Euro/Dollar

Nice play mate.

Stop on the last 1/3rd moved just below yesterday's low

In a zone where we are stretched and vulnerable to a pull back...

Drawn in are the three measured targets for wave 3 of the smallest degree I trade (SubMicro) labeled in red.... as you can see we reached the middle target on this degree, which is also exactly the lowest target of wave 3 of one degree higher (Micro).... and the channel top of that degree labeled in Green.

Green degree's next higher targets are 3155 and 3163 off the chart....

It will take more than today to get there should we at all.... we are long in the tooth for today as the chart clearly shows....

Stop moved up to 2980 locking in 80 pips on the last 3rd...

Just closed 1/2 of what I have left @3095 +195 pips.... scope remains to 3150/60, but taking the bird in hand on some from the nice pop in thin conditions.

Stop on rest moved to 3011

We have met and exceeded all wave iii targets for the smallest degree (SubMicro) labeled in red, and now I would expect wave iv of that degree to form as we consolidate recent gains, before one more push higher to challenge 3173.

The next higher degree in Green, (Micro) has already met its minimum target for wave III, and could already be in. but two targets still remain higher.

The higher we go, the more vulnerable we are. We were in one of the best of all possible worlds for a trader.... inside a wave three in two consecutive degrees..... that is now past, but we may remain inside wave three of the Micro degree, labeled in Green, and we are also inside wave three of a couple degrees above... a much longer term, position traders scale.

Lots of reasons to remain bullish. Lots of reasons to be booking some profit and leaving a little on the table for market to take out with a stop loss should the move already be complete.

Targets are derived from common Fibonacci wave relationships, and are not cast in stone... they are guidelines.

`Closed the rest of the trade at 3100 on the way back down from 3122 peak... + 200 Pips..

High danger area for a retrace as wave 4 likely will form in two degrees....

We still haven't hit the top two targets of the larger degree in green on the chart posted earlier.

In addition, wave 3's can be extended.... we don't have to put in a wave 4 in the smaller degree before moving higher....

But we have completed many of the targets derived from fib relationships, so with the move largely complete, I closed the trade....

Not time to think about shorting yet though....

With price having made 3125 since the last chart was posted, the potential target for wave 4 needs to be raised.....

Wave 4 should be limited to 3047 at this point in time. That would be the 38.2% retrace of wave 3, a common fib/wave 4 relationship. It could be shallower.. .236 is another common relationship.

3047 fits in with other chart milestones.... weekly R1 is 3048, and its resistance on the way up has caused prior price action to draw support in that area.

Eye Candy for Bulls...

Lowest Spanish Ten Year Yield in 6 Months....

I want a pull back before taking on new exposure... Buy orders layered back from 3060....

Orders cancelled... looking like the low this morning was a shallow Wave iv and we have now probably put in wave v and wave III.....

Scope to go higher (3150 most likely caps) but I expect the rally to very soon catch a pullback to put in the wave IV with a target 3040/50... to be refined once we make the turn at the top.

Minimal requirements for the end of wave v and wave III have been met already ( see chart below), and we have tapped the top of the Micro degree's channel again at 3128.

A wave 4 is a terrible wave to try to play a short into, so I will stand aside for now....

Still looking to buy a dip into 3065/45 zone with buy limit orders layered in that zone....

.

Deeper pull back possible with broader markets showing weakness ...


Standing aside for now...

Google reopens for trade at 3:20PM EST... two more minutes.... must wait to see market reaction.....

Large option expirey for Friday at 3050 should be supportive.... but if it should go...... 3000/15 in the cards...

Just too unpredictable given what is happening in other markets to bet on 3045/50 holding....

I am long EURUSD @ 3065, with more orders layered in lower back to 3055 against 3035....

Price held up well in the sharp the sell off over the Google Debacle, and I like the terminus of a wave to be but in in a fast money move with the market under pressure.

I would prefer lower... closer to the 38.2% Fib, hence the lower orders, but most traders seem to have their buy orders even lower this morning... so being cautious with stop at 3035, as wave 4 fib relationship to 38.2 is only reason to go long here.... 3020 and 3000 a better buy, but betting the common fib relationship holds.

Post Google low of 3054 fails to hold.... 100 HMA at 3050 and weekly R1 just below ....

If they go, we enter a nice support zone from prior price action...

Cutting my 3065 entries and sticking with the 3055 now that we are at 3070.... large option strike at 3050 may serve as a magnet..... will reenter that part of the order at 3050

Filled but fighting risk off mood in equities --- nice zone of support down to 3020 from prior price action and broken falling trend line from 2011 near 3025 puts somewhat of a floor to stand on here....

Lowering stop now that basis for the trade is 3052....