EUR/USD Forecast October 15-19 2012

EUR/USD Forecast October 15-19 2012

From forexcrunch.com

Euro/dollar slid within the range in a week that saw a deterioration in the global mood. The upcoming week features the highly anticipated EU Summit among other events. Will we see progress with Spain and Greece? Here is an outlook for the upcoming events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. Spain’s credit downgrade by S&P added to the nation’s troubles. The potential Spanish bailout request does not seem that close now. One of the factors that weighs on such a request is the statement by Merkel’s adviser that Germany is actually thinking about its banks when lending a hand to other countries. ... (full story)

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Oct 15, 2012 4:02am

I am looking to short the pair, but the Daily 200 SMA is providing strong resistance, so I would like to see PA pushing up to 1.32/34 with Daily divergence before beginning my attack

wolf7050

Oct 14, 2012 10:22pm — Edited

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Shut up and Trade

wolf7050

Oct 14, 2012 10:40pm

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Quoting ShadowZ

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lol stop fighting and trade together

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Yeah!!....I m down with that!!!

Loadedgun

Oct 14, 2012 3:30pm

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"€/$ started with a challenge of the 1.3060 line (mentioned last week). But after it failed to break higher, the pair went from weakness to weakness and lost the next lines, 1.30, and 1.2960, that quickly turned into resistance. All in all, not a positive week."

I guess we all agree that market trends are not defined by straight lines. If that is correct I think what happened last week was that the Euro established a further buffer with the weekly low at 1.28250 further insulating 1.28032. I note you are bullish the Euro but you are predicating price moves basically on news, etc. Therefore I will not waste your time explaining how price moves except to say in terms of my understanding - it was a very positive week for a bullish Euro. Why? Because it made a relatively higher low - and whats the big deal in that when it is supposed to be making higher highs? Because price moves in a precise fashion and each time a key support is violated target amplitude is reduced. When price maintains or increases support buffer - target amplitude is enhanced. In an uptrend the biggest events that assure momentum are not always the highs made but in fact the extent to which fluctuations have respected key support levels and ditto for downtrends (logically since we agree the market will "oscillate" going up or down).

The point being that the market is underpinned by transaction flows not my news or technical pattern formations. So for instance if Spain announces it will apply for a bailout and sellers dominate buyers at that point (the sign of order flow is negative) price will fall rather than rise. Of course that will be explained after the fact by stuff like "market priced it in already and sold the news" - we who have ways of estimating transaction flow know different.

Just pointing this out (with all due respect) for others to consider - it was transaction wise (very) positive for the Euro last week because more rather than less money was put up (net) to back direction.

Mike Haran

Oct 14, 2012 3:44pm

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Usually I am opposite to Yohays sentiment, however I do agree that the EURUSD is moving upwards albeit in a restricted fashion, by this I mean that we are entering a possible limit for the EURUSD which could well come at the previous high 1.3170 area, my reasoning for this is the repetative nature of price movement and the cycles that keep repeating time and time again.

Unlike loadedgun, I think he is a clever bloke, I use past market movement to predict future movement, anyone that has studies physics will appreciate that to every action their is an equal and opposite reaction, the markets are the same, a study of history going back to 1900 will tell you why this time of the year is a period to be very careful, quite frankly the EURUSD could crash this month, I don't know whay, but two cycles I am watching are playing out. Gold has hit a 60 year cycle and we are now heading down, as gold and the dollar often head in opposite directions, this could mean the dollar is going to get stronger, secondly the EURUSD is repeating almost to the pip a move it repeated in the past, which did not go well for the EURUSD, it resulted in a 1000 pip move and ended well into the next year. However, this week I am bullish the EURUSD, but not for long.

All the best

Mike Haran

Loadedgun

Oct 14, 2012 4:08pm

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Quoting Mike Haran

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Unlike loadedgun, I think he is a clever bloke

Mike Haran

Ignored

Let us be very clear - there is nothing in my post to suggest that Yohay's intelligence is at issue. I wonder where that came from and hope you actually read what I wrote. I was simply suggesting that one other way to look at it is by looking at transaction flows and implication for the course of price - period. I also did so "with all due respect".

As for cycles - history and all that - don't know strikes me as more akin to astrology than physics. BTW - I know and can prove that market moves in a very precise and easily determined manner and am not given to platitudes such as "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction". Anyway my point is that you got it all wrong and should have written your views without reference to mine as I do not see any bearing. Cheers

hss

Oct 14, 2012 5:31pm

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Quoting Loadedgun

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"€/$ started with a challenge of the 1.3060 line (mentioned last week). But after it failed to break higher, the pair went from weakness to weakness and lost the next lines, 1.30, and 1.2960, that quickly turned into resistance. All in all, not a positive week."

I guess we all agree that market trends are not defined by straight lines. If that is correct I think what happened last week was that the Euro established a further buffer with the weekly low at 1.28250 further insulating 1.28032. I note you are bullish the Euro but you are predicating...

Ignored

Lg in summary what ur saying is there is still a bearish momentum for the euro

climber123

Oct 14, 2012 5:36pm

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Bleh. Don't care about opinions or commentary. Last week was bullish for the euro for lots of reasons that other explain well (comments above and FF in general).

I'm just a trader. EURUSD wants to go up, I'm willing to go long. When it changes, go short. Fight it, lose money. Pretty basic.

On a fundie basis, EUR and USD are both screwed between the repeatedly bungled handling of the debt crisis exacerbated by a half-baked euro. (It's really not the euro, it's the governing institutions of the Eurozone that are half-baked, but it expresses itself through the currency so who cares?) Here in the USA, there is no will to tackle a debt crisis. One side won't raise taxes when it's obvious that cutting can't cover it and the other side won't make cuts when it's obvious that new taxes can't cover it.

I do agree that we could be looking at a euro fall in the next month or so. The euro crisis appears to be getting even more volatile, the US Presidential election will happen, and Greece/Spain/US Fiscal Cliff are all waiting in the wings to send the market one way and the other. Perhaps the nearest term excitement will be Q3 earnings because a collapse in equities from these high levels would take little and would impact currency significantly.

Regardless, take the pips the market offers and say "thanks" as the spirit moves you.

Good trading to all.

Loadedgun

Oct 14, 2012 8:10pm — Edited

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Quoting hss

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Lg in summary what ur saying is there is still a bearish momentum for the euro

Ignored

Well what I am saying is that life is not so simple and the market is non linear so best to take it support and resistance at a time. Any support level that holds increases the chances of reaching unitary objective at the 1.4 handle and any key support broken reduces the chances of reaching that target amplitude. At this time (and so far) the Euro is building momentum to reach target amplitude since in fact the growth function of any variable across time is given by (a/b) -1 where in this case b is the penultimate low and a is the last low.

This is the same way we view business growth and not by whether or not we meet some set or expected interim target. And do not forget the real traders out there are thinking if I don't buy now I may lose out or even worse get into the market when the price is too expensive (not whether Spain will ask for a bailout). Positive growth in anything assures direction and the reverse applies - it's really that simple. All the talk about news and fundamentals, etc miss the point of how the market works - order flow at points of price equilibrium.

PS: In other words (given the established direction of the unit is bullish) the safest strategy is to buy dips (at key levels) until and unless the growth function calculated as above begins to give negative fractions. This thing is easy to trade once you know that the market functions precisely as any other market on earth.

Loadedgun

Oct 14, 2012 8:48pm — Edited

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What would it pay them - since the market will always show them to be right or wrong in a short space of time? It does not take many calls to know who is talking crap. We all know the business enough to know when to ignore nonsense.

BTW: Radical discoveries and thinking usually face considerable opposition at inception until it becomes a standing fact in the common understanding of people. For instance I use a 3rd order regression tool which is predictive (in a probabilistic way) so I do not have to follow the old rules - it enables a more intuitive model of the market compared to classic technicals (and certainly far more than crap fundamentals). I know we are in consolidation in D1 and I know that there is 95% chance that 1.2850 will hold implying a further cushioning of the basic support at 1.28032 - hell I know that the the chances of not taking out 1.30714 this week (or early next week) is less than 5% - so I would sound different, talk different and trade differently. I won't scalp because I see the market laid out right before my eyes - I see in real time where support and resistance is building and can plan and respond dynamically - I see these things well ahead of my peers - it is different. But to see them and to integrate a fractal structure into into the unitary form in which it operates and model it to the precision I have took new and very radical thinking. It is not the tool it is the understanding that is unique.

Mike Haran

Oct 15, 2012 3:20am

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I used the word unlike in reference to me loadedgun, we have different methods of analysis, and that is the point I was making reference to. I like Yohay and I like his blog and I certainly would not insult him. To enlarge my thoughts on reactions I am talking about amptitude of waves and the repetative nature of the size and duration of swings.

If you feel that I incorrectly made reference to you then please accept my apologies. I don't wish to ofend anyone on this forum.

Mike Haran

Quoting Loadedgun

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Let us be very clear - there is nothing in my post to suggest that Yohay's intelligence is at issue. I wonder where that came from and hope you actually read what I wrote. I was simply suggesting that one other way to look at it is by looking at transaction flows and implication for the course of price - period. I also did so "with all due respect".

As for cycles - history and all that - don't know strikes me as more akin to astrology than physics. BTW - I know and can prove that market moves in a very precise and easily determined manner and...

Ignored

Loadedgun

Oct 15, 2012 4:09am — Edited

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Quoting Mike Haran

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I don't wish to ofend anyone on this forum.

Mike Haran

Ignored

The same reason why I needed that point cleared up. I am not an arrogant person but I studied Gann and the rest and rejected their postulates accepting only Dow Theory and then went about defining a model of the market that would make more explicit what I thought he was saying. That led me to chaos theory and fractals (not the Bill Williams variant but the mathematical discipline from first principles). I use the concept of cycles and the approximate phase angles of price (using TMA's as my proxy for the sine wave structure of flows - so I can say when the phase angle is 90, 180, 270 degrees etc and define amplitude along those lines). However, when we go into dates and stuff we are in Gann and he did not leave detailed notes of his meaning and he used astrology a lot. That was my point. Anyway cheers no offence whatsoever so long as Yohay does not get the impression that I was being rude to him in any way.

Mike Haran

Oct 15, 2012 4:44am

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Thanks loadedgun I am glad we cleared that up I too went in the same direction as you, again chaos theory, fraqtal formation, looks like you have explored Hurst analysis too. I also took all Ganns trades and reverse engineered them, and made my own observations, Gann used astronomy, but as a friend said to me once why use a hourglass when you can use a quartz clock. But while waiting for trades I like to exercise my grey matter looking at what Gann might have discovered which goes a long way beyond just trading.

All the best

Mike Haran

jaygee

Oct 15, 2012 5:03am

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Quoting Robot Trader

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I am looking to short the pair, but the Daily 200 SMA is providing strong resistance, so I would like to see PA pushing up to 1.32/34 with Daily divergence before beginning my attack

Ignored

every move higher has made a lower high. should get the direction here soon. if that 200 dma fails, it is sell city for sure

Loadedgun

Oct 15, 2012 5:12am

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Quoting Mike Haran

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Thanks loadedgun I am glad we cleared that up I too went in the same direction as you, again chaos theory, fraqtal formation, looks like you have explored Hurst analysis too. I also took all Ganns trades and reverse engineered them, and made my own observations, Gann used astronomy, but as a friend said to me once why use a hourglass when you can use a quartz clock. But while waiting for trades I like to exercise my grey matter looking at what Gann might have discovered which goes a long way beyond just trading.

All the best

Mike Haran

Ignored

I feel better now and more comfortable with you as a trader - because I have this thing about avoiding traders into the more esoteric approaches in trading. I like the mathematical approach because it is automated and my study of fundamental fractal geometry has made things so clear as to allow me to use polynomial regression and the algebra of polynomials and their graphs to model the market precisely based on some theories I derived from what Dow Had to say. Like right now - (and I mean now) the Eur is set to fall anywhere from 500 - 1000 points. This anyone can verify against the time of my post. Because my tools are dynamic it is so difficult to fit into a world defined by classic technical statics (Fibs, trend lines and all that jazz) - but I will find a way to express despite that. Most people will call this indication a hidden divergence on the 1 hour but on a polynomial chart it shows as market limit with less than a 1% chance of price exceeding that limit - implying in this case a significant fall. Pretty easy. Cheers and hope we can be friends and exchange ideas - I see you are into similar stuff as me - math and physics. Takre

Loadedgun

Oct 15, 2012 5:22am

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Quoting jaygee

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sell eur/usd 2955

Ignored

I guess you saw this as a divergence (hidden) on your charts with some uncertainty - I can confirm that it is indeed a market limit - defined by a 3rd order polynomial equation. Simpler and attached with a definite margin of error. So we agree here.

BTW: There will be more of these over and undershoots as my model indicates we are in consolidation preparatory to rise above 1.31714 which you might dispute using classic principles because you might think we are set for a fall from the apparent divergence on the weekly - but equations are more precise and suggest for now that the overshoot is incomplete on that time frame so we will fall but may be not so soon.

javaprince

Oct 15, 2012 9:45am

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Nice and Interesting traders. I enjoyed reading the recent posts of this thread. I'm realy a new trader and Forex is realy what the insiders understand. I love the Mathematicians here as I normall wonder where all the irritating algebra and calclus we learnt in the High School. Pls I would be happy to meet with anybody here that can teach me how pure and even applied Mathematics can be applied in Forex for more interesting and pricise prediction.