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AUD/USD

  • #53,901
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:15pm Oct 14, 2012 6:15pm
news article from smh,

IT'S not at all clear that falling commodity prices - or the Reserve Bank's latest cut in the official interest rate - will lead to a lower Aussie dollar. But if it doesn't fall, and the economy doesn't look like it will stay growing at its trend rate, the Reserve will just keep cutting rates.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/reser...#ixzz29K21Ak6P

  • #53,902
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:27pm Oct 14, 2012 6:27pm
Quoting HelloOz
news article from smh,

IT'S not at all clear that falling commodity prices - or the Reserve Bank's latest cut in the official interest rate - will lead to a lower Aussie dollar. But if it doesn't fall, and the economy doesn't look like it will stay growing at its trend rate, the Reserve will just keep cutting rates.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/reser...#ixzz29K21Ak6P

Now i wonder why they are looking to lower interest rates again.....
OH I KNOW.... i remember saying this on friday....

IF CHINESE data comes out where EXPORT > Import.... and that it did.... Australia is in Trouble...

We all know this data to be good news to China but how good news does this good news from china affect Australia?
we all know their Trade Balance was gona Grow due to the easing.... but how helpful is it to Australia?
Put it this way.... China Trade balance Grew, where Export Grown much faster than imports.... Thats a bad sign for Australia, cuz i did say when Trade Balance comes in as a positive number... China is exporting more rather than Importing from Australia....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,903
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:32pm Oct 14, 2012 6:32pm
Quoting bguguen
Now i wonder why they are looking to lower interest rates again.....
OH I KNOW.... i remember saying this on friday....

IF CHINESE data comes out where EXPORT > Import.... and that it did.... Australia is in Trouble...

We all know this data to be good news to China but how good news does this good news from china affect Australia?
we all know their Trade Balance was gona Grow due to the easing.... but how helpful is it to Australia?
Put it this way.... China Trade balance Grew, where Export Grown much faster than imports.... Thats a bad sign...
HFT's use a ton of correlated quant data and since typically a strong chinese economy will import Australian commodities they are somewhat linked... but obviously you were proven correct so the move was faded... congrats bro... ur trades are lookin solid
  • #53,904
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:39pm Oct 14, 2012 6:39pm
Quoting Wulfgar
HFT's use a ton of correlated quant data and since typically a strong chinese economy will import Australian commodities they are somewhat linked... but obviously you were proven correct so the move was faded... congrats bro... ur trades are lookin solid
You are right.... but Chinese Easing is no sign of a strong chinese economy.... the chinese economy is anticipating a possible risk that they would miss growth targets.....
I would agree with you that increased Exports would be good news, but not necessarily for australia....
because think of trade balance this way.... Trade balance is a Zero Sum game.... it balances off.... but if theres a surplus from exports and that this export is not met by the same amount of exports... this leads to the Chinese economy growth in their importer's demise....

The fact that both Export and Import expanded is due to the fact of china's easing... but Export GREW more than their imports did.... and we dont even know if that 2.6% growth in China's import was majorly coming FROM australia.... i mean.... think about this... China doesnt only import from australia.... so if their import grew by 2.6%, there could be a possibility it had NOTHING to do with Australia....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,905
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:45pm Oct 14, 2012 6:45pm
Quoting bguguen
Now i wonder why they are looking to lower interest rates again.....
OH I KNOW.... i remember saying this on friday....

IF CHINESE data comes out where EXPORT > Import.... and that it did.... Australia is in Trouble...

We all know this data to be good news to China but how good news does this good news from china affect Australia?
we all know their Trade Balance was gona Grow due to the easing.... but how helpful is it to Australia?
Put it this way.... China Trade balance Grew, where Export Grown much faster than imports.... Thats a...
Ok. But this is not Australia-China trade balance, but whole China trade balance. Australia is main source of commidities for China. And Australia was never important destination of chinesse export. Chinesse data were absouletly positive for AUD. We do not see reaction czy CPI. That's all. What is signifucant US that we have iron ore chinesse import at 20 month high. And the end of era if sell off from commodities reserves. After very bad couple of weeks for AUD (bad data) we have 1.0250. Selling AUD it's not the best idea. No firesale before elections. Be sure.
  • #53,906
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:49pm Oct 14, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting moaf
Ok. But this is not Australia-China trade balance, but whole China trade balance. Australia is main source of commidities for China. And Australia was never important destination of chinesse export. Chinesse data were absouletly positive for AUD. We do not see reaction czy CPI. That's all. What is signifucant US that we have iron ore chinesse import at 20 month high. And the end of era if sell off from commodities reserves. After very bad couple of weeks for AUD (bad data) we have 1.0250. Selling AUD it's not the best idea. No firesale before elections....
we shall see buddy, 0.98 is not exactly a firesale on the AUDUSD.... and perhaps you seem to know more than i do about the situation in CHina, given i work both in Hong Kong and United Kingdom.... and i can tell you.... China Easing, is a bad bad news for Australia, otherwise Australia wouldnt be lowering interest rates to get Demand for their Exports back up..... the fact is even teh Australian know that the Australian Dollar at this exchange rate is overpriced given the market circumstance.... we also see FDI being diverted OUT of the australian economy which lead to shutdown of mining projects in australia....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,907
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:58pm Oct 14, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting bguguen
we shall see buddy, 0.98 is not exactly a firesale on the AUDUSD.... and perhaps you seem to know more than i do about the situation in CHina, given i work both in Hong Kong and United Kingdom.... and i can tell you.... China Easing, is a bad bad news for Australia, otherwise Australia wouldnt be lowering interest rates to get Demand for their Exports back up..... the fact is even teh Australian know that the Australian Dollar at this exchange rate is overpriced given the market circumstance.... we also see FDI being diverted OUT of the australian...
I do not think, that cutting rates is game of demand of export.
I am not sure about FDI, maybe you have better data.
I am sure that China easing will blow up commidities to the fucking floor.
I was talking about firesale on S&P, you want see aussie breaking parity without it. As you said, we will see. My swaps are working for me. I have time. Good luck !!!
  • #53,908
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:00pm Oct 14, 2012 7:00pm
Hey i love chinese food and i frequent Outback steakhouse... So if you want an export on either economy the Buck stops right here!
  • #53,909
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:09pm Oct 14, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting moaf
I do not think, that cutting rates is game of demand of export.
I am not sure about FDI, maybe you have better data.
I am sure that China easing will blow up commidities to the fucking floor.
I was talking about firesale on S&P, you want see aussie breaking parity without it. As you said, we will see. My swaps are working for me. I have time. Good luck !!!
Cutting rates is not a big game on the Exports... but rather Lowering Interest rates is hoping for Growth to pick up through the increased Consumer Consumpton and Domestic Investments as Money could be borrowed cheaply...
Australia is probably smart to lower interest rate but they need to be more aggressive to do so.... they cannot rely on china forever, instead they really need to pick up their own domestic growth when China is also diverting its economy away from Global Trade.
however articles like this coming out on friday would say Australia would not be a good sign for Australia as they would need to lower Interest rate EVEN MORE if they are to have any hopes of keeping their economy at growth...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...mortgages.html
But let me tell you the truth... Lower Interest rates would have Speculative money moving away from Australia, leading to a Short term Devaluaiton of the Aussie Dollar.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,910
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:20pm Oct 14, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting bguguen
This thing will test the low at 1.0200 before any bounce would happen.... and 1.0300 being the resistane....
the fact that the china data came in during the weekend though optimistic does not boost the AUSSIE much as there wasnt any liquidity for the news to be traded....
for me the optimistic news out of china got completely ignored out of the blue.....
All i know is that i am Short XAGUSD at 34, and things are breaking down to reach 32, this is a bearish news for AUD... but more likely a USDx Strength then anything....
watchout for huge dollar...
Oh shit.... 1.0200 on approach already.... this shit is looking scary considering its only monday... GBPUSD also dying... NZDUSD also dying.. XAGUSD also dying... MY GOD!!!
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,911
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:23pm Oct 14, 2012 7:23pm
covered my NZD position @ .8131... good start to the day
  • #53,912
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:25pm Oct 14, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting Wulfgar
covered my NZD position @ .8131... good start to the day
look at my trades again... they seriously stacking up the killing... lol
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,913
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:28pm Oct 14, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting bguguen
look at my trades again... they seriously stacking up the killing... lol
Is your Trade Explorer an exact reflection of your live account?

Just curious bro.
  • #53,914
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:32pm Oct 14, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Is your Trade Explorer an exact reflection of your live account?

Just curious bro.
Yes, and i have this account linked with Zulutrade as demo accounts are the best to use for trade execution.
however my live account's balance to trade with this strategy is small.... around 1/10th of the balance on my demo, so i trade in microlots there.... as i explained im still testing out my strategy phase....
i also make money through comissions i make through the linked zulutrade demo account, im not here to advertise so i wont talk anymore about my zulutrade.
all i can tell you is i have managed accounts to make profits out of the trades in my demo account.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,915
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:32pm Oct 14, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting bguguen
look at my trades again... they seriously stacking up the killing... lol
ur fuckin murdering it brother

Im closed and looking to buy some CTT moves... Kiwi needs the 51 to go anywhere.... protecting it tight... aussie needs the 21/24 to signal a short term reversal(as long as it stays over the 1.0200)

I snagged +250 pips on all those kiwi shorts
  • #53,916
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:39pm Oct 14, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting bguguen
look at my trades again... they seriously stacking up the killing... lol
you doing good then?
  • #53,917
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:39pm Oct 14, 2012 7:39pm
Quoting Wulfgar
ur fuckin murdering it brother

Im closed and looking to buy some CTT moves... Kiwi needs the 51 to go anywhere.... protecting it tight... aussie needs the 21/24 to signal a short term reversal(as long as it stays over the 1.0200)

I snagged +250 pips on all those kiwi shorts
THE AUDUSD has momentum to test 1.0180/1.0200 support with the H4, but the Daily chart has enough momentum to bust through that support.... that is the eerie thing....

As for Kiwi... we broken below 8140 Daily EMA55, now i need an h4 close below and a failed retest of 8140 as resistance for a confirmed break.....
on break confirmation, we shall see 8050 ont he daily without any difficulty....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,918
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:41pm Oct 14, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting fxjawn
you doing good then?
come on fb dude... i sent couple messages waiting for you to reply so we can start a convo
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,919
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:45pm Oct 14, 2012 7:45pm
Quoting bguguen
THE AUDUSD has momentum to test 1.0180/1.0200 support with the H4, but the Daily chart has enough momentum to bust through that support.... that is the eerie thing....

As for Kiwi... we broken below 8140 Daily EMA55, now i need an h4 close below and a failed retest of 8140 as resistance for a confirmed break.....
on break confirmation, we shall see 8050 ont he daily without any difficulty....
I carried my shorts over from last Friday, looking to get out at 1.0150, so it will probably hit 1.0151 and reverse. lol
Yay! Pips for everyone!
  • #53,920
  • Oct 14, 2012 7:47pm Oct 14, 2012 7:47pm
Quoting bguguen
come on fb dude... i sent couple messages waiting for you to reply so we can start a convo
ok i will sorry i did not hear the messages
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