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  • #53,541
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:00pm Oct 10, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
I completely agree, when looking at Weekly we have been in a down trend since it peaked July 24th 2011.
& others might say we've been in an uptrend since the low of Oct 2011. Based on frequency of your posts I'd say that for you and I there have been several uptrends and several downtrends since then. Trend depends on timeframe.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,542
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:03pm Oct 10, 2012 6:03pm
Quoting HelloOz
let say if unemployment is unchanged at 5.1%,
what would happen to audusd?


and 5.3%?
If employment rate is unchanged at 5.1% then given forecast is for 5.3% (FF forecast) AUDUSD would go up as it's better than expected. If it meets forecast 5.3% then likely to have lower impact (stay in current range) or continue some downwards pressure as it is confirmation of bad news.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,543
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:05pm Oct 10, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting bguguen
You are very wrong dude.... when we talk about Hot Money flow we are talking immediate Money movements on a daily basis for 3 whole months , each day worthing of 3 trillion USD int he currency market... ITS A HUGE amount of money dude....
DO not get mixed up.... sooo for that Interest rate drop in October 2nd to take effect the TYPICAL way... wont happen until January.... where demand for AUD starts picking up again.... but by January.... AUDUSD might be down to the bottom of the range in 0.95

If it were that easy we would all be billionaire's... market is firstly fwd looking... what have you done for me lately... second it is run short term (even on daily) by speculation, stop hunting etc... its obvious that lowering interest rates will sway big funds away... which is what they want... the AUD is too high... they can't compete.

You are trying to read about economics from the 70's when the contrast between economics now and anytime from the last 10 years is black and white. China is communist firstly so the same rules wouldn't apply. Once they print wouldn't you think that money would go to AUS increasing china's IMPORTS? Isn't that what they have been doing? I know here in north america they are trying to buy up as many commodities as they can. Once there is surpluss money, im sure this is where it is going. The only exports they have been doing is the cheap labour of goods that are owned by foreign entities. Printing money would have NO effect on them, thus not really helping exports.

Helping AUS imports = > AUD.. that is why I say that China QE is good for AUD... and that is probably why there is a retracement going on.

Funny that I didnt major in economics at all.. I'm a software engineer yet I seem to grasp the concepts which seem fairly intuitive more than you. Sometimes when your trained in a subject, it helps to step back and look at the obvious and not try to follow the rules that have been engraved in your head from school/training. When you do this, you become a trend setter instead of a follower.
  • #53,544
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:05pm Oct 10, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting sidhujag
The yuan can be dropped out of the equation as it is not free floating. Yes I said the top will come once rates are dropped and that has happened... however there is no alternative...and market is fwd looking so I don't think a top is there. SM didn't even get a chance to distribute yet. When secondary demand comes in like you say... then there should be a prop up until speculation of the next rate cut (which usually happens after a quarter atleast).

[b]Since this is a first rate cut in a long time... you really think that means a continual drop...
When you combine enough bad economic data coming out of Australia, you just cant help but to short this bitch out and Short on Pullbacks

THE Only reason why we stopped last time at 1.02 back in June-August was becasue ITS SUMMER periods mean low liquidity not enough to make the drive down strong enough
but i wouldnt say so at this time of year.... if 1.02 breaks this thing is gona fall hard.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,545
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:07pm Oct 10, 2012 6:07pm
Quoting sidhujag
If it were that easy we would all be billionaire's... market is firstly fwd looking... what have you done for me lately... second it is run short term (even on daily) by speculation, stop hunting etc... its obvious that lowering interest rates will sway big funds away... which is what they want... the AUD is too high... they can't compete.

You are trying to read about economics from the 70's when the contrast between economics now and anytime from the last 10 years is black and white. China is communist firstly so the same rules wouldn't...
China hasnt been communist since Chairman Deng opened up their economy since his reign buddy... if China was communist they wouldn't even be engaged in international trade, Its been Socialist Economy since the 90s!
Their currency is Semi-Floating and i know this because im From Hong Kong and we can trade the RMB freely in Hong Kong.
They are only making their economy look like an Communism economy through their exchange rate fixes but so does Western Countries who manipulate their currencies...
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Is_China_c...ialist_country

If you call China Communists, then so are the Swiss... with Swiss Pegging their currency to the EURO keeping it fixed.... are the Swiss Communists??
Shees buddy use your brain!!
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,546
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:10pm Oct 10, 2012 6:10pm
Quoting bguguen
When you combine enough bad economic data coming out of Australia, you just cant help but to short this bitch out and Short on Pullbacks

THE Only reason why we stopped last time at 1.02 back in June-August was becasue ITS SUMMER periods mean low liquidity not enough to make the drive down strong enough
but i wouldnt say so at this time of year.... if 1.02 breaks this thing is gona fall hard.
I wouldn't say the only reason, QE3 speculation at the time might have had something to do with it....
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,547
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:11pm Oct 10, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting bguguen
China hasnt been communist since Chairman Deng opened up their economy since his reign buddy... if China was communist they wouldn't even be engaged in international trade

If you call China Communists, then so are the Swiss... with Swiss Pegging their currency to the EURO keeping it fixed.... are the Swiss Communists??
Shees buddy use your brain!!
That's the only way they are capable of acheiving any kind of world status... you really think if they were a democracy they would be where they are??? open your eyes. Wake up do whatever but you need to realize the obvious.

Have you been there? Its a third world country outside of the capitals.
  • #53,548
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:11pm Oct 10, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting dab
I wouldn't say the only reason, QE3 speculation at the time might have had something to do with it....
That too.. thanks for adding in, yes QE3 speculations also kept it up
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,549
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:15pm Oct 10, 2012 6:15pm
Quoting sidhujag
That's the only way they are capable of acheiving any kind of world status... you really think if they were a democracy they would be where they are??? open your eyes. Wake up do whatever but you need to realize the obvious.

Have you been there? Its a third world country outside of the capitals.
I have been there... i LIVE IN HONG KONG and i go up to China with my father ever now and then for business deals, since my father doesnt speak mandarin, i am the way he speaks to the chinese since ive been brought up in hong kong and learned chinese as my first language.

CHINA doesnt give a shit about villages dude.... MAJORITY of the POPULATION are in CITIES anyways.... so dont talk to me about Places Outside Capitals being a third world country when you can say the same applies to Deserts....

So is Dubai a third worl country? since anywhere outside of abu dabi's gona look pretty much like a third world country, hell its a fucking desert for all i care...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,550
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:15pm Oct 10, 2012 6:15pm
Quoting bguguen
That too.. thanks for adding in, yes QE3 speculations also kept it up
Im sure you can trade its just that there are always other sides to the story.. that's what I'm trying to hint at.

Your cases for it going down are not outweighing cases for it to go up from here by too much... if it were it would be tanking, its not.
  • #53,551
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:17pm Oct 10, 2012 6:17pm
Quoting bguguen
I have been there... i LIVE IN HONG KONG and i go up to China with my father ever now and then for business deals, since my father doesnt speak mandarin, i am the way he speaks to the chinese since ive been brought up in hong kong and learned chinese as my first language.

CHINA doesnt give a shit about villages dude.... MAJORITY of the POPULATION are in CITIES anyways.... so dont talk to me about Places Outside Capitals being a third world country when you can say the same applies to Deserts....

So is Dubai a third worl country? since anywhere...
Dubai is done, it was hype. Their real estate is dropping by > 40% in the next few years. It was a favourable place based on climate because of weather... and oil obviously. If you have enough money and you can do whatever youw ant, why not go to a large open place and start your own?
  • #53,552
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:19pm Oct 10, 2012 6:19pm
Quoting sidhujag
Dubai is done, it was hype. Their real estate is dropping by > 40% in the next few years. It was a favourable place based on climate because of weather... and oil obviously. If you have enough money and you can do whatever youw ant, why not go to a large open place and start your own?
Sadly true but once dubai's financial sector picks up it will outperform those of the europeans and the americans.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,553
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:21pm Oct 10, 2012 6:21pm
Quoting bguguen
Sadly true but once dubai's financial sector picks up it will outperform those of the europeans and the americans.
I highly doubt it. Oil is not allowed to be over $100.
  • #53,554
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:41pm Oct 10, 2012 6:41pm
Lets all pretend that economics is science with Empirical evidence to substantiate claims. BG you will learn like I did what they teach you in THEORY does not apply in PRACTICE. When I used to work for an Ibank what they showed us was much different and better than what was in the textbooks. You will see that economics is not an exact science nor could it predicte the latest crash or the next one coming and the one after that.
I know your going off to a bank soon and you will see the world as it truly is non quantifiable over the long term



If we break lower the next retrace on the HI/LO of last year is at 1.0033 and the higher end is 1.0432
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  • #53,555
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:48pm Oct 10, 2012 6:48pm
Quoting jplazard
Lets all pretend that economics is science with Empirical evidence to substantiate claims. BG you will learn like I did what they teach you in THEORY does not apply in PRACTICE. When I used to work for an Ibank what they showed us was much different and better than what was in the textbooks. You will see that economics is not an exact science nor could it predicte the latest crash or the next one coming and the one after that.
I know your going off to a bank soon and you will see the world as it truly is non quantifiable over the long term...
DUDE WTF.... I AM THE ONE who said INTEREST RATE THEORY doesnt apply to practice...
its Sidhu whos quoting saying that Lowerd interest rate increases supply fo the currency which would lead to increased demand to the cheap currency, hence currency strength... THATS THE BOG STANDARD THEORY from the BOOK Sidhu's quoted....
But he failed to understand in PRACTICAL it doesnt work like he said because 1. theres a time lag between the interest rate adjustments and the Actual effect of the adjustments hitting the economy. (Actual effect being Sidhujag's theory)
2. Theres Something called Speculationary Money which LEAVES the economy when interest rate falls as an Immediate Effect which NOT MANY people know about and its not overly stressed in the books.

if anything, This post you posted to me should've been directed towards Sidhujag instead of me in support of my views simply because LOWERED INTEREST RATES DOESNT PROVIDE IMMEDIATE CURRENCY STRENGTH.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,556
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:54pm Oct 10, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting bguguen
DUDE WTF.... I AM THE ONE who said INTEREST RATE THEORY doesnt apply to practice...
its Sidhu whos quoting saying that Lowerd interest rate increases supply fo the currency which would lead to increased demand to the cheap currency, hence currency strength... THATS THE BOG STANDARD THEORY from the BOOK Sidhu's quoted....
But he failed to understand in PRACTICAL it doesnt work like he said because 1. theres a time lag between the interest rate adjustments and the Actual effect of the adjustments hitting the economy. (Actual effect being...
Lol this is getting fun, can you show me the quote where I said that?
  • #53,557
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:55pm Oct 10, 2012 6:55pm
Quoting dab
& others might say we've been in an uptrend since the low of Oct 2011. Based on frequency of your posts I'd say that for you and I there have been several uptrends and several downtrends since then. Trend depends on timeframe.
Yes I agree with this. I trade mainly on the D1 chart so I definitely was riding the ups and down since the beginning of this year.

Always different opinions and perspectives, that's what creates the market.
  • #53,558
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:56pm Oct 10, 2012 6:56pm
Quoting sidhujag
Lol this is getting fun, can you show me the quote where I said that?
HERE you go...

BTW QE and Lowering in interest rates are the SAME because in effect they are monetary policy which increases money supply in effect...

THis is the post you talked about increased money supply would strengthen currency, which it DOES according to economics 101, BUT it takes 3 months time, and during that 3 MONTHS time... something called Speculation Money is DEVALUING the currency FIRST...
Quoting sidhujag
China eases = cheaper money - communist state = more money for exporters (AUD)

more money for exporters = boost in confidence for exporter.

NZD food inflation already at 3 month lows... Retracement happens now, coincidence? Lows - 50 pips could be a good S/L
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,559
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:56pm Oct 10, 2012 6:56pm
Sorry i did not read all the post you guys were going back and forth on. i will restate in general and not to individuals. Lets pretend Economics is an exact science and that it shows empirical evidence
  • #53,560
  • Oct 10, 2012 6:58pm Oct 10, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting bguguen
Dude.... i am 20 and classiness takes time to acquire so im forgiven if i lack classiness or modesty....

besides... if i were to pass you off as irrelevant after im regarding you as an enemy of mine, i would've put you in ignore list if i pass you as irrelevant....

the fact i havent done so is simply because i appreciate the debate we had dude...
aaahhh it all makes sense now
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