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  • #53,841
  • Oct 12, 2012 2:46pm Oct 12, 2012 2:46pm
What do you think about EUR/AUD?
I see a lot of bearish divergence for the AUD on its charts and E/A is around its ascent TL and yesterday did a bullish hammer..
  • #53,842
  • Oct 12, 2012 3:01pm Oct 12, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting mikijk3
What do you think about EUR/AUD?
I see a lot of bearish divergence for the AUD on its charts and E/A is around its ascent TL and yesterday did a bullish hammer..
so do i.

we will see.. im carrying a bit short
  • #53,843
  • Oct 12, 2012 3:11pm Oct 12, 2012 3:11pm
Quoting mikijk3
What do you think about EUR/AUD?
I see a lot of bearish divergence for the AUD on its charts and E/A is around its ascent TL and yesterday did a bullish hammer..
It broke the neckline nicely and is at a good level. Looking forward to next week to see if we get a reversal or a continuation. The thing I like about this pair is that I use a 15 pip stop. It makes decisive moves.I'm not a fibo trader, but it does respect the levels rather well. Good luck.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,844
  • Oct 12, 2012 3:15pm Oct 12, 2012 3:15pm
Heads up for next week S&P500 had the lowest close since 9/11 (Lo 1429.13) today's close was 1428.59. A retracement in the stock market 4-10% could be coming and this will not help AUD/USD bulls.

Something will have to come out to stop a retrace but given the Technical break it looks to be too late. ES could fall next week at a degree like the QE3 announcement.
  • #53,845
  • Oct 12, 2012 3:19pm Oct 12, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting Ken A
Indeed.

EU to receive Nobel Peace Prize boost E/A and A/U drops. Money is moving around lol.
So long as it moves eh, that's all we want
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,846
  • Oct 12, 2012 4:27pm Oct 12, 2012 4:27pm
Got a question for anyone who knows the answer, in the past when the bank of japan intervened, was this pair affected as much as yen pairs, for example aud/jpy?
  • #53,847
  • Oct 12, 2012 4:58pm Oct 12, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting 4rextrader
Got a question for anyone who knows the answer, in the past when the bank of japan intervened, was this pair affected as much as yen pairs, for example aud/jpy?
Yes, if you are currently short any jpy pair(ie buying yen)the Broad weakening of the yen will certainly adversely effect your trade....by quite a lot depending on the size of the intervention. Something all traders who trade jpy based pairs need to consider always.... The BOJ has their own agenda
  • #53,848
  • Oct 12, 2012 5:10pm Oct 12, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Yes, if you are currently short any jpy pair(ie buying yen)the Broad weakening of the yen will certainly adversely effect your trade....by quite a lot depending on the size of the intervention. Something all traders who trade jpy based pairs need to consider always.... The BOJ has their own agenda
they tried big interventions small ones hidden ones they all dont work. These imbalances get reverted just like bubbles aka 2008 crash. I truly blv market will need to reverse slowly without intervention. Real money has to come in a sell yen instead of the ppl printing it.
  • #53,849
  • Oct 12, 2012 5:17pm Oct 12, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting sidhujag
they tried big interventions small ones hidden ones they all dont work. These imbalances get reverted just like bubbles aka 2008 crash. I truly blv market will need to reverse slowly without intervention. Real money has to come in a sell yen instead of the ppl printing it.
This I totally agree with. From what I have read and looked on, on charts. These interventions aren't working. It would be better for everyone if they just stopped intervening.
  • #53,850
  • Oct 12, 2012 5:42pm Oct 12, 2012 5:42pm
They are certainly in a bind to say the least. 25 years of deflationary pressures brought upon by reflationary policy. The rest of the worlds CBs should take a lesson
  • #53,851
  • Oct 12, 2012 6:51pm Oct 12, 2012 6:51pm
Quoting Wulfgar
They are certainly in a bind to say the least. 25 years of deflationary pressures brought upon by reflationary policy. The rest of the worlds CBs should take a lesson
well that idea works in hindsight but in 86 when us came to the g5 and said hey ill pour in 20 billion a week to devalue usd if you peg your currency to mine...you would do that because at that point higher currency was valuable. Us had to compete with g5 because labour was too expensive so they tried making usd cheaper. It was a double whammy as us lost manufacturing and so did japan. up to then yen was very weak and was a problem as us couldnt compete. The experiment as always had unintended consequences. We love short term patches.
  • #53,852
  • Oct 12, 2012 9:54pm Oct 12, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting postino
Sigh, been a frustrating 2 months.

Everytime I Buy/Sell the reversals it comes back and hunt my SL then reverse 50-70 pips.

Risk 2-5%. Tried moving the SL to 25% couple of times and same thing happened.

only have 10% left before blowing my account.
Have been there. Most of the time I am not figthing against the markets but myself.

The only thing that works for me in so far until now is a sticky note on the screen 'This is real money on the line'. That always keep me out of trouble from over leveraged and greed that leads to fear then bad judgement if price moves against me. Without leverage I don't use SL per entry. The only consequencies from bad entry are the waiting time for PA to return, could be days, weeks even months and patience was tested. For this method to work there's no otherway but to put enough capital in, either all to broker's or have segregated accounts linked to your bank if you do not want to risk it with the broker.

You will find what is the best method you are comfortable with and to put to practice.

Cheers.
  • #53,853
  • Oct 12, 2012 10:12pm Oct 12, 2012 10:12pm
positive Chinese data so far
  • #53,854
  • Oct 12, 2012 10:23pm Oct 12, 2012 10:23pm
Quoting Acroix70
positive Chinese data so far
yea very good data both import and export shows growth should trigger risk on sentiment
Mohan
  • #53,855
  • Oct 12, 2012 11:41pm Oct 12, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting sidhujag
they tried big interventions small ones hidden ones they all dont work. These imbalances get reverted just like bubbles aka 2008 crash. I truly blv market will need to reverse slowly without intervention. Real money has to come in a sell yen instead of the ppl printing it.
Theres one intervention they be bold and give it a try, fixed currency, peg it to something perhaps
Wts ur view on this?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,856
  • Oct 12, 2012 11:43pm Oct 12, 2012 11:43pm
Up we go, into the wild blue yonder..........?
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #53,857
  • Oct 13, 2012 12:06am Oct 13, 2012 12:06am
Quoting postino
Sigh, been a frustrating 2 months.

Everytime I Buy/Sell the reversals it comes back and hunt my SL then reverse 50-70 pips.

Risk 2-5%. Tried moving the SL to 25% couple of times and same thing happened.

only have 10% left before blowing my account.
Good stuff written by JP & Ken. I'll throw in my 2c with a beer in hand... Get it right on demo first. Until you have, don't put real money on the line. 2 to 5% ???? Try 1% or .5%. %age wont make a bad system good, it'll just smooth out the equity curve, be it +ve or -ve. Forget about the money If you are serious that this is a longterm thing for you. I take shots of my entries and exits and write up why I entered the trade, how I was feeling, how the sentiment was (ie what people were saying on FFactory, the media etc.)The best trading book you will ever read is the one you have written yourself i.e your notes. Don't listen to the shouters. It's not a race my friend. Last week is over, focus on this next week.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,858
  • Oct 13, 2012 12:12am Oct 13, 2012 12:12am
Quoting bogus
Good stuff written by JP & Ken. I'll throw in my 2c with a beer in hand... Get it right on demo first. Until you have, don't put real money on the line. 2 to 5% ???? Try 1% or .5%. %age wont make a bad system good, it'll just smooth out the equity curve, be it +ve or -ve. Forget about the money If you are serious that this is a longterm thing for you. I take shots of my entries and exits and write up why I entered the trade, how I was feeling, how the sentiment was (ie what people were saying on FFactory, the media etc.)The best trading book you...
Well said
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,859
  • Oct 13, 2012 1:30am Oct 13, 2012 1:30am
Quoting bguguen
Theres one intervention they be bold and give it a try, fixed currency, peg it to something perhaps
Wts ur view on this?
already tried 80 it lasted one day
  • #53,860
  • Oct 13, 2012 1:43am Oct 13, 2012 1:43am
Quoting postino
Sigh, been a frustrating 2 months.

Everytime I Buy/Sell the reversals it comes back and hunt my SL then reverse 50-70 pips.

Risk 2-5%. Tried moving the SL to 25% couple of times and same thing happened.

only have 10% left before blowing my account.
Don't worry my friend, you're not alone... Every time I buy/sell the market always goes in my SL direction, my account is on -3% position right now. Last trade I got lucky, I bought Aussie with no SL at 185 (it dropped until 150) and closed it at 250... But it's very risky to trade without SL...
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