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AUD/USD

  • #54,001
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:30pm Oct 15, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
What I'm curious about is how does a market "price in" a Rate Cut by buying the currency? As we all know AUD has been going up for the past 8 trading days meaning a "priced in" rate cut is good for the currency?

Something doesn't smell right...

Normally when markets are "pricing in" a Rate Cut for a particular currency there is a sell off of that currency.
Hi 100PipsADay, might make more sense if you follow Balmain Boy's link and check the page out. Eg pricing in is based on futures price and history shows that rate cut in November was already priced in 8 days ago, thus has not been causing the spot price to rise, other things have been influencing that.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #54,002
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:33pm Oct 15, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
There was never going to be a rate cut today .
However , market expectations of a cut at the next meeting in November have now been lowered .
Market now pricing in a 78 % chance , down from 85% prior to the release of 'the minutes' .
Curious how you know a live % (or % after minutes)? My understanding of the link you provided is that it's only updated at the end of each (Australian) day.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #54,003
  • Oct 15, 2012 10:52pm Oct 15, 2012 10:52pm
Quoting dab
Curious how you know a live % (or % after minutes)? My understanding of the link you provided is that it's only updated at the end of each (Australian) day.

Hi Dab,

You can see the % in the Interbank rate futures that are traded on Sycom for Oct /Nov etc

Because they are traded live you can see the expectation instantly.

Hope that helps.
  • #54,004
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:27pm Oct 15, 2012 11:27pm
E/a short looking good.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #54,005
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:29pm Oct 15, 2012 11:29pm
Looking for possible short if not broken from 1029 TP 22-20 demand zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #54,006
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:31pm Oct 15, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting dab
Curious how you know a live % (or % after minutes)? My understanding of the link you provided is that it's only updated at the end of each (Australian) day.
As Hyperion mentioned above , you can view it 'live' on SYCOM or any other Futures Trading Platform .
If you don't have access to 'live' data , the 1st link on ;http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm will take you to the Delayed 15 mins price feed . The 2nd link on the page will show you how to calculate that price into a percentage .

Here's a rough shortcut for you ( each day forward alters the calculation slightly ) ;

96.90 = 75%
96.905 = 78%
96.91 = 80%
96.915 = 83%
96.92 = 85%
  • #54,007
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:32pm Oct 15, 2012 11:32pm
he is acting as if he is the next george soros and knows everything about the hedge fund industry because he owns some hedge fund. now what crap is this. why would a hedge fund trader spend time on this forum. two reasons either his clients are asking back for their money or he is coming here for trade ideas to trade
  • #54,008
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:34pm Oct 15, 2012 11:34pm
Quoting Nachiket
he is acting as if he is the next george soros and knows everything about the hedge fund industry because he owns some hedge fund. now what crap is this. why would a hedge fund trader spend time on this forum. two reasons either his clients are asking back for their money or he is coming here for trade ideas to trade

damm. such a complicated name he has bguguen.
  • #54,009
  • Oct 15, 2012 11:47pm Oct 15, 2012 11:47pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
As Hyperion mentioned above , you can view it 'live' on SYCOM or any other Futures Trading Platform .
If you don't have access to 'live' data , the 1st link on ;http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm will take you to the Delayed 15 mins price feed . The 2nd link on the page will show you how to calculate that price into a percentage .

Here's a rough shortcut for you ( each day forward alters the calculation slightly ) ;

96.90 = 75%
96.905 = 78%
96.91 = 80%
96.915 = 83%
96.92 = 85%
Thanks for clarifications Hyperion & Balmain Boy!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #54,010
  • Oct 16, 2012 12:12am Oct 16, 2012 12:12am
Quoting Nachiket
he is acting as if he is the next george soros and knows everything about the hedge fund industry because he owns some hedge fund. now what crap is this. why would a hedge fund trader spend time on this forum. two reasons either his clients are asking back for their money or he is coming here for trade ideas to trade

Maybe he is sleeping??

nevermind I see him down below... he is just watching.. he is right though the 290 is a tough nut to crack....
  • #54,011
  • Oct 16, 2012 12:17am Oct 16, 2012 12:17am
Quoting Wulfgar
Maybe he is sleeping??

nevermind I see him down below... he is just watching.. he is right though the 290 is a tough nut to crack....
Just watching and laughing while i read.... besides i aint no george soros
But one thing im not is a back stabber...
i wonder what i've done to nachiket for him to hate directly on me when im not the only one shorting the AUDUSD if hes longing it...
anyways, another one to my ignore list....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,012
  • Oct 16, 2012 12:22am Oct 16, 2012 12:22am
Quoting bguguen
Just watching and laughing while i read.... besides i aint no george soros
But one thing im not is a back stabber...
i wonder what i've done to nachiket for him to hate directly on me when im not the only one shorting the AUDUSD if hes longing it...
anyways, another one to my ignore list....
i don't have anything against you but the way you treat fellow traders, i don't like that. show some respect for everyone here.
  • #54,013
  • Oct 16, 2012 12:28am Oct 16, 2012 12:28am
Quoting bguguen
Just watching and laughing while i read.... besides i aint no george soros
But one thing im not is a back stabber...
i wonder what i've done to nachiket for him to hate directly on me when im not the only one shorting the AUDUSD if hes longing it...
anyways, another one to my ignore list....

I am currently long aussie on various pairs too. I still consider it a counter trend trade however until our targets of 1.0290/1/0325 are broken and closed on the daily TF at least. Coupled with some FA to set me looking for larger moves long at which point Ill close my larger shorts.

Thats trading for ya... just gotta play price dynamics
  • #54,014
  • Edited 12:48am Oct 16, 2012 12:34am | Edited 12:48am
Quoting Nachiket
i don't have anything against you but the way you treat fellow traders, i don't like that. show some respect for everyone here.
Noted. Anything Else? because i hate to have anyone suspended just because they have something to fume against me when i am clearly trying to help.
what pisses me off even more.... is i get scold for dissing at traders who come in this forum and shout stuff like "LONG AUDUSD TP 1.10!!!!" without any analysis to back their suggestions, so seriously their Shout Doesnt help anyone at all! and i get the blame for disrespecting these clowns when their shouts are losing new traders who might think they are good signals into entering those trades and losing their hard earned money on these clowns....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,015
  • Oct 16, 2012 1:25am Oct 16, 2012 1:25am
So, anyone think we have reached the high of the day yet?
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #54,016
  • Oct 16, 2012 1:27am Oct 16, 2012 1:27am
Nope for me... Maybe around 290-330 at max or it will turn into bullish again...

Quoting Pair-me-up
So, anyone think we have reached the high of the day yet?
  • #54,017
  • Oct 16, 2012 1:27am Oct 16, 2012 1:27am
Quoting Pair-me-up
So, anyone think we have reached the high of the day yet?
need to watch H4 close to see
but my guess is that it looks like 1.0280/1.03 will put up a good fight...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #54,018
  • Oct 16, 2012 1:31am Oct 16, 2012 1:31am
The DAX and CAC index opened with a big up movement, but not it has come down slightly. But I imagine that the FTSE will open up with a big up movement as well, and drag the DAX and CAC up with a it a bit before it comes back down.

just my view.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #54,019
  • Oct 16, 2012 1:43am Oct 16, 2012 1:43am
Quoting Pair-me-up
The DAX and CAC index opened with a big up movement, but not it has come down slightly. But I imagine that the FTSE will open up with a big up movement as well, and drag the DAX and CAC up with a it a bit before it comes back down.

just my view.

FTSE's currently due to open up around 30 pts .
  • #54,020
  • Oct 16, 2012 1:44am Oct 16, 2012 1:44am
Quoting bguguen
need to watch H4 close to see
but my guess is that it looks like 1.0280/1.03 will put up a good fight...
it should as retailers are going long. That or this is a fundi move thus we wont see these prices for a while either way
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