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AUD/USD

  • #53,481
  • Oct 10, 2012 10:30am Oct 10, 2012 10:30am
Quoting bguguen
i go away for a couple hour and it seems like it got them damn bulls attention.... like i said... as long as AUDUSD is under 1.03 it WONT go up to 1.08 okay?!
now stop quoting articles about Goldman Sachs talking about long of the century and idiot members are posting comment on that news article with stupid comments like oh 1.10 soon im like WTF are they on??

I like your sarcastic sense of humor! LOL
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #53,482
  • Oct 10, 2012 10:36am Oct 10, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Pair-me-up
I like your sarcastic sense of humor! LOL
im actually being "serious" there... jk...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,483
  • Oct 10, 2012 10:57am Oct 10, 2012 10:57am
Quoting bguguen
as long as AUDUSD is under 1.03 it WONT go up to 1.08 okay?!
thats my favorite quote in this thread
  • #53,484
  • Oct 10, 2012 10:59am Oct 10, 2012 10:59am
my analysis is as long as this sucker is in a downward trend it wont go up
  • #53,485
  • Oct 10, 2012 11:02am Oct 10, 2012 11:02am
Quoting domino
my analysis is as long as this sucker is in a downward trend it wont go up
But when it stops going down , I fear the only direction left is for it to go up.
  • #53,486
  • Oct 10, 2012 11:05am Oct 10, 2012 11:05am
there is strength dont know how high but a top isnt in place. Prob until rba meeting.
  • #53,487
  • Oct 10, 2012 11:26am Oct 10, 2012 11:26am
this is where i see this pair going
-thick blue showing hs and right shoulder forming
-channeling with 1.035x as support and nowbouncing to utl -thuck red lines
-strong resistance at 1.032x-1.0340 with sevaral pivot points in the past and also utl of thin red tl.


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Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #53,488
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:15pm Oct 10, 2012 12:15pm
At what price do bulls turn into bears and vice versa?
I AM a bear and if we exceed 1.05 the argument is invalid. But bulls have been bullish for this RBA cut and most likely will be after the next RBA cut at what price do bulls shift to bears?
  • #53,489
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:27pm Oct 10, 2012 12:27pm
Quoting jplazard
At what price do bulls turn into bears and vice versa?
But bulls have been bullish for this RBA cut and ...

when is a rate cut bullish? you're telling me that a rate cut "the time when the economy is hurting and inflation rate differentials are narrowing leading to rate differentials narrowing causing a shrinking currency vrs stronger currencies in addition to lowering the payments for bullish investments" is a bullish sign?

maybe for the equities markets due to shrinking currency in relation but not for the currency
  • #53,490
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:31pm Oct 10, 2012 12:31pm
I think you misread my sentence and that was my fault. I am talking about the bulls pre Oct rate cut still bullish post cut. And i mentioned that the next rate cut coming shortly will still see bullish behavior. I was wondering from both sides based on your analysis at what price do ppl admit they are wrong or that the argument makes no sense now.

For my its 1.05
  • #53,491
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:39pm Oct 10, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting jplazard
I think you misread my sentence and that was my fault. I am talking about the bulls pre Oct rate cut still bullish post cut. And i mentioned that the next rate cut coming shortly will still see bullish behavior. I was wondering from both sides based on your analysis at what price do ppl admit they are wrong or that the argument makes no sense now.

For my its 1.05
in that case judging from history when the first rate cut comes it is always followed by atleast 2 more maybe not back to back but cuts will come until the inflation rate differential reverses <- the major cause for the cuts or raises in the first place.

This may only apply pressure to stall the currency from growth while the economy rebuilds and the economic climate returns to normality.

In that case still interest rates are so wide that it would hurt big investors to sit and wait for the fall which means it will prob just fluxuate around the balanced price discovery point.

I wouldn't sell because of this .. I would wait on the sidelines or sell something with a more narrow interest rate differential like eur for example
  • #53,492
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:45pm Oct 10, 2012 12:45pm
Domino,

well put I respect that answer and may I ask are you a carry/trend trader or other?
  • #53,493
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:46pm Oct 10, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting domino
in that case judging from history when the first rate cut comes it is always followed by atleast 2 more maybe not back to back but cuts will come until the inflation rate differential reverses <- the major cause for the cuts or raises in the first place.

This may only apply pressure to stall the currency from growth while the economy rebuilds and the economic climate returns to normality.

In that case still interest rates are so wide that it would hurt big investors to sit and wait for the fall which means it will prob just fluxuate around...
Thats why i have an argument to watch out for October 16, the Monetary policy minute will give us hint if we are gona see a rate cut in november 6th
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,494
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:51pm Oct 10, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting jplazard
Domino,

well put I respect that answer and may I ask are you a carry/trend trader or other?
long term orderflow with emphasis on extreme efficiency and low cost .. some call it piking some call it carry trend..
  • #53,495
  • Oct 10, 2012 12:55pm Oct 10, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting bguguen
Thats why i have an argument to watch out for October 16, the Monetary policy minute will give us hint if we are gona see a rate cut in november 6th
I never trust those things honestly those guys just talk alot of shit
  • #53,496
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:07pm Oct 10, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting domino
I never trust those things honestly those guys just talk alot of shit
Sadly domino.... the Market reacts to shit they say so i would suggest you to keep an eye on it.

At the moment, i have a pending short on AUDUSD up at 1.0290 that is IF it gets there... and i hope it does cuz i will be loading up heavy on shorts.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,497
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:21pm Oct 10, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting bguguen
Sadly domino.... the Market reacts to shit they say so i would suggest you to keep an eye on it.

At the moment, i have a pending short on AUDUSD up at 1.0290 that is IF it gets there... and i hope it does cuz i will be loading up heavy on shorts.
true but im on to big of a timeframe for it to matter anyways I try to trade up with the big money
  • #53,498
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:27pm Oct 10, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting domino
in that case judging from history when the first rate cut comes it is always followed by atleast 2 more maybe not back to back but cuts will come until the inflation rate differential reverses <- the major cause for the cuts or raises in the first place.

This may only apply pressure to stall the currency from growth while the economy rebuilds and the economic climate returns to normality.

In that case still interest rates are so wide that it would hurt big investors to sit and wait for the fall which means it will prob just fluxuate around...
In the grand scheme of things I believe the current differential is inconsequential of where price is going in the short term. The market is so fwd looking that when differential does narrow do you really think you will be able to pick a long term top? By then ppl will be crying because they lost the opportunity and then scream conspiracy. The tops get set around the time when rates "stop" widening and begin contracting. Regardless of CODB the exchange rate equilibrium will begin to hover lower and lower due to speculation of the next cut. By the time they are down 2 cuts it will be at parity and by the time USD begins to increase rates it will be way under. Imagine having a positive carry for selling AUD lol that is when it is time to start buying.

Market always teases by giving a bone... go ahead... carry trade earn "Free" money... the only reason the carry exists is because of the speculation of the next move like a game of chess. As soon as the unwind happens, and its usually when you least expect it.. the carry traders who are not diligent will lose their shirts.

I'm sure the unwind will happen but not without some crazy divergence as we had atleast 3-4 years after the crash where smart money got in they are probably not going to get out unless its a top.
  • #53,499
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:41pm Oct 10, 2012 1:41pm
AUD will go down to 1.0045 in a short time
  • #53,500
  • Oct 10, 2012 1:47pm Oct 10, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting sidhujag
In the grand scheme of things I believe the current differential is inconsequential of where price is going in the short term. The market is so fwd looking that when differential does narrow do you really think you will be able to pick a long term top?
Im not a top or bottom picker I don't focus on it. I focus on the climate and trade management.
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By then ppl will be crying because they lost the opportunity and then scream conspiracy.
Always do
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The tops get set around the time when rates "stop" widening and begin contracting. Regardless of CODB the exchange rate equilibrium will begin to hover lower and lower due to speculation of the next cut.
actually they are set around the time the inflation rate differential stops widening months before the rates stop widening due to the fact inflation rate differential is the effect of the currency price vrs all other currency prices and the ability to conduct business at those prices.
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By the time they are down 2 cuts it will be at parity and by the time USD begins to increase rates it will be way under. Imagine having a positive carry for selling AUD lol that is when it is time to start buying.
unfortunately that will not happen soon because of debt ratio divergences if you track back the rates of the USD you'll notice the downward oscillation from about the 70's to now will decreasing highs in the interest rates because of the fact we need cheap money to feed our unsustainable debt practices.

you'll notice australia at 72% and US at around 133% respectively meaning australia has more room for higher frequency of dynamics in the interest rate differential cycle while the united states does not.
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Market always teases by giving a bone... go ahead... carry trade earn "Free" money... the only reason the carry exists is because of the speculation of the next move like a game of chess. As soon as the unwind happens, and its usually when you least expect it.. the carry traders who are not diligent will lose their shirts.
you misunderstand my position.. some people call what I do carry trading I do not.. carry traders will buy and make interest even when floating at losses. I buy small chucks and protect every position as I move further in profit only using the carry to recover my initial position risks and pay back costs.
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I'm sure the unwind will happen but not without some crazy divergence as we had atleast 3-4 years after the crash where smart money got in they are probably not going to get out unless its a top.
we are not in the same economic climate that was a unique experience where all inflation rates where dropping at the same time creating imbalances in positions that could continue to drop inflation rates while those who had already cycled down didnt have room creating this crash.. where if this one does happen it will only be minor

thank you tho I enjoy carrying on a debate with people who know what they are talking about.. gives me a break from the same type of nonsense on the daily basis
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