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AUD/USD

  • #53,861
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:08am Oct 13, 2012 4:08am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.JPG Size: 56 KB


Just a home-made COT chart

As we can see, the net position says that the sentiment is bearish

I am still bearish on AUD, in my opinion it will break 1.015 next week
  • #53,862
  • Oct 13, 2012 4:54am Oct 13, 2012 4:54am
note that commercials gone positive first time in 4y+ in june and made money.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6A&p=w1
  • #53,863
  • Oct 13, 2012 5:16am Oct 13, 2012 5:16am
Quoting grandia
Attachment

Just a home-made COT chart

As we can see, the net position says that the sentiment is bearish

I am still bearish on AUD, in my opinion it will break 1.015 next week
I agree with you. It has just reaced the top of the longposiniotion some week ago that's a strong bearish signal and furthermore, as I said some post ago, I see a lot of bearish divergence on RSI for the AUD pairs (except aud/usd wich shows a bullish divergence )
  • #53,864
  • Oct 13, 2012 1:01pm Oct 13, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting sidhujag
already tried 80 it lasted one day
I think boj has commitment issues, they need to be bold and learn from the swiss
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,865
  • Oct 13, 2012 2:35pm Oct 13, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting bguguen
I think boj has commitment issues, they need to be bold and learn from the swiss
The BOJ is broke in comparison to the SNB. I don't think they could maintain a peg.

What they are doing is probably the smartest thing, "threaten" intervention so speculators don't try and take it down past a certain point. As can be seen on a chart it looks as though people are scared to take it down past the 78 level.
  • #53,866
  • Oct 13, 2012 3:40pm Oct 13, 2012 3:40pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
The BOJ is broke in comparison to the SNB. I don't think they could maintain a peg.

What they are doing is probably the smartest thing, "threaten" intervention so speculators don't try and take it down past a certain point. As can be seen on a chart it looks as though people are scared to take it down past the 78 level.
Broke?! nah dude the japs are rich as fuckin their reserves... last time i talked to my uncle about why japs arent doing intervention is the fear of deflation and their demographics.... when majority of their population are old, they have a huge population under government welfare, the last thing they would do is government value to lose its shine...
i think the japs are simply stuck....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,867
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:50am Oct 14, 2012 1:50am
Quoting bguguen
I think boj has commitment issues, they need to be bold and learn from the swiss
uj is alot more liquid than ec... boj cant fuck with usd peg thats what they signed up for 25 yrs ago. Like i said they tried to be bold but were never beautiful. They been at it longer than snb. Chf will weaken on its own as well as jpy because
sm will realize they are shit going fwd
compared to usd.

So lets see chf jpy aud gbp all fundamentally should weaken long term. Eur is garbage in the first place. So whats left?
  • #53,868
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:53am Oct 14, 2012 1:53am
Chinese Data came out positive. The wellington open should be interesting to see where the Aussie and Kiwi pairs move up too in early trading Monday.

Same areas in Play on the AU .. Eyes on the 09/12 to the downside... to the upside we have the 48/68/83 as stated before.

Expecting a bit of fireworks during the Asian/Australian session due to the Chinese data

Im continuing to buy dips on Aussie pairs as we continue to oscillate in this channel.

Large TF Buying opportunity on the AUDNZD on any dips below the 1.2500 on the monthly. Watch NZD data to correlate and the .8124/.8131 area to be TOUGH support to crack with a serious risk off sentiment and FA.


Good luck guys

Wulf
  • #53,869
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:54am Oct 14, 2012 1:54am
Quoting bguguen
Broke?! nah dude the japs are rich as fuckin their reserves... last time i talked to my uncle about why japs arent doing intervention is the fear of deflation and their demographics.... when majority of their population are old, they have a huge population under government welfare, the last thing they would do is government value to lose its shine...
i think the japs are simply stuck....
how would intervention raise fear of deflation.. thats
counter intuitive.

They are looking to set an inflation target mechanism like bb. They are under half pct or something and looking to take it
to 2%. A nice grind would be useful that woukd be equivalent to maybe 5k pip intervention lol but they wont do it like that.
  • #53,870
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:54am Oct 14, 2012 1:54am
Quoting sidhujag
uj is alot more liquid than ec... boj cant fuck with usd peg thats what they signed up for 25 yrs ago. Like i said they tried to be bold but were never beautiful. They been at it longer than snb. Chf will weaken on its own as well as jpy because
sm will realize they are shit going fwd
compared to usd.

So lets see chf jpy aud gbp all fundamentally should weaken long term. Eur is garbage in the first place. So whats left?

Starts with a G and ends in "old"
  • #53,871
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:57am Oct 14, 2012 1:57am
Quoting 100PipsADay
The BOJ is broke in comparison to the SNB. I don't think they could maintain a peg.

What they are doing is probably the smartest thing, "threaten" intervention so speculators don't try and take it down past a certain point. As can be seen on a chart it looks as though people are scared to take it down past the 78 level.
78 looks protected but still looks bearish. Interesting pa if it breaks. I see either 70ish fast and long term target 65 to 60 or buck stops there 77.5ish will be interesting if it does go
  • #53,872
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:58am Oct 14, 2012 1:58am
Quoting Wulfgar
Starts with a G and ends in "old"
yup that too but what happens to
gold when usd rises with equities. Who will gold bugs believe?
  • #53,873
  • Oct 14, 2012 2:36am Oct 14, 2012 2:36am
Quoting sidhujag
how would intervention raise fear of deflation.. thats
counter intuitive.

They are looking to set an inflation target mechanism like bb. They are under half pct or something and looking to take it
to 2%. A nice grind would be useful that woukd be equivalent to maybe 5k pip intervention lol but they wont do it like that.

Reflationary efforts such as intervention are a direct cause of deflation under certain situations. Remember deflation is the simple shift in the supply-demand curve. If supply is increased such as it is through reflationary efforts but the liquidity doesnt make it into the economy(ie it stays in the banks since they wont lend) then demand stays low because of high unemployment, bad credit market etc.

When supply outstrips demand deflation ensues. In actuality intervention is a VERY slippery slope because all the liquidity being given to banks and corporations that wont spill it out to the economy can actually act as a drag on an economy . Friedman actually said that inflationary efforts are only as successful as how much of the capital gets into the economy.

In the case of Japan for instance a strong yen has almost become sort of a cultural cult. The banks are completely nationalized and when the BOJ expands its asset purchasing facility further this liquidity is NOT absorbed into the economy. Instead the excess weakening is quickly reversed since corporations/buisnesses and households all believe in a strong yen and quickly repatriate other currencies as such.

They have dug themselves a tremendous ditch. Their GDP has contracted at a record pace as their deflationary spiral is spinning completely out of control in spite of all the interventions thus far. In fact they are speeding up the process. The Japanese have lost all competitiveness in areas they once dominated(electronics, automobiles, etc) due to this massive deflationary hole. It has only lasted so long due to the efforts of the BOJ setting policy to offset the strong yen by increasing government debt(which has recently surpassed 1,000 trl yen). Declining trade surplus, weak economy, overly strong currency and more reflationary efforts have built a bubble to end all bubbles in regards to yen strength and JGB yields. They will last only as long as market confidence lasts. This is quickly deteriorating.

Japan is just one example. Bernanke has run up much the same thing in the US through intervention. One only needs to look at the large channel formed on the SPX which is clearly topping out as the USDX is carving out a bottom. This is IN SPITE OF unending QE being announced.

Hope that gives some light into how interventions can actually be deflationary when used improperly.


Wulf
  • #53,874
  • Oct 14, 2012 2:38am Oct 14, 2012 2:38am
Quoting sidhujag
yup that too but what happens to
gold when usd rises with equities. Who will gold bugs believe?
Its almost a foregone conclusion gold will rise to $3000 at least...Where else can they really go?
  • #53,875
  • Oct 14, 2012 3:04am Oct 14, 2012 3:04am
Quoting sidhujag
uj is alot more liquid than ec... boj cant fuck with usd peg thats what they signed up for 25 yrs ago. Like i said they tried to be bold but were never beautiful. They been at it longer than snb. Chf will weaken on its own as well as jpy because
sm will realize they are shit going fwd
compared to usd.

So lets see chf jpy aud gbp all fundamentally should weaken long term. Eur is garbage in the first place. So whats left?
China, brazil, india, indonesia, russia is whats left
Though they are all suffering in world growth problem, so only thing i see strengthening is the USD on continually printed money as it seems demand for it almost never runs out....maybe because USD is world reserve currency....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,876
  • Oct 14, 2012 3:20am Oct 14, 2012 3:20am
Quoting sidhujag
how would intervention raise fear of deflation.. thats
counter intuitive.

They are looking to set an inflation target mechanism like bb. They are under half pct or something and looking to take it
to 2%. A nice grind would be useful that woukd be equivalent to maybe 5k pip intervention lol but they wont do it like that.
I know it sounds counter intuitive,but if i remember correctly, the reason why japs wont intervene is because government already in debt, deflationary risk is also there and jap population are not keen in saving money in japan due to insolvent banks, they buy up US treasury soooo strong yen means they can buy up more us treasury bonds..... Interesting....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Japan
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,877
  • Oct 14, 2012 3:22am Oct 14, 2012 3:22am
Quoting bguguen
I know it sounds counter intuitive,but if i remember correctly, the reason why japs wont intervene is because government already in debt, deflationary risk is also there and jap population are not keen in saving money in japan due to insolvent banks, they buy up US treasury soooo strong yen means they can buy up more us treasury bonds..... Interesting....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Japan
The end is getting near

We should see a '96 style devaluation very soon... possibly this year
  • #53,878
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:08pm Oct 14, 2012 1:08pm
Quoting Wulfgar
The end is getting near

We should see a '96 style devaluation very soon... possibly this year
yea i see that too but if we look at 2008 a top was set before the fall. So a bottom is not set yet? Alot of sls will be triggered down there like eurchf almost.
  • #53,879
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:36pm Oct 14, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting sidhujag
yea i see that too but if we look at 2008 a top was set before the fall. So a bottom is not set yet? Alot of sls will be triggered down there like eurchf almost.
I traded the day the UJ broke the 79.75 handle for the first time since it was set since the Kobe earthquake in the mid nineties. 300 pip move in under an hour.

Frankly I think the BOJ is on the precipice of a massive devaluation such as they did in 96'. Lowering their currency 30-40% would not be out of the question. It will be done in a massive move possibly taking only a few days much like the SNB did. They cannot broadcast the move or else it will absolutely crush the JGB market and the entirety of the japanese equity markets in anticipatory trading of such a move.

It is literally the ONLY play they have left out due to the aforementioned reasons and state of the Japanese trade surplus and diminished competitiveness.
  • #53,880
  • Oct 14, 2012 3:52pm Oct 14, 2012 3:52pm
Quoting Wulfgar
I traded the day the UJ broke the 79.75 handle for the first time since it was set since the Kobe earthquake in the mid nineties. 300 pip move in under an hour.

Frankly I think the BOJ is on the precipice of a massive devaluation such as they did in 96'. Lowering their currency 30-40% would not be out of the question. It will be done in a massive move possibly taking only a few days much like the SNB did. They cannot broadcast the move or else it will absolutely crush the JGB market and the entirety of the japanese equity markets in anticipatory...
no i agree... just doesnt usually happen without making new lows or highs... smart money is in on it or else they fade
it. They been showing spikes that get faded..
for retailers to jump in and get margined
out.. They want retailers to start fading
so that they pay for the push up. I still see retailers
buying the pair.. cant remember but i think
snb waited until a large dip and retailers or dumb money started
shorting the cliff event... same way in 2008 looked like a parabolic rise was imminent...
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