 1.04 then a retest of 1.039(ish) before I go long.

Don't worry about the news unless its a game changer. Just look at the chart, there's an hourly pin bar reversal. If it doesn't make a double top @ 1038 or 1040 its just gonna keep going up.

We broke the intraday 4 week downtrend 2 days ago, since the aussie trends nicely I'd expect this to go 150 pips too if not more.

Almost made up for my loss earlier this week with my AUD shorts.

Remember folks, the trend is your friend. I use the MACD on the D1 and scale in new positions using Williams % on the H1. This should be a nice bull run with AUD/JPY!

Thinking 88.00 could be a realistic target within the next month or two...

I have been trying to become more familiar with PA and technical analysis. Today especially I have been looking at the daily on specifically AUD/JPY, looks very strong....I wasn't thinking as far up as 88 though. I currently have a long position from around 81.00. do you think its a good time to load up on another buy in your opinion? I was thinking I should....

AUD/JPY is pretty consistently rejected when daily RSI hits 65, which is where it's at now, so I think it's more likely to stay in this nice, profitable channel and bounce off of 83 at most.

hahahahaha, fuck this shit....

y'all gotta believe this shit....
even y'all use trusted indicator like y'all said before, trust me, the only things work are R/S and MA....

yeah, y'all also are able to figure out the pattern...

that sll the shit you gotta use......

trust me due

Looks we might get a pull back lower after all, double top @ 1.04. Now I can set my limit order for tomorrow.

Es WAS rejected today setting a lower low so far. No confirmation yet as i mentioned last night once we crossed 1.04 Its time!!! lol

buy 1.0375 sl 1.0365

The main reason why I project a target rate of roughly 88.00 for AUD/JPY is because of USD/JPY. Take a look at the wekly chart...

We have a definitive break of the Daily down trend that has been in affect since April 15th - October 15th. The Oct. 15th Daily candle confirms this.

Next we have the Weekly Down Trend which has been in affect since April 5th, 2009. If USD/JPY breaks the weekly down trend then I don't see anything holding U/J back. Couple the technicals with the fundamentals and I see the JPY weakening from a macro point of view. I know this is the AUD thread but I'm going to share an article below in regards to the Japanese Yen as it could relate to AUD/JPY.


Japan: An Accident Waiting to Happen

The world's largest debt bomb isn’t Greece or Spain. It’s Japan, where government debt now approaches 220% of gross domestic product.

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/2012/09/SI-G.png

That level of spending makes profligate congressmen in America look downright parsimonious with taxpayer cash. Servicing Japan’s debt now consumes some 43% of government revenue, up from about 4% in the early 1970s.

It’s a situation that’s clearly not sustainable.

In theory, that much debt – and all the money the Bank of Japan keeps printing to keep the country afloat – should have destroyed the yen by now. Yet, it hasn’t.

And the reason it hasn’t comes down to the country’s savings pattern.

Japan is able to run huge deficits and sustain such high debt-to-GDP because it has used its vast savings over the last 50 years to fund government spending. I recently talked to my colleague, Evaldo Albuquerque, to get his thoughts. Evaldo is one of the smartest analysts I know. He made a name for himself in foreign currencies, but we’re teaming up to find unique, safe income plays. Here’s his take:

“The yen hasn’t collapsed yet because Japanese financial institutions hold 93% of government debt. In other words, domestic investors have financed the government’s spending for the past two decades. The problem is Japan has the world’s fastest-growing population of seniors aged 65 years and older.

“Once all these seniors retire, they will no longer be saving. Instead, they will be cashing out their retirement accounts. The Japanese government will have to find other investors to buy their bonds. Who will buy Japanese bonds paying less than 1%? International investors will certainly require a higher rate, increasing interest expenses. The government simply can’t afford that.”

In other words, the country’s savings rate will soon go negative. And that’s going to be the tipping point for the currency.

For years now, Japan has been printing money and buying government debt to keep interest rates from skyrocketing. But once the savings rate turns negative, Japan’s government will no longer have domestic cash to rely on. So, they’ll do what every government does when faced with making impossibly hard decisions … they’ll turn on the printing presses and crank out boatloads of yen.

And the yen will finally crack.

If it’s a managed devaluation of the yen, as I expect, Japan’s export-dependent companies will be big, big beneficiaries. That’s because the sales that Japanese companies accumulate in dollars, euros, pounds and yuan will translate into more and more yen as the Japanese currency weakens. That’s essentially free profits because, aside from some tax obligations, currency gains have no associated costs on a corporate income statement.


**It is also important to note that AUD/JPY hit 88.61 earlier this year and this area could act as resistance. Obviously this is a speculative view but I have been following the situation in Japan this entire year and I know the Yen will lose value, it is only a matter of time...

This is a Macro view and I am not acting as a signal service, this is just my perspective.

buy 75 sl 70 tester trades