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AUD/USD

  • #53,561
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:01pm Oct 10, 2012 7:01pm
Quoting sidhujag
aaahhh it all makes sense now
Dont start going down the age discrimnation path on me now... ive been trading and studying forex & equities since 16...
none the less... still learning
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,562
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:01pm Oct 10, 2012 7:01pm
Quoting bguguen
HERE you go...

BTW QE and Lowering in interest rates are the SAME because in effect they are monetary policy which increases money supply in effect...

THis is the post you talked about increased money supply would strengthen currency, which it DOES according to economics 101, BUT it takes 3 months time, and during that 3 MONTHS time... something called Speculation Money is DEVALUING the currency FIRST...
China QE and AUD lowering interest rates are 2 different things... we already went over this and I'll say it again you cannot casually relate its effects to AUD's lower rates. You are assuming based on your preschool economics but I obviously didn't mean the same thing. China QE = more money for AUD to play with = higher AUD.

China QE = good for China stocks = good for AUD.

China QE = soft landing = strong AUD.

What don't you get? The debate wasn't really a debate if you still dont get what I said in the last 10 posts lol.

BTW im beginning to wonder about you... how do you hold a graduate degree for both econ and finance at the age of 20? You a boy wonder? Doogie howser? BTW we all know how he turned out lol
  • #53,563
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:04pm Oct 10, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting bguguen
Dont start going down the age discrimnation path on me now... ive been trading and studying forex & equities since 16...
I already said you may be a good trader but lol the BUT you didnt get.. there are other qualities to human behaviour for which you may need to revise... but you may not and your path maybe a good one still... so either way gluck on it.
  • #53,564
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:06pm Oct 10, 2012 7:06pm
current time : 11:06am Sydney Time


24mins to go,
  • #53,565
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:07pm Oct 10, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting sidhujag
China QE and AUD lowering interest rates are 2 different things... we already went over this and I'll say it again you cannot casually relate its effects to AUD's lower rates. You are assuming based on your preschool economics but I obviously didn't mean the same thing. China QE = more money for AUD to play with = higher AUD.

China QE = good for China stocks = good for AUD.

China QE = soft landing = strong AUD.

What don't you get? The debate wasn't really a debate if you still dont get what I said in the last 10 posts lol.
Dude... China QE = Weaker Yuan = Incresed Chinese Exports....
Increased Chinese Exports = Increase Export Competition with Australia = Australia Growth being Lowered (as they are dependent on exports) = Australia Lowering Interest Rate = Lowered interest Rate = Lowered Currency, Lowered Currency = Increase in Export = Exportation equilibrium between China and Australia Restored.

It has always been an export war between China and Australia.... i mean seriously... Wtever Australia is exporting to China (gas, iron etc etc) China has abundant supplies of by themselves.... in fact China doesnt need Australia at all....
Only reason why China's been demanding those exports form Australia is because the Australian Dollar was Cheaper back then... making their Export attractive EVEN to China.... but now we can see China moving their economy to a domestic driven growth means Australia's gona lose china as a partner to export to.... especially when the Australian dollar has been gaining since 2000.... now China demands less of Australia's Export... ITs all connected buddy...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,566
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:11pm Oct 10, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting HelloOz
current time : 11:06am Sydney Time


24mins to go,
*Sigh* can we fast forward to 1 min lol
  • #53,567
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:13pm Oct 10, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting sidhujag
I would argue that the correlation between a strong australian economy because of China boost would be greater than a weaker yen as a cause for the stimilus.

The Yen if you want to go that route is also in a highly speculative mode right now due to BOJ threat and large funds selling because retailers and other specs are shorting it... we know the stop hunt will end when retailers are finally dead, but the yen isn't in any hurry as of right now... last time I checked its at an alltime high?
No no no not yen.... i meant Yuan... i keep typing it wrong because of the same Chinese Word...

Both the Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen are written the same in Chinese... and i get confused all the time...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,568
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:14pm Oct 10, 2012 7:14pm
Quoting bguguen
Dude... China QE = Weaker Yuan = Incresed Chinese Exports....
Increased Chinese Exports = Increase Export Competition with Australia = Australia Growth being Lowered (as they are dependent on exports) = Australia Lowering Interest Rate = Lowered interest Rate = Lowered Currency, Lowered Currency = Increase in Export = Exportation equilibrium between China and Australia Restored.

It has always been an export war between China and Australia.... i mean seriously... Wtever Australia is exporting to China (gas, iron etc etc) China has abundant supplies...
Yuan is not freely floating... the effect of this is less than the effect of Australia stocks rising because of correlation to the Chinese index. I'm confident that China easing is good for AUD dude, go try to convince someone else.
  • #53,569
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:15pm Oct 10, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting sidhujag
Yuan is not freely floating... the effect of this is less than the effect of Australia stocks rising because of correlation to the Chinese index. I'm confident that China easing is good for AUD dude, go try to convince someone else.
Though Yuan is not free floating, Yuan is adjusted on a daily basis to imitate a good enogh a free floating currency, also Be VERY Careful...
there are 2 Chinese currencies... One called the CNY being the Typical currency of china, and teh CNH, CNH and CNY are both RMB, but the benefit of CNH is that CNH is allowed to be traded Freely in Hong Kong.... so theres a huge speculation market in Hong Kong JUST to buy RMB at a cheaper rate...
im strongly confident that China easing is a signal that AUD will have to play catchup in easing.... thats why they lowered interest rates anyways. so their currency can stay competitive as they are pressured by china.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,570
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:17pm Oct 10, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting bguguen
im strongly confident that China easing is a signal that AUD will have to play catchup in easing....
i am with u,Aud is simply too strong and that really hurts e economy in e long run!
  • #53,571
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:18pm Oct 10, 2012 7:18pm
guys 15 mins left for the employment data regarding AUD..what do u think where will it take aud/usd to up or down ?
  • #53,572
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:19pm Oct 10, 2012 7:19pm
Quoting bguguen
im strongly confident that China easing is a signal that AUD will have to play catchup in easing....
AUD easing monetary policy won't happen that quick, they just did. Atleast a quarter. Like you said specs are right away while banks and funds take up to 3 months. The effect of this I believe is to drive price to a point where it will make sense to take profit. SM usually doesn't like to sell without distributing or on a peak somewhere. Since we only had one rate cut, it might be ok for now. China easing also shows strength in helping the economy to get out of the hard landing case, so it will positively effect commodity currencies because they supply China with material.
  • #53,573
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:19pm Oct 10, 2012 7:19pm
Quoting Brocklesnar
guys 15 mins left for the employment data regarding AUD..what do u think where will it take aud/usd to up or down ?
We cant know for sure until AFTER the data release, so i would recommend to stay out.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,574
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:21pm Oct 10, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting Brocklesnar
guys 15 mins left for the employment data regarding AUD..what do u think where will it take aud/usd to up or down ?

I believe UP then down for NY... thats just a guess though...should probably wait and get in on a retrace.
  • #53,575
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:21pm Oct 10, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting sidhujag
AUD easing monetary policy won't happen that quick, they just did. Atleast a quarter. Like you said specs are right away while banks and funds take up to 3 months. The effect of this I believe is to drive price to a point where it will make sense to take profit. SM usually doesn't like to sell without distributing or on a peak somewhere. Since we only had one rate cut, it might be ok for now. China easing also shows strength in helping the economy to get out of the hard landing case, so it will positively effect commodity currencies because they...
problem is you do realize by easing, china's currency is weakened hence less purchase of Australian Exports, unless Australia Weakens their currency too... and thats what Australia's been doing...
And please dont tell me the Yuan is not a free floating currency, they its not free floating, it IS adjusted on a daily basis... so a Yuan depreciates on the next day after QE
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,576
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:22pm Oct 10, 2012 7:22pm
Quoting Brocklesnar
guys 15 mins left for the employment data regarding AUD..what do u think where will it take aud/usd to up or down ?

Most likely it will take the downward trend
  • #53,577
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:25pm Oct 10, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting bguguen
problem is you do realize by easing, china's currency is weakened hence less purchase of Australian Exports, unless Australia Weakens their currency too... and thats what Australia's been doing...

Yes but not by much because again its not freely floating. That's the whole point of having a communist/socialist party. It's why they are where they are and also why their bubble will crash one day too.

You also forget to look at the case where money managers decide that its stilla good buy for now because China is easing (backing up the longs with QE)... so there is no way the economy will crash. If it crashes AUD is usually the first to go because its a commodity currency (commodity crashes usually are bigger because of the larger bubbles they create).

So a positive interest rate is still there... and where else would you put you rmoney right now besides NY equities? What if ES isn't ready to get to all time highs yet?
  • #53,578
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:26pm Oct 10, 2012 7:26pm
Gentlemen, start your engines.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,579
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:29pm Oct 10, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting dab
If employment rate is unchanged at 5.1% then given forecast is for 5.3% (FF forecast) AUDUSD would go up as it's better than expected. If it meets forecast 5.3% then likely to have lower impact (stay in current range) or continue some downwards pressure as it is confirmation of bad news.

Providing the Participation Rate doesn't suffer a heavy fall below 65.0 %
  • #53,580
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:29pm Oct 10, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting sidhujag
Yes but not by much because again its not freely floating. That's the whole point of having a communist/socialist party. It's why they are where they are and also why their bubble will crash one day too.

You also forget to look at the case where money managers decide that its stilla good buy for now because China is easing (backing up the longs with QE)... so there is no way the economy will crash. If it crashes AUD is usually the first to go because its a commodity currency (commodity crashes usually are bigger because of the larger bubbles they...
i guess all i can say now is we agree to disagree each other.... because personally i dont see us reaching a conclusion and lets look at the Unemployment coming out instead....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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