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  • #2,161
  • Oct 11, 2012 2:13am Oct 11, 2012 2:13am
Eye candy for bears....

High and rising yields could bring a concerted effort to take out the 200 DMA and 2803 just below....

Building a short position with a pretty close stop above 2912... Would like to short higher, but may not get the chance for higher....
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  • #2,162
  • Oct 11, 2012 2:40am Oct 11, 2012 2:40am
Traders betting that Spain downgrade and rising Spanish yields will force Spain's hand making it ask for a bailout, and triggering Draghi's OMT program.

The poor level for shorts from a Risk/Reward standpoint has such bettors driving price up as many don't want to short so close to the 200 DMA are not yet pushing back on the buyers.
  • #2,163
  • Oct 11, 2012 2:47am Oct 11, 2012 2:47am
Quoting Crassius
Traders betting that Spain downgrade and rising Spanish yields will force Spain's hand making it ask for a bailout, and triggering Draghi's OMT program.

The poor level for shorts from a Risk/Reward standpoint has such bettors driving price up as many don't want to short so close to the 200 DMA are not yet pushing back on the buyers.
Crassius.. Excuse my ignorance what is the DMA??..ie 200dayDMA

scalping at mo on 5 min with USDX 15 min as lead.. wit some success.. some i said mind yours .. thks yr thoughts on Spain
  • #2,164
  • Oct 11, 2012 3:08am Oct 11, 2012 3:08am
Quoting Crassius
Traders betting that Spain downgrade and rising Spanish yields will force Spain's hand making it ask for a bailout, and triggering Draghi's OMT program.

The poor level for shorts from a Risk/Reward standpoint has such bettors driving price up as many don't want to short so close to the 200 DMA are not yet pushing back on the buyers.
Hi Crassius,Citi saying market is 56% short,
I'm looking for a push higher if we can hold the lows,
i don't see any sellers down here .....yet.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #2,165
  • Oct 11, 2012 4:29am Oct 11, 2012 4:29am
USDX.. 1 hr if it breaks ltrend line and 100 d ma i long Euro
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  • #2,166
  • Oct 11, 2012 5:26am Oct 11, 2012 5:26am
Quoting danc
Crassius.. Excuse my ignorance what is the DMA??..ie 200dayDMA
DMA = Day Moving Average

200 DMA = 200 Day Moving Average
  • #2,167
  • Oct 11, 2012 5:37am Oct 11, 2012 5:37am
Quoting Crassius

Building a short position with a pretty close stop above 2912... Would like to short higher, but may not get the chance for higher....

Stopped out again....
  • #2,168
  • Oct 11, 2012 6:21am Oct 11, 2012 6:21am
Quoting jezek5
Hi Crassius,Citi saying market is 56% short,
I'm looking for a push higher if we can hold the lows,
i don't see any sellers down here .....yet.

50 pips higher still no sellers.....yet,
would like a retest of 2860 to check a
few things then looking for it to push higher
if it plays out.
2970 could be good.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #2,169
  • Oct 11, 2012 6:57am Oct 11, 2012 6:57am
Quoting Crassius
DMA = Day Moving Average

200 DMA = 200 Day Moving Average
Yes but sma.. ?? EMA?? weighted??
  • #2,170
  • Oct 11, 2012 8:11pm Oct 11, 2012 8:11pm
USDX..4 hr picture.. I reckon hi prob down.. just my opn of course..may go up a little of course..BUT
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  • #2,171
  • Oct 12, 2012 5:12am Oct 12, 2012 5:12am
Quoting jezek5
50 pips higher still no sellers.....yet,
would like a retest of 2860 to check a
few things then looking for it to push higher
if it plays out.
2970 could be good.

OK,never got any pullback test,still looking for one
but the level is moved up to around 2880-2900 i'm out,
flat and done for the week.
This market is just so thin,i posted this somewhere else
a couple of weeks ago that FX spot volumes are down
39% on last year and you can certainly feel that i think.
Have a good weekend guys .
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #2,172
  • Edited 5:18am Oct 12, 2012 5:16am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting jezek5
OK,never got any pullback test,still looking for one
but the level is moved up to around 2880-2900 i'm out,
flat and done for the week.
This market is just so thin,i posted this somewhere else
a couple of weeks ago that FX spot volumes are down
39% on last year and you can certainly feel that i think.
Have a good weekend guys .

Scope is to 3021 at least... we are in a wave three off the bounce from the 200 DMA yesterday. Wave three the longest strongest and the big ass money maker.... 3021 would be its lowest target.

We are also in a wave 3 of a Higher degree... the two working together are very strong.
  • #2,173
  • Edited 6:32am Oct 12, 2012 6:23am | Edited 6:32am
Quoting Crassius
I posted this pic yesterday and still see it as the most likely future direction..... sideways.... in a corrective grind.

Elliotticians call it a leading diagonal triangle, traditional chartists will call it a wedge when it is fully formed. The deep retrace off the 10/5 high at 3070 is key to this interpretation and holds until the monthly opening low, 2803 which has very strong seasonality, and is protected by the 200 DMA holds.

Not a very conducive environment for profits for people who look for real moves and not scalp inside minor (eye of...

I took a loss yesterday based on the above linked count, but was proven wrong by the strong rally. The entire price action off 3173 is now seen as one ABC correction....

This puts the market on a very strong footing.... the Red 2 at yesterdays low is a position traders turning point... a wave 3 of that degree will be hundreds and hundreds of pips long, which is one reason it fits so well as the first real test of the trend line all the way from the 204X low.

Nested inside that big degree (scale) are smaller waves of course. The one noted with a red ii, is of immediate importance today, as we are in a wave 3 of that degree (SubMicro)... It provides the targets on the chart attached.

There will be fits and starts and sideways action of course.... but when you are in a couple of nested wave 3's, you want to be thinking about buying dips, not fading.

It's is earnings season, and some banks report today.... they can have a effect of stock market averages so I'll be patient, and not let dips rattle me while we are in this pattern..... I'll be buying instead of thinking of dumping.
Attached Image
  • #2,174
  • Oct 12, 2012 7:55am Oct 12, 2012 7:55am
2987 is of interest.... its the likely terminus of a wave 5, calling for a corrective wave to follow.

May be short term top form in this zone, before we get a chance to get through 3000....

Running out of time this week.... 3000 psych level as well... not a level easily popped late on a Friday.
  • #2,175
  • Edited 8:00am Oct 12, 2012 7:58am | Edited 8:00am
Quoting Crassius
2987 is of interest.... its the likely terminus of a wave 5, calling for a corrective wave to follow.

May be short term top form in this zone, before we get a chance to get through 3000....

Running out of time this week.... 3000 psych level as well... not a level easily popped late on a Friday.

Booked some profit here at 2985 ahead of the week end and above anticipation....

Looking to add lower... Monday most likely. Short term Correction needs to take place before we best 3000....

Sometimes wave 5's are extended waves though.. nothing writtenin stone says s987ish must be top.... its just more likely than not.
  • #2,176
  • Oct 14, 2012 8:48pm Oct 14, 2012 8:48pm
We trade at 2909 in a correction off 2990 Asian lows so far.... The legs of the "Spanish bailout is just around the corner" hopium rally seem to have been chopped out from under.

I am still bullish as long as the 200 DMA holds, and have layered buy orders from 2900 down to 2835, stop below 2800.

Should the 200 DMA give way, which seems unlikely given the current count, and past very strong buying anytime we get close, my Elliott count would change, and so would my sentiment.

Bullish till then, and buying on weakness back to the 200 DMA.
  • #2,177
  • Oct 15, 2012 2:10am Oct 15, 2012 2:10am
Break above 2930/35 key to more upside short term. My trade this morning is a swing trade, so a medium term outlook on the trade, but would like to put this shor t term bearish momentum into the past .
  • #2,178
  • Oct 15, 2012 2:19am Oct 15, 2012 2:19am
picture 15 min.. long 2916,,stop now 2910
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  • #2,179
  • Oct 15, 2012 2:22am Oct 15, 2012 2:22am
Quoting Crassius
Break above 2930/35 key to more upside short term. My trade this morning is a swing trade, so a medium term outlook on the trade, but would like to put this shor t term bearish momentum into the past .
200 HMA 2937... getting established above open door to an attempt at Friday's high
  • #2,180
  • Oct 15, 2012 2:32am Oct 15, 2012 2:32am
closed 20.. reason.. day pivot 24.. 3 week pivot.. 35.. 5 week pivot.. 53.. watc
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