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  • #10,721
  • Oct 12, 2012 11:25am Oct 12, 2012 11:25am
Quoting tp0440
For this to even be plausible, 1,0650 should be broken first. There is certainly more resistance short term above.

Alternatives are likely, if not even more likely. But to even be able to talk about this, D1 and W1 need to be looked upon. Here a possible alternative scenario pointing toward .97 and bellow.

BR
1.0650 is going to be the peak. The UTL will cap the Aussie's up move at that level. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,722
  • Oct 12, 2012 11:26am Oct 12, 2012 11:26am
Today is a correction day. A 61.80% retracement could be in the cards.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,723
  • Oct 13, 2012 1:41am Oct 13, 2012 1:41am
Quoting DaddyBear
Today is a correction day. A 61.80% retracement could be in the cards.

Does that mean it will be gaping up or down on Monday Papa?
  • #10,724
  • Oct 13, 2012 9:05am Oct 13, 2012 9:05am
Quoting Daytrader74

Does that mean it will be gaping up or down on Monday Papa?

Based on the chart pattern, it will probably gap down. Also, there was a huge Doji at the market close. The after hour trading confirmed this possible scenario. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,725
  • Oct 13, 2012 9:07am Oct 13, 2012 9:07am
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on the chart pattern, it will probably gap down. Also, there was a huge Doji at the market close. The after hour trading confirmed this possible scenario. IMO
Also, the daily chart suggests that a swift downward correction may happen in the coming days.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,726
  • Oct 13, 2012 9:10am Oct 13, 2012 9:10am
After Venezuela's election, Mama has disappeared. Not sure what has happened to her. Was she in danger?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,727
  • Oct 13, 2012 9:37am Oct 13, 2012 9:37am
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on the chart pattern, it will probably gap down. Also, there was a huge Doji at the market close. The after hour trading confirmed this possible scenario. IMO
Another reason to look into this scenario is that the H4 LUTL has been broken by the market move on Friday.

The sharp surge at the close could be a throw-back to hit the LUTL. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,728
  • Oct 13, 2012 9:39am Oct 13, 2012 9:39am
Quoting DaddyBear
Another reason to look into this scenario is that the H4 LUTL has been broken by the market move on Friday.

The sharp surge at the close could be a throw-back to hit the LUTL. IMO
Where do u think next target on au will be? Price need to break 1.0165 to go lower
  • #10,729
  • Oct 13, 2012 9:45am Oct 13, 2012 9:45am
Quoting bonus76
Where do u think next target on au will be? Price need to break 1.0165 to go lower
There are two probabilities at this point.

The first one is continuing current downtrend to sub-parity. This will complete a 5-wave triangle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-101212-W1.JPG Size: 153 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,730
  • Oct 13, 2012 9:47am Oct 13, 2012 9:47am
Quoting DaddyBear
There are two probabilities at this point.

The first one is continuing current downtrend to sub-parity. This will complete a 5-wave triangle.
China trade balance data was positive. We might see some rally on monday
  • #10,731
  • Oct 13, 2012 9:51am Oct 13, 2012 9:51am
Quoting DaddyBear
There are two probabilities at this point.

The first one is continuing current downtrend to sub-parity. This will complete a 5-wave triangle.
The second one is a 3-wave correction. This would sent the Aussie to a new high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-101212-W2.JPG Size: 152 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,732
  • Oct 13, 2012 10:15am Oct 13, 2012 10:15am
Quoting bonus76
China trade balance data was positive. We might see some rally on monday
When was the news released?

There are other factors to consider besides the China data. Whether it is going to rally on Monday is still remained to be seen at this point.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,733
  • Oct 13, 2012 10:17am Oct 13, 2012 10:17am
Quoting DaddyBear
When was the news released?

There are other factors to consider besides the China data. Whether it is going to rally on Monday is still remained to be seen at this point.
14:03CNY
Trade Balance
27.7B20.4B26.7B today . Aud responds well on cny data
  • #10,734
  • Oct 13, 2012 10:22am Oct 13, 2012 10:22am
Quoting DaddyBear
The second one is a 3-wave correction. This would sent the Aussie to a new high.
Of these two probabilities, I'd say the second in more likely to happen. The basic reason is the pattern compositions.

The first one has a complicated wave B and a simple wave C. This does not meet the criteria of EWP IMO. Usually wave C is the most complicated one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-101212-W3.JPG Size: 150 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,735
  • Oct 13, 2012 10:28am Oct 13, 2012 10:28am
Quoting DaddyBear
The second one is a 3-wave correction. This would sent the Aussie to a new high.
Actually I should not say a new high. It may be lower than the high on 07/31/11. But, sometimes wave B is longer than wave A. So, it is still possible that the end of the wave C exceeds the previous high. IMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-101212-W4.JPG Size: 174 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,736
  • Oct 13, 2012 10:40am Oct 13, 2012 10:40am
Quoting DaddyBear
1.0650 is going to be the peak. The UTL will cap the Aussie's up move at that level. IMO
This post was not correct based on my earlier chart. I could mix up with other charts when posting above message.

tp0440 was right in his/her message.

Quoting tp0440
For this to even be plausible, 1,0650 should be broken first. There is certainly more resistance short term above.

BR
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,737
  • Oct 13, 2012 11:37am Oct 13, 2012 11:37am
Quoting bonus76
14:03 CNY
Trade Balance
27.7B 20.4B 26.7B today . Aud responds well on cny data
Where did you find that Aud responds well on cny data? I cannot find such a response.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,738
  • Oct 14, 2012 1:55am Oct 14, 2012 1:55am
Quoting DaddyBear
After Venezuela's election, Mama has disappeared. Not sure what has happened to her. Was she in danger?
I am here! Posted the day after, but have been trading other pairs. Somewhat depressed all the week as well because of the overall reactions.

Politics can bring out the worse sides of people, really not worth it.

Hope this week markets will bring more action, really wasn't much focused myself.
  • #10,739
  • Oct 14, 2012 10:48am Oct 14, 2012 10:48am
Quoting doblece
I am here! Posted the day after, but have been trading other pairs. Somewhat depressed all the week as well because of the overall reactions.

Politics can bring out the worse sides of people, really not worth it.

Hope this week markets will bring more action, really wasn't much focused myself.
Mama, I am glad you are O.K.. What is your take of the Aussie's next move?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,740
  • Oct 14, 2012 10:59am Oct 14, 2012 10:59am
China's data was surprisingly good. I am wondering if it was real. The reason is that the data was too good to be true. It could be a window dressing before next month's CCP power transfer IMO.

So, the Aussie may gap up at the open. Will it last? Is it time to fade the gap? This will be answered tonight.
daddybearforex. com
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