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  • #2,141
  • Oct 9, 2012 10:43am Oct 9, 2012 10:43am
Stopped out - 2%
  • #2,142
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:41pm Oct 9, 2012 3:41pm
EUUD 4 hr.. note current low .786.. and 2.618.. note trendlines collide.. note 3 weekly pivots come at this point.. have taken long possie.. short term view..
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  • #2,143
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:44pm Oct 9, 2012 3:44pm
4 hr USDX.. note at Pivot resistance.. note CCI and ADX.. turn down sharp
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  • #2,144
  • Edited 4:36pm Oct 9, 2012 4:32pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting danc
EUUD 4 hr.. note current low .786.. and 2.618.. note trendlines collide.. note 3 weekly pivots come at this point.. have taken long possie.. short term view..

This is a good entry. http://www.cool-smileys.com/images/65.gif I am long from 2868.

I placed my stop in the wrong place.... along with many others. Although the retracement to the .786 is deep, it is still a valid wave 2 while we are above 2804, and .786 has a familiar relationship to wave 2.

As I got in at the .618 area at 2907, my stop should not have been so heavily influenced by prior price action ( the range bottom sub 2980).

... in fact the move to and flash dip below the .786 smells of a stop hunt to clear out the weak longs, who like me all had their stop exactly where they would be hunted.....

The chart is constructive for farther upside until it is not. At this point it will take a break of 2804 to negate the best fitting wave count.

Any action below the .786 is not welcome, but does not negate the current count, it only violates common fib/wave relationships.
  • #2,145
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:57pm Oct 9, 2012 5:57pm
Good Night Traders,
We all got different views, different strategies, minds; so fascinating.
My look at the wave is a bit different, instead of ABC (correction) or 1-2 before wave 3, I got a reason to believe that we are in the middle of wave 3 South (The graph mentions another numbering unrelated, in some way, to Elliot). I could be wrong, that's why I have my SLs since yesterday in place.

Please read my full projection on this here.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5b_li8c1vt...+10-Oct-12.png
Full size

  • #2,146
  • Oct 9, 2012 7:50pm Oct 9, 2012 7:50pm
Quoting danc
4 hr USDX.. note at Pivot resistance.. note CCI and ADX.. turn down sharp
looking at that 2..and up against major R on top of DT channel......8,4 and 2 look like it can run higher....just mo

cci way into OB on the daily

All Ordinaries off a measly 1%...Dow a bit more (i hate that bitch but got some short there today) compared to NASDAQ100 down 4.5%
  • #2,147
  • Oct 9, 2012 8:39pm Oct 9, 2012 8:39pm
Shit pattern like a running triangle looks probable at the moment.
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  • #2,148
  • Oct 9, 2012 9:25pm Oct 9, 2012 9:25pm
Quoting roro53
looking at that 2..and up against major R on top of DT channel......8,4 and 2 look like it can run higher....just mo

cci way into OB on the daily

All Ordinaries off a measly 1%...Dow a bit more (i hate that bitch but got some short there today) compared to NASDAQ100 down 4.5%
Out of that minus 20..................................
  • #2,149
  • Oct 9, 2012 9:28pm Oct 9, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting Crassius
This is a good entry. http://www.cool-smileys.com/images/65.gif I am long from 2868.

I placed my stop in the wrong place.... along with many others. Although the retracement to the .786 is deep, it is still a valid wave 2 while we are above 2804, and .786 has a familiar relationship to wave 2.

As I got in at the .618 area at 2907, my stop should not have been so heavily influenced by prior price action ( the range bottom sub 2980).

... in fact the move to and flash...
.. i am watching..2750 ish or bit hier
  • #2,150
  • Oct 9, 2012 9:34pm Oct 9, 2012 9:34pm
4 hr bldy BEARish looking Hey??Actualy.. discount 2750.. the dogs are barking this.. I really have no idea were its going to go..
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  • #2,151
  • Oct 9, 2012 9:47pm Oct 9, 2012 9:47pm
Quoting danc
4 hr bldy BEARish looking Hey??Actualy.. discount 2750.. the dogs are barking this.. I really have no idea were its going to go..

me neither but AUS200 and Dow are really lagging all other indexes so shorted more AUS200 tonight 4485

stops over wick highs

not confident either way really

earnings are soft........no surprise
  • #2,152
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:19am Oct 10, 2012 7:19am
Quoting Crassius
I am long from 2868.

Stop to Break even....

If this bitch gets stopped out I have had it with this pair for a day or two.
  • #2,153
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:42am Oct 10, 2012 7:42am
Yea i am in 66 and 80..USDX looks hard down at mo.. very tight stop.. long Dragon as well
  • #2,154
  • Edited 6:22pm Oct 10, 2012 4:33pm | Edited 6:22pm
Quoting Crassius
Stop to Break even....

If this bitch gets stopped out I have had it with this pair for a day or two.

Love the way S&P does this shit during the most illiquid time of the day.... not the first time this year.

Spain downgrade takes me out Breakeven....

We held up very nicely during the S&P sell off today, unlike yesterday when we were its bitch. Underscores just how strong the support from 2825 to 2800 really is.

That was probably a great entry that just got nicked by news flow. or maybe not... its all about managing risk.....
  • #2,155
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:08pm Oct 10, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting Crassius
Love the way S&P does this shit during the most illiquid time of the day.... not the first time this year.

Spain downgrade takes me out Breakeven....

We held up very nicely during the S&P sell off today, unlike yesterday when we were its bitch. Underscores just how strong the support from 2825 to 2800 really is.

That was probably a great entry that just got nicked by news flow. or maybe not... its all about managing risk.....
MM.. Yeah i reckon.. as u 2825.. 2800 is strong area.. i have week 50% and mth PPX at 30/25.. will watch with interest..picture..4 hr
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  • #2,156
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:32pm Oct 10, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting Crassius
Love the way S&P does this shit during the most illiquid time of the day.... not the first time this year.

Spain downgrade takes me out Breakeven....

We held up very nicely during the S&P sell off today, unlike yesterday when we were its bitch. Underscores just how strong the support from 2825 to 2800 really is.

That was probably a great entry that just got nicked by news flow. or maybe not... its all about managing risk.....
GOOD Observation
  • #2,157
  • Edited 7:47pm Oct 10, 2012 7:44pm | Edited 7:47pm
I posted this pic yesterday and still see it as the most likely future direction..... sideways.... in a corrective grind.

Elliotticians call it a leading diagonal triangle, traditional chartists will call it a wedge when it is fully formed. The deep retrace off the 10/5 high at 3070 is key to this interpretation and holds until the monthly opening low, 2803 which has very strong seasonality, and is protected by the 200 DMA holds.

It could also be different sideways pattern that lacks the two final swings.

The amplitude of the waves I've drawn in have meaning, but the time scale axis does not.

The 200 DMA and opening month low at 2803 are formidable support, both from a TA standpoint and actual past price action. Any time we even approach the 200 DMA ready buyers emerge in the low thirties, buying with stops below 2800... only a 35 to 40 pip risk.... maybe they even take off half on break below the 200 DMA, about 1/2 way from their entry lowering their risk even more.

Enough players are making that play to make the market unable to sell off to relieve upward momentum fatigue, therefor it consolidates a sideways pattern. Remember we didn't even retrace to the 38.2% fib on the whole rally near 2740.

At the same time as the pattern becomes more and more clear, short term top pickers come out in force and rallies continue to fail lower and lower. Upside potential diminishes each time, until we finally work ourselves into a wedge..... the breakout will give the true direction.... and likely the best trading opportunity for those patient enough to wait it out.

If 2803 breaks... that's another story... one with at least 2750/40 on the cover.

Not a very conducive environment for profits for people who look for real moves and not scalp inside minor (eye of the beholder) swings.
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  • #2,158
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:52pm Oct 10, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting danc
GOOD Observation
the FED has not cancelled QE Forever
  • #2,159
  • Oct 10, 2012 7:57pm Oct 10, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting roro53
the FED has not cancelled QE Forever
That's the second time this year that S&P has announced a Spanish downgrade while Globex is closed.... and no one can get out of their positions till it comes back up.

Last time they said they make announcement without any thought to markets...

Not saying there is a conspiracy, but if you are going to announce something that will have a market impact, why do it when a good portion of the nearly 24 hr market is closed?

I don't know why anyone pays any attention to these POS, they were the same ones that told Iceland mortgage backed securities were a solid investment, for example.
  • #2,160
  • Oct 10, 2012 10:17pm Oct 10, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting Crassius

The 200 DMA and opening month low at 2803 are formidable support, both from a TA standpoint and actual past price action. Any time we even approach the 200 DMA ready buyers emerge in the low thirties, buying with stops below 2800... only a 35 to 40 pip risk.... maybe they even take off half on break below the 200 DMA, about 1/2 way from their entry lowering their risk even more.

Enough players are making that play to make the market unable to sell off to relieve upward momentum fatigue...
Another very strong bounce off the 200 DMA....
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