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AUD/USD

  • #53,761
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:32am Oct 12, 2012 12:32am
Quoting sidhujag
nope not after cutting 1.25bps in a year. The next cut is not priced in i bet. I still expect capitulation for this bull leg which i didnt see yet.
You probably wont see...

May i ask WHEN the 1.25 BPS rate cut happened? give me specific dates.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,762
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:34am Oct 12, 2012 12:34am
Quoting bguguen
Shakalala, THERE you goes Sidhujag, Prevous Rate Cut already doomed a failure...
good luck guys (Aussie Bulls), Australian Rate Cut is now Likely...
Australian Economy pressing for Aggressive Rate Cuts...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...mortgages.html
/at this stage no one really. care about high aud other than primary producers as you know farmers have no voice in any county. govt. like high aud as it make fuel price little cheaper (vote bank). did you ever seen Australian officials make any bearsh comment about aud
Mohan
  • #53,763
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:37am Oct 12, 2012 12:37am
The 0.75BPS rate cuts from March 4.25% toJune 3.5% lead to the Rally in AUDUSD 3 months later... and OH..... lookie here what happened 3 months after June?? September was the start of the rally from 1.02 to 1.06 tada....
interest rate explained.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,764
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:39am Oct 12, 2012 12:39am
Quoting bguguen
You probably wont see...

May i ask WHEN the 1.25 BPS rate cut happened? give me specific dates.
sorry 1.5 not 1.25
4.25 - 2.75 = 1.5 hope u can do simple arithmetic.

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tab...10-11-22-35-08
  • #53,765
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:41am Oct 12, 2012 12:41am
Quoting bguguen
The 0.75BPS rate cuts from March 4.25% toJune 3.5% lead to the Rally in AUDUSD 3 months later... and OH..... lookie here what happened 3 months after June?? September was the start of the rally from 1.02 to 1.06 tada....
interest rate explained.
there are other factors. Es correlation? They can only do so much. If market doesnt react they will keep at it and or intervene. Look at chf or jpy
  • #53,766
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:41am Oct 12, 2012 12:41am
Quoting mohan76
/at this stage no one really. care about high aud other than primary producers as you know farmers have no voice in any county. govt. like high aud as it make fuel price little cheaper (vote bank). did you ever seen Australian officials make any bearsh comment about aud
LOL, Did you ever see European Officials Make any bearish comment about the EURO before shit hit the fan?? ....

High AUD makes fuel price cheaper.... Australia doesnt Demand Fuel.... it Supplies FUEL..... Pls research wt Australia produces.... Iron, and Gas... With Australian Dollar being even ABOVE the American Dollar... Why not buy Fuel from US instead of Australia?? does it make sense?? Australian cant sell their Gas Abroad....

Also... High AUD makes Foreign Investment going into Australia difficult... have you read recently of Large Mining Production projects are being cancelled? i wonder why... oh i know AUD is too expensive, especially when you got to BUY the AUD in order to use the AUD to invest.... so investment simply just got cancelled...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,767
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:43am Oct 12, 2012 12:43am
Quoting sidhujag
sorry 1.5 not 1.25
4.25 - 2.75 = 1.5 hope u can do simple arithmetic.

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/tab...10-11-22-35-08
Lol buddy you are the one to say 1.25BP cut during the year, so maybe you should be asking yourself if you can do simple arithmetic when you are the one who posted the screwed up number...
Quoting sidhujag
nope not after cutting 1.25bps in a year. The next cut is not priced in i bet. I still expect capitulation for this bull leg which i didnt see yet.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,768
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:47am Oct 12, 2012 12:47am
Bloomberg.

Australia’s central bank is set to extend the developed world’s steepest interest rate cuts after banks failed to match its reductions, blunting their impact.

The Reserve Bank of Australia probably will lower its cash rate to a record-low 2.75 percent by February, from the current 3.25 percent, interest-rate swap prices show. The nation’s four biggest lenders, accounting for 85 percent of the bank mortgage market, have withheld about a quarter of the RBA’s 1.5 percentage points of cuts since November.

Australia’s central bank is set to extend the developed world’s steepest interest rate cuts after banks failed to match its reductions, blunting their impact.

The efforts of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens to stimulate the economy with lower borrowing costs are also being hampered as Australians boost savings to a record and repay debt instead of increasing spending. Recent economic releases have suggested lower borrowing costs are needed as newly built homes fell to the lowest on record in August and mortgage lending is growing at the weakest pace since records began in 1977.

“The fall in the cash rate has overstated the degree to which monetary policy has eased,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney. “The easing we’ve seen so far has just involved the Reserve Bank taking its foot off the brake, it hasn’t actually put its foot on the accelerator until perhaps now.”

National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) passed on 20 basis points of the RBA’s latest 25 basis point cut. Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) cut by 18 basis points. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
  • #53,769
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:48am Oct 12, 2012 12:48am
A Wise man once told me... A Strong Currency is a sign that the economy is dying and in its peak.... otherwise look at the Japs... yes the Yen is Strong... hence the reason why Japanese is NEVER a sought after place to invest in... especially when the Estimated YoY return in Japanese Investments are Negative....
Also.... CHF is strong right?? well they are strong indeed but SNB is smart enough to Ease their currency strength through the peg with euro so that Investment can still flow into the economy so that the economy doesnt shrink...
Go figure...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,770
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:53am Oct 12, 2012 12:53am
Quoting bguguen
LOL, Did you ever see European Officials Make any bearish comment about the EURO before shit hit the fan?? ....

High AUD makes fuel price cheaper.... Australia doesnt Demand Fuel.... it Supplies FUEL..... Pls research wt Australia produces.... Iron, and Gas... With Australian Dollar being even ABOVE the American Dollar... Why not buy Fuel from US instead of Australia?? does it make sense?? Australian cant sell their Gas Abroad....

Also... High AUD makes Foreign Investment going into Australia difficult... have you read recently of Large...
Quoting bguguen
LOL, Did you ever see European Officials Make any bearish comment about the EURO before shit hit the fan?? ....

High AUD makes fuel price cheaper.... Australia doesnt Demand Fuel.... it Supplies FUEL..... Pls research wt Australia produces.... Iron, and Gas... With Australian Dollar being even ABOVE the American Dollar... Why not buy Fuel from US instead of Australia?? does it make sense?? Australian cant sell their Gas Abroad....

Also... High AUD makes Foreign Investment going into Australia difficult... have you read recently of Large...


we do import 15 -20 % , oli pricing in USD. not aid,

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/facts/...uel_Market.htm
Mohan
  • #53,771
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:06am Oct 12, 2012 1:06am
Quoting mohan76
we do import 15 -20 % , oli pricing in USD. not aid,

http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/facts/...uel_Market.htm
A little look at the these data and i see... Australia Net imports Oil.... and Exports majorly Raw Materials to China such as iron, gold, machinery etc....
https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/as.html
Now if China doesnt BUY Iron, Gold and machinery from Australia, they could easily buy all these stuff From US.... when the exchange rate is cheaper to buy in US than in Australia... thats why you see lowered demand for australian exports....

But still you cannot disagree the fact that Australia sounds A Bit like Japan.... the fact they import fuel, and export machinery only thing helping australia is the other natural resources like iron and gold.... But still a STRONG currency is a Warning signal that the Economy is turning to the down side, peaked and about to weaken, thats probably why Investments are starting to pull out of Australia too...
Look at what the Strong Yen did to the Japanese Economy... Flat growth since 1980s peak... and economy on the verge of deflation too....

STRONG CURRENCY = DYING economy
WEAK CURRENCY = INCREASING Economic opportunity.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,772
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:16am Oct 12, 2012 1:16am
Quoting HelloOz
we had 75bps cut this year if im not wrong and AUD is still above parity..

rate cut alone will not do it i think..
That's because the yield from Australian investment is still too high compared to rest of world offerings. Therefore size of cuts at present is trying to stimulate domestic demand without scaring off foreign investors. AUD can & will correct if rates are cut much lower, which will happen if domestic demand doesn't respond to the stimulation.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,773
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:17am Oct 12, 2012 1:17am
Quoting bguguen
Lol buddy you are the one to say 1.25BP cut during the year, so maybe you should be asking yourself if you can do simple arithmetic when you are the one who posted the screwed up number...
listen kid i said 1.5 after. Keep adding short watch and learn kiddo
  • #53,774
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:18am Oct 12, 2012 1:18am
Quoting sidhujag
nope not after cutting 1.25bps in a year. The next cut is not priced in i bet. I still expect capitulation for this bull leg which i didnt see yet.
I'm guessing you didn't see Balmain Boys provision of this link:
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm

as I believe this shows rate cut is being priced in.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,775
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:19am Oct 12, 2012 1:19am
Quoting sidhujag
listen kid i said 1.5 after. Keep adding short watch and learn kiddo
dude you dont want to be the next DaddyBear... he went against me when i loaded short at 1.03, 1.04, 1.05 and 1.06 only to have them all TP at 1.02 only recently on my real account.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,776
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:21am Oct 12, 2012 1:21am
Quoting bguguen
A little look at the these data and i see... Australia Net imports Oil.... and Exports majorly Raw Materials to China such as iron, gold, machinery etc....
https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/as.html
Now if China doesnt BUY Iron, Gold and machinery from Australia, they could easily buy all these stuff From US.... when the exchange rate is cheaper to buy in US than in Australia... thats why you see lowered demand for australian exports....

But still you cannot disagree the fact that Australia sounds A...
There shouldnt be a notion of strong or weak currency it should be balanced. Us had strong currency from 80s and their manufacturing peaked at a time when they signed to devalue usd long term. It created a bubble but is that oppurtunity. I see less ppl working and more ppl reaping benefits from others.
  • #53,777
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:21am Oct 12, 2012 1:21am
Quoting bguguen
You probably wont see...

May i ask WHEN the 1.25 BPS rate cut happened? give me specific dates.
see attached from our very own FF site plus add in the October cut.
Attached Image
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,778
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:23am Oct 12, 2012 1:23am
Quoting bguguen
dude you dont want to be the next DaddyBear... he went against me when i loaded short at 1.03, 1.04, 1.05 and 1.06 only to have them all TP at 1.02 only recently on my real account.
ya one day u will lose ur shirt with that style of trading. What kind of risk u adding at each level? So if u had gotten it right at 1.03 thats hardly anything to brag about if we are indeed at a top.
  • #53,779
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:24am Oct 12, 2012 1:24am
Quoting sidhujag
There shouldnt be a notion of strong or weak currency it should be balanced. Us had strong currency from 80s and their manufacturing peaked at a time when they signed to devalue usd long term. It created a bubble but is that oppurtunity. I see less ppl working and more ppl reaping benefits from others.
the US Dollar is an Exception unfortunately.... Because The world is Based heavily on US Dollars... to many country using US Dollar as medium of trade
Reason why the US dollar has depreciated in value is because they printed so much money to fund their government spending over the last 2-3 decades.
Nothing to do with Investment flows when im talking about currencies like Yen and Chf being strong is a signal that these economies are dying... AUD being strong is going to follow the same fate if they dont do anything about it to ease....

YEN unfortunately is dying because they are export reliant... CHF not so,since they dont export shit... but AUD exports.... and im telling you Strong AUD is going to lead them to the same fate YEN is facing...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,780
  • Oct 12, 2012 1:26am Oct 12, 2012 1:26am
Quoting mohan76
/at this stage no one really. care about high aud other than primary producers as you know farmers have no voice in any county. govt. like high aud as it make fuel price little cheaper (vote bank). did you ever seen Australian officials make any bearsh comment about aud
Does the governor of the RBA (the body who sets rates) count as an Australian official?

He's said it several times but I quote from the October statement "exchange rate has remained higher than might have been expected, given the observed decline in export prices and the weaker global outlook"
http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2012/mr-12-30.html
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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