AUD/USD | Page 2686 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #53,701
  • Oct 11, 2012 4:49pm Oct 11, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting Acroix70
Exactly, less of a demand for Australian basic materials would hurt their economy seeing how it is soo dependent on China to buy their exports.
Indeed.... Soooo with Expectation at 20.4B, any number ABOVE 20.4B means their China's Export increased and Import Decreased... (Chinese Imports = Australian's Export).
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,702
  • Oct 11, 2012 4:57pm Oct 11, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting bguguen
Indeed.... Soooo with Expectation at 20.4B, any number ABOVE 20.4B means their China's Export increased and Import Decreased... (Chinese Imports = Australian's Export).
Yes and any number lower means less Aussie goods bought which wont be good for its currency
  • #53,703
  • Oct 11, 2012 4:58pm Oct 11, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting bguguen
Dont like them one bit, Chart price is not the same as actual price... you got fix spreads meaning at high volatility they will put slippage so your order gets filled FURTHER than you expected...

But the best part is i dont have swap charges on me.... sooo i just try to deal with it.
I had looked into them for awhile but decided to go with Hotforex. Good broker IMO
  • #53,704
  • Oct 11, 2012 5:13pm Oct 11, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting bguguen
Dont like them one bit, Chart price is not the same as actual price... you got fix spreads meaning at high volatility they will put slippage so your order gets filled FURTHER than you expected...

But the best part is i dont have swap charges on me.... sooo i just try to deal with it.
Do those problems combined with no swap charges mean you use them for shorts only?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,705
  • Oct 11, 2012 5:15pm Oct 11, 2012 5:15pm
Quoting Acroix70
Yes and any number lower means less Aussie goods bought which wont be good for its currency
No ur mixing it up.... HIGHER NUMBER means LOWERED AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS....

Trade Balance (China) = (Chinese Export - Chinese Imports)
SO the fact that Trade Balance is Positive say 20.4Billion means Chinese is Exporting more than Importing... BAD NEWS for Australia... Because Chinese IMPORTS = AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS

Now if that Number Increases, means MORE BAD NEWS for Australia....

SO for Bears, EXPECT BAD news when Trade Balance is ABOVE 20.4, Better yet... ABOVE the Previous 26.7B would be Best way to kill a the australian bulls.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,706
  • Oct 11, 2012 5:16pm Oct 11, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting dab
Do those problems combined with no swap charges mean you use them for shorts only?
i dont know... but i have no Swap regardless if they are Positive interest or Negative Interests.... Sooo Thats the only good thing.... cuz i can hold a trade for LONG periods of time and not get killed by Negative Carry Trade Interest Charges, but i wont benefit from Positive Carry Trade Interest Either...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,707
  • Oct 11, 2012 5:33pm Oct 11, 2012 5:33pm
Mate, im from Sydney..
seems like you want oz to go down..
which i will be unemployed soon..
will you hire me




Quoting bguguen
No ur mixing it up.... HIGHER NUMBER means LOWERED AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS....

Trade Balance (China) = (Chinese Export - Chinese Imports)
SO the fact that Trade Balance is Positive say 20.4Billion means Chinese is Exporting more than Importing... BAD NEWS for Australia... Because Chinese IMPORTS = AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS

Now if that Number Increases, means MORE BAD NEWS for Australia....

SO for Bears, EXPECT BAD news when Trade Balance is ABOVE 20.4, Better yet... ABOVE the Previous 26.7B would be Best way to kill a the australian bulls.
  • #53,708
  • Oct 11, 2012 5:35pm Oct 11, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting bguguen
No ur mixing it up.... HIGHER NUMBER means LOWERED AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS....

Trade Balance (China) = (Chinese Export - Chinese Imports)
SO the fact that Trade Balance is Positive say 20.4Billion means Chinese is Exporting more than Importing... BAD NEWS for Australia... Because Chinese IMPORTS = AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS

Now if that Number Increases, means MORE BAD NEWS for Australia....

SO for Bears, EXPECT BAD news when Trade Balance is ABOVE 20.4, Better yet... ABOVE the Previous 26.7B would be Best way to kill a the australian bulls.
Not sure it's that simple. I agree that China imports relate to Australian exports but the headline number is only a balance. 20B balance can be the result of 200B Exports & 180B imports or of 30 & 10. Larger numbers with same balance is better for Australia. Can also be that some look and see good number for China and equate that to good for Australia (longer term view as if balance is healthy they are more likely to not cut back on imports....)
So lesson 1. Look beyond the headline number
Lesson 2. Get confirmation that the price action is reacting the same way you expect.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,709
  • Oct 11, 2012 5:45pm Oct 11, 2012 5:45pm
Quoting dab
Not sure it's that simple. I agree that China imports relate to Australian exports but the headline number is only a balance. 20B balance can be the result of 200B Exports & 180B imports or of 30 & 10. Larger numbers with same balance is better for Australia. Can also be that some look and see good number for China and equate that to good for Australia (longer term view as if balance is healthy they are more likely to not cut back on imports....)
So lesson 1. Look beyond the headline number
Lesson 2. Get confirmation that the price action is reacting...
You are indeed right... however headline number does give you the idea what the general trend is...
Think about it this way... if 20.4B with Australian exports being 50% of Chinese IMports.... A Rise in trade balance could mean China increased in Exports, OR a Drop in Imports. This is where things go tricky... China has been Moving Away from being an export driven economy so one would expect the Trade Balance to be Import Influenced rather than Export....
So if Trade balance goes up, one can immediately assume its a Drop in Imports causing the rise in China's Trade Balance.

IF this is the case... another way to look at this... if Chinese IMport Drops and Australian Export Equates more than 75% of Chinese Imports, then its hard to say that it doesnt affect Australia....
BUT if Australia's Export equates to 25% of Chinese Imports, Its easy for China to make adjustment lowering the remaining 75% to keep Australia's Export Unchanged, but it means other chinese trade partners would be affected...

Its a Zero Sum Game when it comes to Trade Balance.... Thats the Miracle of Balance sheet... it Balances off in the end of the day. but the Headline Number WILL DETERMINE about Australian Export Performance....

so Expect a number ABOVE 20.4B Forecast to be BAD news for Australia if its Chinese' Import Shrink which leads to the Increase in Trade Balance.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,710
  • Oct 11, 2012 6:24pm Oct 11, 2012 6:24pm
why is the audusd moving dont right now??
  • #53,711
  • Oct 11, 2012 6:26pm Oct 11, 2012 6:26pm
its Asia session dude.... it doesnt need a movement to move up or move down....
BUT im still bearish....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,712
  • Oct 11, 2012 6:32pm Oct 11, 2012 6:32pm
Quoting bguguen
its Asia session dude.... it doesnt need a movement to move up or move down....
BUT im still bearish....
Im 4rextrader and i approve this message
  • #53,713
  • Oct 11, 2012 6:33pm Oct 11, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting 4rextrader
Im 4rextrader and i approve this message
Fuck me i mean *reason*...
Its asia session it doesnt need no reason for it to move up or down...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,714
  • Oct 11, 2012 6:33pm Oct 11, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting lcuki
why is the audusd moving dont right now??
it might be the market correcting the movement on the previous session, it might be.. like the guy said, there's no reason
  • #53,715
  • Oct 11, 2012 7:12pm Oct 11, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Hey brother one quick little correction. Im just saying this to help fellow traders in here in knowing how to properly utilize "risk-on" and risk-off" while trading.

Always remember that we are trading an instrument comprised of two different currencies. Each currency is sensitive to different things.

In each trade we take it is our job as traders to understand which currency is driving the move. This is what the importance of understanding correlating pairs and analyzing correlated markets comes in.

Risk-on and risk-off are...

Interesting and very well said. I have to admit I was a "little" biased in my post as I am short AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, NZD/USD, as well as GBP/JPY for probably the next few weeks.

As for AUD/NZD, I've actually been watching it since you brought it to my attention a few weeks ago and I should have realized that it had hit the bottom and should have been a buy earlier this week!

What I normally do with my charts first is I draw support and resistance "zones" from the weekly and monthly time frame. For some reason I let my emotions get the best of me and thought the AUD was going to fall into the abyss... As you can see from the weekly chart the AUD/NZD, it hit the "support zone" and is now headed back up.

My Thoughts: If AUD/USD is heading lower in the next few weeks/months then NZD will be headed lower as well, but will fall much quicker than the AUD due to the fact that AUD/NZD is already coming up off of a weekly support zone.

Obviously this is all based on the theory that AUD/USD and NZD/USD are moving down against the USD.

What are your thoughts?

**By the way, that was a really nice post Wulf! I definitely have lots to learn and am glad to have people like you posting and sharing your thoughts for all of us. Informative and respectful.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD Weekly (10-11-2012).jpg Size: 199 KB
  • #53,716
  • Oct 11, 2012 7:26pm Oct 11, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting mohan76
both long and shrot can be success full , all depends on target , s/l and how strong is your heart
You are absolutely right! It all depends on the individuals style of trading...

(Day, Swing, Position)

It's all about personal preference and what works for you.
  • #53,717
  • Oct 11, 2012 8:06pm Oct 11, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
You are absolutely right! It all depends on the individuals style of trading...

(Day, Swing, Position)

It's all about personal preference and what works for you.
Personally 1.03 and 1.0330 are my last lines of defense fo my bearish move, however im glad to see it topped out yesterday at 1.0290 happens to be my big lot short there too
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,718
  • Oct 11, 2012 8:23pm Oct 11, 2012 8:23pm
Really strange spikes going on right now... anyone know if there is a new release out?
  • #53,719
  • Oct 11, 2012 8:27pm Oct 11, 2012 8:27pm
TPed the first batch of longs from the 50's @ 81

Loading up for the next move.... 94/04 is next... then the 17

http://clip2net.com/s/2o5WJ
  • #53,720
  • Oct 11, 2012 8:41pm Oct 11, 2012 8:41pm
Quoting bguguen
Personally 1.03 and 1.0330 are my last lines of defense fo my bearish move, however im glad to see it topped out yesterday at 1.0290 happens to be my big lot short there too
I am actually surprised that AUD has gone so far up after the recent downward movement...

By the way, I'm right there with you with the 1.03 area. If we break AND close above the Daily downtrend at roughly 1.0320 then I will look to close most of my short positions.

Weekly candle is not looking good!

**My wireless is so weak I can't upload the chart with D1 TL.
262 traders viewing now