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  • #53,881
  • Oct 14, 2012 4:07pm Oct 14, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting sidhujag
no i agree... just doesnt usually happen without making new lows or highs... smart money is in on it or else they fade
it. They been showing spikes that get faded..
for retailers to jump in and get margined
out.. They want retailers to start fading
so that they pay for the push up. I still see retailers
buying the pair.. cant remember but i think
snb waited until a large dip and retailers or dumb money started
shorting the cliff event... same way in 2008 looked like a parabolic rise was imminent...
Right. You are describing a capitulation event similar to the CHF when the EURCHF and USDCHF broke 1.05 and .8000 respectively and dropped seemingly out of control

In comparison we would need to see the UJ capitulate down to 65.00-70.00 in a reasonably short period of time. That will certainly need a catalyst. Major risk off or god forbid another major disaster similar to fukushima.
  • #53,882
  • Oct 14, 2012 4:11pm Oct 14, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Chinese Data came out positive. The wellington open should be interesting to see where the Aussie and Kiwi pairs move up too in early trading Monday.

Same areas in Play on the AU .. Eyes on the 09/12 to the downside... to the upside we have the 48/68/83 as stated before.

Expecting a bit of fireworks during the Asian/Australian session due to the Chinese data

Im continuing to buy dips on Aussie pairs as we continue to oscillate in this channel.

Large TF Buying opportunity on the AUDNZD on any dips below the 1.2500 on the monthly. Watch...
Not a huge move up on the wellington open. Would be prudent to wait till the CNY data out later unless you want to scalp these ranges... Im expecting a melt up towards the 68...
  • #53,883
  • Oct 14, 2012 4:13pm Oct 14, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Right. You are describing a capitulation event similar to the CHF when the EURCHF and USDCHF broke 1.05 and .8000 respectively and dropped seemingly out of control

In comparison we would need to see the UJ capitulate down to 65.00-70.00 in a reasonably short period of time. That will certainly need a catalyst. Major risk off or god forbid another major disaster similar to fukushima.
ya icalled that number out before. Looks like a target. Capitulation usually happens before trend changes. We havent had that on au either. Usd falls for all pairs to rise while uj falls?
  • #53,884
  • Oct 14, 2012 4:42pm Oct 14, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting sidhujag
ya icalled that number out before. Looks like a target. Capitulation usually happens before trend changes. We havent had that on au either. Usd falls for all pairs to rise while uj falls?
If you refer to the little paragraph I wrote up on Japans plight you will see why this is happening. Fact is the BOJ policy and blind cult-like belief in strong yen and deflation have slowed what would otherwise be a violent and FAST rise in yen strength. This is what makes the situation unique compared to the SNB is that the SNB did not implement such policies like asset purchasing and the like.

The yen and JGB yields are undergoing what looks like a "slow capitulation" which needs a catalyst to spur the lost faith in the yen and finally the BOJ will have no choice but to act.... Did you catch this little nugget?

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/...s-youre-s.html
  • #53,885
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:23pm Oct 14, 2012 5:23pm
Question for you all, do you all think that an intervention from the BOJ is inevitable or is their a chance they won't intervene, and if so why not?

Thanks!
  • #53,886
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:35pm Oct 14, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting Wulfgar
If you refer to the little paragraph I wrote up on Japans plight you will see why this is happening. Fact is the BOJ policy and blind cult-like belief in strong yen and deflation have slowed what would otherwise be a violent and FAST rise in yen strength. This is what makes the situation unique compared to the SNB is that the SNB did not implement such policies like asset purchasing and the like.

The yen and JGB yields are undergoing what looks like a "slow capitulation" which needs a catalyst to spur the lost faith in the yen and finally...
ya read that.. rest assured lol.. just need a catalyst
  • #53,887
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:36pm Oct 14, 2012 5:36pm
gap almost closed..

will it keep going down or bounce ?
  • #53,888
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:42pm Oct 14, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting HelloOz
gap almost closed..

will it keep going down or bounce ?
Take a look at NZD/USD H4 chart. If it breaks below .8145 with momentum AUD should follow closely behind.

I am still short AUD/USD and AUD/JPY since 2 weeks ago and feel confident about my decision, at least for the next few weeks.

Long EUR/AUD: 1.26462 SL: 160 TP: 320

Long EUR/NZD: 1.58643 SL: 160 TP: 320
  • #53,889
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:50pm Oct 14, 2012 5:50pm
BHP futures is -1%
Good luck traders, may this week be better than last week.
  • #53,890
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:55pm Oct 14, 2012 5:55pm
Quoting HelloOz
gap almost closed..

will it keep going down or bounce ?
This thing will test the low at 1.0200 before any bounce would happen.... and 1.0300 being the resistane....
the fact that the china data came in during the weekend though optimistic does not boost the AUSSIE much as there wasnt any liquidity for the news to be traded....
for me the optimistic news out of china got completely ignored out of the blue.....
All i know is that i am Short XAGUSD at 34, and things are breaking down to reach 32, this is a bearish news for AUD... but more likely a USDx Strength then anything....
watchout for huge dollar demand this week....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,891
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:56pm Oct 14, 2012 5:56pm
NZD .8145 has been support for 8 days in a row. Looks like we are going to break it within the next hour! Down we go...

I'm shorting NZD/USD once .8145 breaks
  • #53,892
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:56pm Oct 14, 2012 5:56pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Take a look at NZD/USD H4 chart. If it breaks below .8145 with momentum AUD should follow closely behind.

I am still short AUD/USD and AUD/JPY since 2 weeks ago and feel confident about my decision, at least for the next few weeks.

Long EUR/AUD: 1.26462 SL: 160 TP: 320

Long EUR/NZD: 1.58643 SL: 160 TP: 320

right there with you on the NU

http://clip2net.com/s/2oCps

lookin for the .8131/.8124 if the .8143 goes
  • #53,893
  • Oct 14, 2012 5:59pm Oct 14, 2012 5:59pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
NZD .8145 has been support for 8 days in a row. Looks like we are going to break it within the next hour! Down we go...

I'm shorting NZD/USD once .8145 breaks
just really look out for the .8124/.8131 brother...
  • #53,894
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:02pm Oct 14, 2012 6:02pm
Quoting Wulfgar
right there with you on the NU

http://clip2net.com/s/2oCps

lookin for the .8131/.8124 if the .8143 goes
Nice!
  • #53,895
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:03pm Oct 14, 2012 6:03pm
Quoting Wulfgar
just really look out for the .8124/.8131 brother...
Good lookin out bro. I'm actually shooting for a couple hundred pips on NZD during the next few weeks as well.

We'll see what happens...
  • #53,896
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:04pm Oct 14, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Good lookin out bro. I'm actually shooting for a couple hundred pips on NZD during the next few weeks as well.

We'll see what happens...
Rock and roll my friend

these next few weeks there should be lots of volatility so they will certainly be moving
  • #53,897
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:04pm Oct 14, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting Wulfgar
just really look out for the .8124/.8131 brother...
have a look at my trade explorer.... NZDUSD headed for my TP at 0.8050, Daily EMA 200 at 0.8042

On the daily... NZDUSD is bound to crack below 0.8140 EMA55, especially when RSI still has space to push downwards to reach 30....
onces 0.8140 clears... thatll head to my 200EMA Target easily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd daily.gif Size: 20 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,898
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:07pm Oct 14, 2012 6:07pm
Quoting bguguen
have a look at my trade explorer.... NZDUSD headed for my TP at 0.8050, Daily EMA 200 at 0.8042
dude! Nice!! hopefully the data due out tommorow will help break the support just below us... Im certainly more bearish on the Kiwi than the aussie... although bearish on all commodity currencies vs the USD right now..
  • #53,899
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:10pm Oct 14, 2012 6:10pm
Quoting Wulfgar
dude! Nice!! hopefully the data due out tommorow will help break the support just below us... Im certainly more bearish on the Kiwi than the aussie... although bearish on all commodity currencies vs the USD right now..
i really didnt see what the optimism about Chinese Trade data was about....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,900
  • Oct 14, 2012 6:14pm Oct 14, 2012 6:14pm
Quoting bguguen
i really didnt see what the optimism about Chinese Trade data was about....
Chinese data will always swing the aussie... same with the upcoming data... unless it crushes expectation to where it triggers moves beyond the TF's ur trading they are generally safe to fade back into the longer trend.

prolly easier for most just to ignore the news and trade the techs...
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