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AUD/USD

  • #53,741
  • Oct 11, 2012 10:43pm Oct 11, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
Lots of great posts on this thread lately. I have learned alot from many of you experienced traders. Specifically the fundamentals which are my favorite nuggets of information.

On my U.S. dollar index I noticed that it has dipped down past the weekly opening a couple of times in the last 24 hours. If the dollar breaks past 9,900 with strong momentum, my guestimate is that it will be start heading for the neck line, unless some crazy news comes out and stops it. It seems lately, that every banker and politician wants to be in the limelight recently,...
You are right to think that this is the case when it IS the case.... Sadly Foreign Exchange market is not AS regulated as Equities trading...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,742
  • Oct 11, 2012 10:50pm Oct 11, 2012 10:50pm
0.5 lot long on UCAD... this'll be interesting.... TP at 0.9870
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,743
  • Oct 11, 2012 10:53pm Oct 11, 2012 10:53pm
I absolutely agree with you B that the longer term trend is down. I just play the market both ways. why not right? Lol

We still may see another exhaustion move above the 0300(but this coold of been it) we will see. Letting the 68 play out here. It Will be interesting to see how Asian markets close out their week....
  • #53,744
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:02pm Oct 11, 2012 11:02pm
Quoting bguguen
0.5 lot long on UCAD... this'll be interesting.... TP at 0.9870
Now I remember you old chap


From The Cable thread
  • #53,745
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:10pm Oct 11, 2012 11:10pm
Quoting Acroix70
Now I remember you old chap


From The Cable thread
and?? http://www.smilies.our-local.co.uk/index_files/e022.gif
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,746
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:17pm Oct 11, 2012 11:17pm
Quoting bguguen
Yep ur right on the chinese data...

but have a look

 

  1. Says Australia to withstand global economic uncertainty.
  2. Australia expecting turn around trend growth next year.
  3. Europe needs to meet its commitments quicker.
  4. says Asia can’t ‘carry the load’ of global growth.
  5. Europe should instigate short-term fiscal stimulation.
  6. China rebalancing economy toward domestic consumption.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...lobal-economy/

See the bolded last line??...

Firstly, seems to me you are trading based heavily on fundamentals (not entirely as I know you are look at support & resistance) which is fine if in for long term but when I saw your comment "but ill be in trouble if this breaks above 1.0300/0330" some alarm bells rang. Trading for long term means having risk management such that you wouldn't get in trouble.

Secondly, rebalancing to domestic consumption doesn't equate to bad news for Australia. Domestic consumption can still come from imports, but as I understand it just means that they are looking to consume rather than export. Granted that may lead to a change in what they import which could be bad news. However, rebalancing to internal consumption suggests to me that trade balance is more likely to be low and earlier you were saying that a high trade balance was bad for Australia.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,747
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:25pm Oct 11, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting dab
Firstly, seems to me you are trading based heavily on fundamentals (not entirely as I know you are look at support & resistance) which is fine if in for long term but when I saw your comment "but ill be in trouble if this breaks above 1.0300/0330" some alarm bells rang. Trading for long term means having risk management such that you wouldn't get in trouble.

Secondly, rebalancing to domestic consumption doesn't equate to bad news for Australia. Domestic consumption can still come from imports, but as I understand it just means that they...
in Trouble means i will have to reposition myself... doesnt mean im in the gutter buddy....
Besides knowing the fact ive been Trading and on these forums since atleast 2010, i guess i Have enough experience when it comes to trading, think i've learnt my fair share of margin calls and money management.

As for the Second bit about Rebalancing to Domestic Consumption, we'll see buddy, When an economy like China is rebalancing to domestic consumption, i cant help but to think that they will fail, their economy would suffer when they do so, since China is run by fake money anyways... If there are any signs of a successful domestic driven economy, their Equity Market would've been skyrocketing by now....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,748
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:37pm Oct 11, 2012 11:37pm
aud/usd is in a technical uptrend till 1.07
  • #53,749
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:42pm Oct 11, 2012 11:42pm
Quoting staffpro
aud/usd is in a technical uptrend till 1.07
says who?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,750
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:50pm Oct 11, 2012 11:50pm
Quoting bguguen
in Trouble means i will have to reposition myself... doesnt mean im in the gutter buddy....
Besides knowing the fact ive been Trading and on these forums since atleast 2010, i guess i Have enough experience when it comes to trading, think i've learnt my fair share of margin calls and money management.

As for the Second bit about Rebalancing to Domestic Consumption, we'll see buddy, When an economy like China is rebalancing to domestic consumption, i cant help but to think that they will fail, their economy would suffer when they do so, since China...
1. Glad to hear it would only mean needing repositioning
2. Good point and hope you're right sooner than later as I'm short too.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,751
  • Oct 11, 2012 11:52pm Oct 11, 2012 11:52pm
Quoting dab
1. Glad to hear it would only mean needing repositioning
2. Good point and hope you're right sooner than later as I'm short too.
im having more luck on GBPUSD... calling Bearish Divergence on H4 one after the other one....

Look at the yellow lines on the RSI and the corresponding yellow lines in the chart... see those divergence??
GBPUSD is probably gona make new lows...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h4.gif Size: 24 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,752
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:02am Oct 12, 2012 12:02am
Quoting bguguen
Yep ur right on the chinese data...

but have a look

 

  1. Says Australia to withstand global economic uncertainty.
  2. Australia expecting turn around trend growth next year.
  3. Europe needs to meet its commitments quicker.
  4. says Asia can’t ‘carry the load’ of global growth.
  5. Europe should instigate short-term fiscal stimulation.
  6. China rebalancing economy toward domestic consumption.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...lobal-economy/

See the bolded...



as long us they need raw material we r fine .
Mohan
  • #53,753
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:05am Oct 12, 2012 12:05am
Quoting mohan76
as long us they need raw material we r fine .
But that's the point they are cutting back due to a economic slowdown
  • #53,754
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:06am Oct 12, 2012 12:06am
Quoting mohan76
as long us they need raw material we r fine .
China has abundant raw materials by themselves... only reason why China is buying from Australia for the past decade is because Australia's Raw Materials WERE cheap.... however at this price level of the Australian Dollar... China is Lowering demand of Australian Resources and we can see that.... so When China's deliberatly Weakening the Yuan, the Australian will also have to Weaken the Australian Dollar to catch up with the Yuan, or Australia will simply lose out to China in the Export War....

Need i mention that Saudi and other middle east countries can offer China cheaper resources than Australia nowadays? Thats why Australia sees the significance of weakening the currency to keep China interested....
Also China found a HUGE saudi size oil field under that Island they are fighting with Japan against....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,755
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:21am Oct 12, 2012 12:21am
dont matter look at how many years boj has been fighting a strong yen. Since 86. Aus is not the same level but asset inflation has caused aud to go up here. They really will have to decrease rates alot more and probably intervene before a sustained downtrend sets in. Look for manufacturing to drop year over year before they start yapping about intervention. We all know imbalances created vis intervention NEVER works. It will be good if they dont.

Regarding the yen only way it will weaken long term is if it turns without intervention. A real market can take it back. Esp since there is nothing left in that economy it could be a botttoming point. However retailers are still short yen so i dont expect it here
  • #53,756
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:22am Oct 12, 2012 12:22am
Shakalala, THERE you goes Sidhujag, Prevous Rate Cut already doomed a failure...
good luck guys (Aussie Bulls), Australian Rate Cut is now Likely...
Australian Economy pressing for Aggressive Rate Cuts...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...mortgages.html
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,757
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:27am Oct 12, 2012 12:27am
we had 75bps cut this year if im not wrong and AUD is still above parity..

rate cut alone will not do it i think..


Quoting bguguen
Shakalala, THERE you goes Sidhujag, Prevous Rate Cut already doomed a failure...
good luck guys (Aussie Bulls), Australian Rate Cut is now Likely...
Australian Economy pressing for Aggressive Rate Cuts...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...mortgages.html
  • #53,758
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:27am Oct 12, 2012 12:27am
Quoting bguguen
Shakalala, THERE you goes Sidhujag, Prevous Rate Cut already doomed a failure...
good luck guys (Aussie Bulls), Australian Rate Cut is now Likely...
Australian Economy pressing for Aggressive Rate Cuts...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...mortgages.html
if they do a nice rally would make sense leading up to it
  • #53,759
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:28am Oct 12, 2012 12:28am
Quoting sidhujag
if they do a nice rally would make sense leading up to it
rallies often happen months AFTER rate cuts, not before.
As Rate cuts are being PRICED IN NOW.... meaning the effects of an expected rate cuts are what happens BEFORE rate cut... so more downside.
I guess i dont need to mention that AUDUSD turned bearish from 1.06 to 1.05 JUST before the october 2nd interest rate cut was announced....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,760
  • Oct 12, 2012 12:30am Oct 12, 2012 12:30am
Quoting bguguen
rallies often happen months AFTER rate cuts, not before.
As Rate cuts are being PRICED IN NOW.... meaning the effects of an expected rate cuts are what happens BEFORE rate cut... so more downside.
nope not after cutting 1.25bps in a year. The next cut is not priced in i bet. I still expect capitulation for this bull leg which i didnt see yet.
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