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AUD/USD

  • #53,601
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:46pm Oct 10, 2012 5:46pm
Short 252 244
Lets rip some pips
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #53,602
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:48pm Oct 10, 2012 5:48pm
I'm long from 1.0241
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,603
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:48pm Oct 10, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
What was your entry price?
185 on the china dip yesterday
  • #53,604
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:51pm Oct 10, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting jplazard
the participation rate is steady, full time employment increase, part time employment increasing, and more jobs were created than expected.
People want to work and are actively looking- that is the take away ppl should see from this and its good for AUD

Question is will the positions be filled that we have to wait for.
The ABS reported the number of people employed increased by 14,500 to 11,511,900 in September. The increase in employment was driven by increased full-time employment, up 32,100 people to 8,107,000, and was offset by decreased part-time employment, down 17,700 people to 3,404,900. The increase in employment was driven by increased female full-time employment, up 32,100 to 2,876,300.

The number of people unemployed increased by 38,800 people to 662,700 in September.

The ABS monthly aggregate hours worked series showed an increase in September, up 7.6 million hours to 1,627.5 million hours.

The ABS reported a seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate increase of 0.2 percentage points to 65.2 per cent in September.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #53,605
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:51pm Oct 10, 2012 5:51pm
Short e/a from 1.2565, What a beautiful pair. Classic peaks and troughs lower.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,606
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:53pm Oct 10, 2012 5:53pm
AUD will fall as quickly as it rose
  • #53,607
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:54pm Oct 10, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting bogus
Short e/a from 1.2565, What a beautiful pair. Classic peaks and troughs lower.
Check out the weekly candle.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #53,608
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:56pm Oct 10, 2012 5:56pm
this hourly is noise either it will follow through in a few minutes here a bit but London will decide the move
  • #53,609
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:57pm Oct 10, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting stulic
Check out the weekly candle.
I'm embarrassed to say I only took 90 pips of the last move . My first TP on this one is 1.2460
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,610
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:58pm Oct 10, 2012 5:58pm
Rejected at R1 so far.

Surprised that this didn't even break R1 within 30 minutes after news.

AUD/JPY didn't even touch R1.

Interesting...
  • #53,611
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:00pm Oct 10, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting bogus
Short e/a from 1.2565, What a beautiful pair. Classic peaks and troughs lower.
Same here, sudden +53 pips spike.

I believe AUD may still rise because EUR drops at the same time AUD rises and with the SP downgraded Spain, the money could flow to AUD.
  • #53,612
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:00pm Oct 10, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Rejected at R1 so far.

Surprised that this didn't even break R1 within 30 minutes after news.

AUD/JPY didn't even touch R1.

Interesting...
plot EMA55 and EMA200 on yoru H4 and tell me where we are meetin resistance?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,613
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:00pm Oct 10, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting bguguen
Change rose 14.5k (survey 5k, prior -8.8k revised -9.1k)
Unemployment rate rose to 5.4% (survey 5.3%, prior 5.1%)
Full time employment rose 32.1k(prior 0.6k, revised 0.8k).
Part time employment fell 17.7k (prior -9.3k revised -9.9k).
Participation rate rose to 65.2% (survey 65.0%, prior 65.0%).

Participation only up 0.2%.... Unemployment rate increased by 0.3%...

Participation versus Unemployment.
+0.2%-0.3% = -0.1%....

Ha ha ha ! That's not how you derive the Unemployment Rate !
I'd be asking for a refund on that economics course you're studying ...
  • #53,614
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:02pm Oct 10, 2012 6:02pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
Ha ha ha ! That's not how you derive the Unemployment Rate !
I'd be asking for a refund on the econmics course you're studying ...
I never said about IT being unemployment rate...
that is the Participation versus Unemployment, im not even gona begin to tell you what the number means.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,615
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:03pm Oct 10, 2012 6:03pm
we broke a new high for the week I don't know if people were expecting a 100pip move right off the bat but I only wish markets worked like that.

News release=news traders who are in and out constantly in the first hour. Once the orderflow is back to more norm levels the trend will establish itself or range either way don't pay to much mind on the news hourly bar its only noise.
  • #53,616
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:06pm Oct 10, 2012 6:06pm
Quoting Ken A
Same here, sudden +53 pips spike.

I believe AUD may still rise because EUR drops at the same time AUD rises and with the SP downgraded Spain, the money could flow to AUD.
Nice I'm purely a chartist. Interesting hearing about the fundamentals. Short e/y and e/u as well.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,617
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:08pm Oct 10, 2012 6:08pm
gimme a minute and ill compile some analysis on the participation vs unemployment data.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,618
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:10pm Oct 10, 2012 6:10pm
from smh.com.au dailyblog,

11.53am: Interesting that while the market is giving the jobs data a thumbs-up, most economists see them as further proof the economy is slowing and the RBA will need to cut rates ASAP. Here are some tweets:
absolutely nothing in Sept jobs report that will dissuade RBA from a November rate cut. Indeed, December also likely if u/rate above 5.5%
- @AsiaAentry (Glenn Maguire)
Job numbers offer something for everyone. In Qld, jobless up 1pp since April. Record number of west ozs in work, topping 1.3m for first time
- @swrightwestoz (Shane Wright)
Qld unemployment rate from 5.3% to 6.3% in just 4 months! All job losses nationally accounted for by drop in employment in QLD
- @TheKouk (Stephen Koukoulas)


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz28x6id9YY

  • #53,619
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:13pm Oct 10, 2012 6:13pm
here is more ..

12.04pm: Here's more economists trying to make sense of today's employment numbers, which has seen a surprisingly large rise in the number of jobs created accompanied by a larger than expected jump in the jobless rate:
RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong:

 

  1. It's the unemployment rate that best captures the underlying health of the labour market, it's broken out of this 5 to 5.3 per cent range, which it's been in for some time. At 5.4 per cent it's the highest since the early part of 2010.
  2. Part of it is the higher participation, but what's really driving it is the rise in unemployed persons in the month, and that's consistent with a reasonably soft labour market, and the leads are pointing to further softness consistent with the waning in growth momentum.

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CBA chief economist Michael Blythe:

 

  1. It doesn't make the story any clearer, with a decent rise in employment, but unemployment up as well. The overall impression when we smooth all these trends out is it's still a pretty soft labour market.
  2. It's still a case of easing bias here. The Reserve Bank still expects unemployment to rise. They obviously interpret the labour market now as soft as they've said.
  3. Given some of the global concerns that are still playing out the risks still point to lower rates. We think we'll see another move (down) in November."

Citi head of economy Paul Brennan

 

  1. It's broadly consistent with what we were thinking that last month's figures understated the unemployment rate. It's good there has been an increase in employment, but the reality is that it's not enough to keep unemployment steady.
  2. It's all pretty consistent with the fact the economy has slowed a bit, below potential growth, and that's affecting in a higher unemployment rate.
  3. The expectation is it will rise a bit further yet before the interest rate cuts kick in.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz28x7iGMNT

  • #53,620
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:14pm Oct 10, 2012 6:14pm
Quoting bogus
Nice I'm purely a chartist. Interesting hearing about the fundamentals. Short e/y and e/u as well.
Of course that's pure speculation on my part by watching the charts movement. Without hard data not possible to quantify but since AUD declined, E/A spiked +500 Pips and now the reverse.
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