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My Learning Journey

  • #221
  • Oct 10, 2012 11:12am Oct 10, 2012 11:12am
Quoting aeternum
Closed.

Reopened new sell position at 1.29067, was looking for 1.291 but it kept going down so I got impatient. 1.29126 was 50% retracement on my charts. TP 1.27xx.

Edit: If we go any higher to 1.2925 or 1.293/4, I will add shorts there.
SL at BE + 1, highest I've seen it go down to almost 25 pips green. No intentions of closing it. If it busts my SL, I will look for a slightly higher position to re-enter, no losses there. TP 1.273/6.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #222
  • Oct 10, 2012 3:57pm Oct 10, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting aeternum
SL at BE + 1, highest I've seen it go down to almost 25 pips green. No intentions of closing it. If it busts my SL, I will look for a slightly higher position to re-enter, no losses there. TP 1.273/6.
It busted my SL and made a new low for the night. Seems like I missed a good entry. Not sure if having my SL at BE + 1 was the right thing to do or not.

Pending Short 1.2911, 1.2925. TP 1.273/6. If it doesn't hit, I will go scalp mode tomorrow and long at 1.273/6 manually.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #223
  • Oct 10, 2012 4:03pm Oct 10, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting aeternum
It busted my SL and made a new low for the night. Seems like I missed a good entry. Not sure if having my SL at BE + 1 was the right thing to do or not.

Pending Short 1.2911, 1.2925. TP 1.273/6. If it doesn't hit, I will go scalp mode tomorrow and long at 1.273/6 manually.
After seeing this huge drop, I think my entry is gone. I will wait for 1.27 to come.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #224
  • Oct 10, 2012 11:22pm Oct 10, 2012 11:22pm
Short AUDUSD 1.02783. Looking for a retest of lows near 1.015.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #225
  • Oct 11, 2012 7:03am Oct 11, 2012 7:03am
Entry Order Hit, Short EURUSD 1.2935, TP 1.273/6.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #226
  • Oct 11, 2012 7:15am Oct 11, 2012 7:15am
Quoting aeternum
Entry Order Hit, Short EURUSD 1.2935, TP 1.273/6.
Realised that 1.2935 was right on the top of the wick. HOW COOL.

SL now at BE.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #227
  • Oct 11, 2012 8:20am Oct 11, 2012 8:20am
Quoting aeternum
Entry Order Hit, Short EURUSD 1.2935, TP 1.273/6.
Got stopped out at BE. Price got to the highest point of 1.294. I shorted again at 1.29319 because I was afraid it won't go any higher like yesterday when I missed out the down move to 1.282.

Looking for 1.27xx.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #228
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:05pm Oct 11, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting aeternum
Got stopped out at BE. Price got to the highest point of 1.294. I shorted again at 1.29319 because I was afraid it won't go any higher like yesterday when I missed out the down move to 1.282.

Looking for 1.27xx.
I got this prediction thing going on before. It didn't really become the harmonic pattern but it did indeed retrace back to where I thought it might. If it goes down from here, I know where to take my profits at.

Also I know where the bullish momentum is coming from. Looks like we're bouncing from a doji close from yesterday. Guess we may be able to go a bit higher? Looking for a new low now definitely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 11 October 2012.png Size: 79 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #229
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:23pm Oct 11, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting aeternum
Short AUDUSD 1.02783. Looking for a retest of lows near 1.015.
Closed +9 pips. Going to focus entirely on EURUSD now.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #230
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:24pm Oct 11, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting aeternum
Got stopped out at BE. Price got to the highest point of 1.294. I shorted again at 1.29319 because I was afraid it won't go any higher like yesterday when I missed out the down move to 1.282.

Looking for 1.27xx.
I'm looking for a higher place to place more shorts. Either 1.298 or 1.3 if it does get there. May just continuously scalp for now.

Edit: Stochastics seems to be indicating a retracement of this move before a higher move. PA doesn't want to go below 1.293 either. What we saw early this week was PA testing 1.293 from 1.29875 and we broke lower eventually. This time we're pushing upwards. Will we succeed or fail?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #231
  • Oct 11, 2012 12:54pm Oct 11, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting aeternum
Got stopped out at BE. Price got to the highest point of 1.294. I shorted again at 1.29319 because I was afraid it won't go any higher like yesterday when I missed out the down move to 1.282.

Looking for 1.27xx.
Managed to close for a .4 pip profit and replaced it at 1.29376.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #232
  • Oct 11, 2012 1:04pm Oct 11, 2012 1:04pm
Check out what happens at 1.29337 each time price passes through it. When we're overbought, we go straight down. When we're oversold, we bounce off it.

Right now we're overbought and we're back at the same levels.

Edit: Also, the previous time Stochastic and MACD were on the same levels, we went to 1.28. Right now my wave count says that this is wave 4 correction of wave (c). If we break down low, I'm expecting a 1.27xx response. Still not sure of the exact levels, but I will definitely go look out for it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 11 October 2012 1H.png Size: 88 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #233
  • Oct 11, 2012 1:20pm Oct 11, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting aeternum
Check out what happens at 1.29337 each time price passes through it. When we're overbought, we go straight down. When we're oversold, we bounce off it.

Right now we're overbought and we're back at the same levels.

Edit: Also, the previous time Stochastic and MACD were on the same levels, we went to 1.28. Right now my wave count says that this is wave 4 correction of wave (c). If we break down low, I'm expecting a 1.27xx response. Still not sure of the exact levels, but I will definitely go look out for it.
Actually I'm getting bold. I'm looking for a 1.26 retrace. We have long forgotten this area where we simply ignored and shot past long ago. This area sits the 50% retracement of 1.20xx to 1.31xx.

Wonder if we'll get there and bounce on it.

Edit: Looked on the charts. Check that out. Seriously.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 11 October 2012 Daily.png Size: 106 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #234
  • Oct 12, 2012 2:44am Oct 12, 2012 2:44am
We shot up to the highs of 1.2975, close to where we were on Tuesday for highs.

As expected, when PA approached 1.293 from below, it overshot after consolidating. I took another short at 1.29652. Could have gotten a way better positioning but I wasn't sure if PA will be hanging around there any longer.

Taking a look at my charts, we could either be in a bullish butterfly or a bullish three-drive.

This is 61.8 of the move down from 1.307 and 38.2 of the move up from 1.28 to 1.307.

I'm looking for a 127.2 of the move up, or 161.8. Somewhere along 1.27xx.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #235
  • Oct 12, 2012 3:22am Oct 12, 2012 3:22am
Quoting aeternum
We shot up to the highs of 1.2975, close to where we were on Tuesday for highs.

As expected, when PA approached 1.293 from below, it overshot after consolidating. I took another short at 1.29652. Could have gotten a way better positioning but I wasn't sure if PA will be hanging around there any longer.

Taking a look at my charts, we could either be in a bullish butterfly or a bullish three-drive.

This is 61.8 of the move down from 1.307 and 38.2 of the move up from 1.28 to 1.307.

I'm looking for a 127.2 of the move up, or 161.8. Somewhere...
Shot up the highs of 1.2985 which was the same level as Tuesday.

It definitely has the momentum to burst through 1.28 now if it wants to. It probably may not happen by today, but it has that power to do so. And I certainly hope it does.

Edit: 50% of this move up is sitting at 1.29. Wonder if it will pause there and go back up.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #236
  • Oct 12, 2012 4:19am Oct 12, 2012 4:19am
Quoting aeternum
Shot up the highs of 1.2985 which was the same level as Tuesday.

It definitely has the momentum to burst through 1.28 now if it wants to. It probably may not happen by today, but it has that power to do so. And I certainly hope it does.

Edit: 50% of this move up is sitting at 1.29. Wonder if it will pause there and go back up.
Its trying to break 1.296 now. I'm looking to see if I should close this at 1.29 and go long or wait for 1.27xx. Elliot Wave counts suggest either could happen depending on which is right. So I think this is make or break and it will tell us the final pattern of the direction it would go. If it hits 1.27xx and goes up, we would see 1.35 and higher soon.

If it doesn't and goes up 1.3xx, we would go towards 1.25 and lower.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #237
  • Oct 12, 2012 6:11am Oct 12, 2012 6:11am
Quoting aeternum
I took another short at 1.29652. Could have gotten a way better positioning but I wasn't sure if PA will be hanging around there any longer.
Closed for 2 pips. Replaced short at 1.29674.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #238
  • Oct 12, 2012 8:19am Oct 12, 2012 8:19am
Quoting aeternum
Closed for 2 pips. Replaced short at 1.29674.
Should have waited to replace it at 1.298 or higher. We have tested and seemingly failed 1.299. There are still stops above at 1.3 which have yet to be tested.

A break past 1.307 would cancel out my wave counts and I will close everything. I guess I can say my SL is effectively 1.308, unless it decides to be funny and crash back down, but it would actually break my wave count.

I'm looking to a 1.25-1.27 low if this keeps up.

Edit: This move also seems like a break of a pennant which connects from highs of 1.31xx and lows of 1.28xx until here. Seems like this is point number 5 and breaking past 1.305 is effectively breaking out of this pennant. Again, unless it decides to be funny and shoot back down because on 4H we're really overbought, but we have room for movement in Daily.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #239
  • Oct 12, 2012 8:29am Oct 12, 2012 8:29am
Quoting aeternum
Short AUDUSD 1.02783. Looking for a retest of lows near 1.015.
Already closed this for 9 pips. Not gonna short AUDUSD, hurting my interest.

Edit: It is dropping like a bomb now though. Already 48 pips if I had continued holding on to it. Let's see if it can break the 1.01 barrier.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #240
  • Oct 12, 2012 10:13am Oct 12, 2012 10:13am
Quoting aeternum
Closed for 2 pips. Replaced short at 1.29674.
And off we go downwards. If the pennant holds and it doesn't break 1.2875, then I'll long from there. But if it does, I'm looking for 1.27xx or 1.26xx.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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