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AUD/USD

  • #53,521
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:08pm Oct 10, 2012 5:08pm
Numbers comes out far worse than expected I will be selling more for the next level move to 1.0050.
  • #53,522
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:12pm Oct 10, 2012 5:12pm
B.. much of it depends on the data... If its neutral than I think we close the week around 1.0210

But we should crack the 1.0150 before then and see the 1.0099/1.0125 for a bounce

I agree with jp though... Very bad data can accelerate the current risk off sentiment and I have 1.0033 as the major gatekeeper to the .96 after the 1.099/1.0125 gives way
  • #53,523
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:12pm Oct 10, 2012 5:12pm
let say if unemployment is unchanged at 5.1%,
what would happen to audusd?


and 5.3%?


Quoting jplazard
Numbers comes out far worse than expected I will be selling more for the next level move to 1.0050.
  • #53,524
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:17pm Oct 10, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Look at GBP, EUR, NZD, CAD, Oil, Gold, Dow, S&P, they are all heading down. Typical "Risk Off" mode.

Why would AUD be any different? Some are moving down faster than others but it looks to me (Daily Chart) that we have more room to go. Much more room...

What do you mean by hold? Where is the "support" you are referring to?
Meaning if your theory of hard landing is false and that theory holds.
  • #53,525
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:18pm Oct 10, 2012 5:18pm
I believe you can sell on a rise going into NY... NY afternoon support was broken on all ladies.

I would TP there and buy a low for a fast rise up, using a fairly tight SL incase S&P decides to go into full selloff mode.
  • #53,526
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:22pm Oct 10, 2012 5:22pm
Quoting sidhujag
I believe you can sell on a rise going into NY... NY afternoon support was broken on all ladies.

I would TP there and buy a low for a fast rise up, using a fairly tight SL incase S&P decides to go into full selloff mode.
THis is the problem mate.... i DONT TRADE retracements.... if the Trend is Down i will only look to LOAD shorts on Retracements and never enter a Long or never try to Catch a Retracements, because Retracement Moves are often the WORST R:R trades you can get....
so if i get the chance to see 1.0250 i will be shorting since there is there the Downwards Trendline is at..
Longing a retracement in a Downwards Trend is simply Suicidal, NOT my liking.... Unless it breaks the trend and forms a reversal pattern, but when a reversal patter forms, plenty of time to reverse into long... but right now I WILL NOT LONG ANYWHERE BELOW 1.0250/1.03.
End of story.

BTW for new traders, the reason why Trying to catch a retracement is the worst R:R trade you can get is because when ur in a downtrend, you have HIGHER chanes of Creating Lower Lows as oppose to creating Higher Highs.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,527
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:26pm Oct 10, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting bguguen
i dont give a fuck about spelling your name wrong buddy.... but my analysis is sound! yours wasn't end of story.....
not to sound like a jerk but don't piss me off... kinda nervous with the data..... because the DAMN Unemployment number has to come out with the employment change.... pisses me off... i think ill need to explain AFTER the Data what is likely gona happen cuz id like to see the actions 15 minutes before and atleast a full hour of the action before i can tell wts going on.
if your nervous abotu the data you should get out and wait for the reaction and get in with a good R/R.. otherwise stay out... isn't that the kind of advice you just gave to someone else?

About my analysis I did say that its very possible that that top is there... but what I meant today by top in place was this short retrace's top was not in place I believe. I saw strength coming in around 150 and price tried to make a low prior to CHina (hence the buy the China dip that had you confused). Did you get around to reading that link that someone posted about the easing buddy?

Anyways I'm hoping for a short squeeze
  • #53,528
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:28pm Oct 10, 2012 5:28pm
Quoting bguguen
THis is the problem mate.... i DONT TRADE retracements.... if the Trend is Down i will only look to LOAD shorts on Retracements and never enter a Long or never try to Catch a Retracements, because Retracement Moves are often the WORST R:R trades you can get....
so if i get the chance to see 1.0250 i will be shorting since there is there the Downwards Trendline is at..
Longing a retracement in a Downwards Trend is simply Suicidal, NOT my liking.... Unless it breaks the trend and forms a reversal pattern, but when a reversal patter forms, plenty...
I see strength and strength and weakness as weakness.. until game changing news comes out and takes out the lows decisively its still strength from here. Today NY support was broken so bearish bias unless strong bulls come out to play. You will know after news and during LO.
  • #53,529
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:29pm Oct 10, 2012 5:29pm
Quoting sidhujag
if your nervous abotu the data you should get out and wait for the reaction and get in with a good R/R.. otherwise stay out... isn't that the kind of advice you just gave to someone else?

About my analysis I did say that its very possible that that top is there... but what I meant today by top in place was this short retrace's top was not in place I believe. I saw strength coming in around 150 and price tried to make a low prior to CHina (hence the buy the China dip that had you confused). Did you get around to reading that link that someone...
Yes i read about the link of China Easing... but IF CHINA EASES its bad news for the Aussie because They will also have to ease, in the form of Lowering Interest Rates....

Economics 101, when an economy looks to monetary policy for Easing... PRINTING MONEY has the SAME EFFECT as LOWERING interest rates.
THey BOTH DEVALUES the CURRENCY while Increasing Supply of the CURRENCY
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,530
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:31pm Oct 10, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting sidhujag
I see strength and strength and weakness as weakness.. until game changing news comes out and takes out the lows decisively its still strength from here. Today NY support was broken so bearish bias unless strong bulls come out to play. You will know after news and during LO.
even if thats the case... i have a Larger sized Pending Short at 1.0290
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,531
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:32pm Oct 10, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting bguguen
Yes i read about the link of China Easing... but IF CHINA EASES its bad news for the Aussie because They will also have to ease, in the form of Lowering Interest Rates....

Economics 101, when an economy looks to monetary policy for Easing... PRINTING MONEY has the SAME EFFECT as LOWERING interest rates.
THey BOTH DEVALUES the CURRENCY while Increasing Supply of the CURRENCY

China eases = cheaper money - communist state = more money for exporters (AUD)

more money for exporters = boost in confidence for exporter.

NZD food inflation already at 3 month lows... Retracement happens now, coincidence? Lows - 50 pips could be a good S/L
  • #53,532
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:34pm Oct 10, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting bguguen
even if thats the case... i have a Larger sized Pending Short at 1.0290
Aright... I can give you exact numbers after it settles... looks like some volume will come in judging by the current PA.
  • #53,533
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:38pm Oct 10, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting bguguen
Yes i read about the link of China Easing... but IF CHINA EASES its bad news for the Aussie because They will also have to ease, in the form of Lowering Interest Rates....

Economics 101, when an economy looks to monetary policy for Easing... PRINTING MONEY has the SAME EFFECT as LOWERING interest rates.
THey BOTH DEVALUES the CURRENCY while Increasing Supply of the CURRENCY
The Yuan is a free floating currency? Since when?
  • #53,534
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:41pm Oct 10, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting sidhujag
China eases = cheaper money - communist state = more money for exporters (AUD)

more money for exporters = boost in confidence for exporter.

NZD food inflation already at 3 month lows... Retracement happens now, coincidence? Lows - 50 pips could be a good S/L
That is the Bogstandard Economics theory.... Lowered Interest Rate Would mean Cheaper money and would mean Increased Demand fo the Yuan and it should mean Increased Supply of Money for Exporters.... Unfortunately THIS EFFECT only happens AFTER 3 months, you do know that a Decrease or increase in interest rates takes 3 months in order for the effect to be seen??
otherwise the Immediate Effect is Hot Money/Speculation Money... When Interest Rate is decreased, HUGE ammounts of Investment funds are Drawn away because its not so beneficial to keep their currency in a place with Lowerd interest rate or lower returns.
SOOOOO when INTERST RATE DROPS... THE IMMEDIATE effect is a DROP in currency due to all the Hot money leaving the country... then 3 months later when the Currency has dropped enough... Real money Demand shall be seen but theres a LONG LONG way to go for real demand baby...

Learn Your economics buddy
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,535
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:42pm Oct 10, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting sidhujag
The Yuan is a free floating currency? Since when?
The Yuan is a semi floating currency buddy.... unlike 20 years ago where they fix prices up and down ever month, now it happens on a daily basis thanks to the American's Push for a Free Floating Yuan.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,536
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:51pm Oct 10, 2012 5:51pm
are the expected data from aud bad or going to be a fairly positive one?
  • #53,537
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:51pm Oct 10, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting bguguen
The Yuan is a semi floating currency buddy.... unlike 20 years ago where they fix prices up and down ever month, now it happens on a daily basis thanks to the American's Push for a Free Floating Yuan.
So it wouldn't really have that much of an effect on interest rates as you might think then. Incentive is for that money to go out to use instead of being parked. Once in circulation is "Should" spur growth. If it doesn't thats where the problems start, either way should create a bubble effect.
  • #53,538
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:54pm Oct 10, 2012 5:54pm
hold on to your butts, AUD data is gonna be a roller coaster
  • #53,539
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:56pm Oct 10, 2012 5:56pm
Quoting bguguen
That is the Bogstandard Economics theory.... Lowered Interest Rate Would mean Cheaper money and would mean Increased Demand fo the Yuan and it should mean Increased Supply of Money for Exporters.... Unfortunately THIS EFFECT only happens AFTER 3 months, you do know that a Decrease or increase in interest rates takes 3 months in order for the effect to be seen??
otherwise the Immediate Effect is Hot Money/Speculation Money... When Interest Rate is decreased, HUGE ammounts of Investment funds are Drawn away because its not so beneficial to keep their...
The yuan can be dropped out of the equation as it is not free floating. Yes I said the top will come once rates are dropped and that has happened... however there is no alternative...and market is fwd looking so I don't think a top is there. SM didn't even get a chance to distribute yet. When secondary demand comes in like you say... then there should be a prop up until speculation of the next rate cut (which usually happens after a quarter atleast).

Since this is a first rate cut in a long time... you really think that means a continual drop until the next cut? You really must be dense to think that. Even a child can see that coming lol.
  • #53,540
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:57pm Oct 10, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting sidhujag
So it wouldn't really have that much of an effect on interest rates as you might think then. Incentive is for that money to go out to use instead of being parked. Once in circulation is "Should" spur growth. If it doesn't thats where the problems start, either way should create a bubble effect.
You are very wrong dude.... when we talk about Hot Money flow we are talking immediate Money movements on a daily basis for 3 whole months , each day worthing of 3 trillion USD int he currency market... ITS A HUGE amount of money dude....
DO not get mixed up.... sooo for that Interest rate drop in October 2nd to take effect the TYPICAL way... wont happen until January.... where demand for AUD starts picking up again.... but by January.... AUDUSD might be down to the bottom of the range in 0.95
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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