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AUD/USD

  • #54,161
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:30pm Oct 17, 2012 2:30pm
Quoting aleneznm
I think good sell area will be form 1.0420 to 1.0440
AUD/USD


Any one agree on that >>
Aleneznm,

you may want to wait for chinese GDP to come out in 5 hours first since AUD is chinaa's number one trade partner. If GDP is good, AUD will continue to go up, if not well then it will only down.

Check out this piece of information from forex crunch.

 

  1. Within expectations: 7.0%to 7.8%: In such a case, AUD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 7.9% to 8.3%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 8.3%: Given the current trend, the likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome would push the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 6.5% to 6.9%: A sharper decrease than forecast could push AUD/USD downwards and break one level of support.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 6.5%: A very poor reading would likely hurt the Australian dollar. This outcome could push the pair below a second support level

You could read the article here also http://www.forexcrunch.com/audusd-tr...chinese-gdp-2/
I actually wanted to long again, due to what I have been reading as a positive GDP reading coming out today, but I am not sure, anyone know whats the best way to trade the GDP news coming out?

  • #54,162
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:30pm Oct 17, 2012 2:30pm
Quoting aleneznm
I think good sell area will be form 1.0420 to 1.0440
AUD/USD


Any one agree on that >>
maybe retrace.. i would wait for lower low.. 420 is bull target not bear entry. But sometimes bull targets become bear entries..
  • #54,163
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:32pm Oct 17, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting jplazard
This is the Bull turning point yaaaa!!! oh wait where are we trading compared to the last cut hmm...

Are we still trading below the 50% 618% retrace from the Hi/Low of this recent wave hmmmm....

And on an ABC basis starting from August are we still trading below 50% hmmm..

here are the levels I am watching and do have shorts sitting throughout. China could give us a pop but it could be short lived.
Thank you jplazard, exactly the analysis im looking for... i just didnt know where i should be loading up shorts.... but 1.0400 and 1.0500 will be my last areas to load shorts... i skipped 1.03 because that thing rocketed up so no point adding there...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,164
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:33pm Oct 17, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting jezek5
Closed at 70 ,15 pips short of target.
I know,i'm a chicken.
Chick, chick chicken (McFly). I closed at 85, my PT.
Atleast we had the same target in mind.
  • #54,165
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:38pm Oct 17, 2012 2:38pm
Planning my shorts now all dependent on the chinese. Im anticipated poor GDP,

Anything between 50-61.8% retrace. Going into sniper mode to find good price.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #54,166
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:38pm Oct 17, 2012 2:38pm
Quoting bguguen
Thank you jplazard, exactly the analysis im looking for... i just didnt know where i should be loading up shorts.... but 1.0400 and 1.0500 will be my last areas to load shorts... i skipped 1.03 because that thing rocketed up so no point adding there...
regardless of GDP data coming out later today?
  • #54,167
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:39pm Oct 17, 2012 2:39pm
Quoting 4rextrader
Aleneznm,

you may want to wait for chinese GDP to come out in 5 hours first since AUD is chinaa's number one trade partner. If GDP is good, AUD will continue to go up, if not well then it will only down.

Check out this piece of information from forex crunch.
[list=1][*]Within expectations: 7.0%to 7.8%: In such a case, AUD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.[*]Above expectations: 7.9% to 8.3%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.[*][b]Well...

Hey Brother How those AJ longs treating you now ?
  • #54,168
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:43pm Oct 17, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Hey Brother How those AJ longs treating you now ?
They good man haha, but I'm just contemplating on how I am gonna play the upcoming chinese news . what do you think? Can't decide whether its a good time to short or not. Kind of lost lol
  • #54,169
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:43pm Oct 17, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting 4rextrader
regardless of GDP data coming out later today?
Im expecting positive GDP... they are easing now too and the Yuan is strengthening which is weird. If its not positive then weakness may come in but I'm still not adding short in that case either.
  • #54,170
  • Oct 17, 2012 2:48pm Oct 17, 2012 2:48pm
Quoting 4rextrader
They good man haha, but I'm just contemplating on how I am gonna play the upcoming chinese news . what do you think? Can't decide whether its a good time to short or not. Kind of lost lol

Honestly this pair is on its way up and out most likely.... 83.50/84.00 minimum and with a confluence of events we can see 90 again if the BOJ devalues like I believe they will


watch the 82.19... thats a big one... and to the bottom side watch the 81.52
  • #54,171
  • Oct 17, 2012 3:13pm Oct 17, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Honestly this pair is on its way up and out most likely.... 83.50/84.00 minimum and with a confluence of events we can see 90 again if the BOJ devalues like I believe they will


watch the 82.19... thats a big one... and to the bottom side watch the 81.52

thanks to all
  • #54,172
  • Oct 17, 2012 3:16pm Oct 17, 2012 3:16pm
Quoting 4rextrader
regardless of GDP data coming out later today?
of course REGARDING the GDP data... if gdp data comes bad then short at 1.04 is enough....

otherwise if its any good we shall see 1.05... cuz right now 1.04 is the last line of defense against the bulls before we make a full pullback up to the downwards trendlind we fell from...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,173
  • Oct 17, 2012 4:00pm Oct 17, 2012 4:00pm
Views on Dollar. Have been short since 80.12 near the toppy range area but if we should break down and take out the next retracement 78.81 and move below this could set in motion a MAJOR move in dollar setting up a HS on macro side. I will add to short and most likely be stopped out of AUD short if we should break lower
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  • #54,174
  • Oct 17, 2012 4:54pm Oct 17, 2012 4:54pm
Pre China numbers whichever way they come out we could come down prior before the release to 1.0348
  • #54,175
  • Oct 17, 2012 5:07pm Oct 17, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting jplazard
Views on Dollar. Have been short since 80.12 near the toppy range area but if we should break down and take out the next retracement 78.81 and move below this could set in motion a MAJOR move in dollar setting up a HS on macro side. I will add to short and most likely be stopped out of AUD short if we should break lower
That looks like a good area to get long JP and would make sense with what we talked about on AU.
  • #54,176
  • Oct 17, 2012 5:38pm Oct 17, 2012 5:38pm
Provided we break 1.0435-40 area and close on Weekly/Daily the Shorts and bears have lost and the fight does not come into play until the 1.06 area again.

China GDP is worse off in my opinion and tonight certain areas will highlight what has been the key bear arguments like Electricity use, stockpiles/Inventory and Shipping rates are still low which started in india and has since spread to China.

This daily bar was big and a breakout so I fully expect it to take time before a reversal or it will break through the 1.04-1.0440 barrier and the bears are SOL
  • #54,177
  • Oct 17, 2012 6:47pm Oct 17, 2012 6:47pm
from twitter

http://charts.stocktwits.com/product...jpg?1350517283
  • #54,178
  • Oct 17, 2012 8:03pm Oct 17, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
This is exactly what I'm thinking...

Look at the USD/JPY weekly chart, already formed a nice round bottom. Couple that with the fundamentals and we could see a major reversal with JPY cross pairs!

I will look to long AUD/JPY for the time being and will add different cross pairs as we go.

This entire year the JPY should have been weakening, but I think they were waiting for the Eurozone crisis to "blow over" before setting up the bullrun on JPY cross pairs. In my opinion, it is starting now.
Must be smiling now from all Yen pairs.
  • #54,179
  • Oct 17, 2012 8:05pm Oct 17, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting HelloOz
from twitter

http://charts.stocktwits.com/product...jpg?1350517283
interesting!
  • #54,180
  • Oct 17, 2012 8:06pm Oct 17, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting Ken A
Must be smiling now from all Yen pairs.
Yea I had uj closing above 90 EOY.. long ways to go still
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