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AUD/USD

  • #53,401
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:25pm Oct 9, 2012 12:25pm
Any1 still think Gold and AUD/USD are direct correlations need not look at a 20yr chart but just look at YTD and tell me you still believe the further Gold rises the AUD will follow. Don't believe the hype do your homework and most of all dont listn to cartoons(or the contrarian trade.
  • #53,402
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:28pm Oct 9, 2012 12:28pm
Under normal circumstances, the correlations are there but with the current economy outlook they go separate directions.
  • #53,403
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:34pm Oct 9, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting Ken A
Under normal circumstances, the correlations are there but with the current economy outlook they go separate directions.
hey Ken,

what's your view for Aud/usd?
I think trading Eur/aud is a safer trade this week...
also gbp/usd
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #53,404
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:39pm Oct 9, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting gnomoneey
hey Ken,

what's your view for Aud/usd?
I think trading Eur/aud is a safer trade this week...
also gbp/usd
Hey G,

AUD/USD could be ranging this week and I expect a retest not more than 38.2% 1.02711.

True, easier to trade EUR/AUD. All my longs got stopped out with 100 pips trailing. Not complaining here

Not sure about GBP because I don't follow the news.

Oh another pair worth watching EUR/TRY. I got stopped out with +800 PIPS with no effort at all
  • #53,405
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:45pm Oct 9, 2012 12:45pm
some strength coming in on AUD... look to buy aroudn the lows and hold
  • #53,406
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:49pm Oct 9, 2012 12:49pm
Dollar has been a champ right now and looks to trade in this range of 78.6-61.8% (79.431-80.46) and break above or below close on Daily signals a HS on the upside and on the downside it will continue with a new leg.

But right now as long as we are trading or consolidating above AUD/USD might be capped. Still looking for better shorts to add on the upside but I might have to take what I can get if we break 618 on dollar. Although, if AUD/USD does not break below Friday this looks like a Rounding bottom for a move upward into RBA Nov...No guess work here I will let the Dollar and AUD/USD fibs do the guessing

YTD WKLY


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #53,407
  • Oct 9, 2012 1:03pm Oct 9, 2012 1:03pm
I tend to agree with the upward movement by looking at how things are going. From latest lows to parity is only +100 pips so close yet so far. I am in the opinion we will see parity when Central Bank says so.
  • #53,408
  • Oct 9, 2012 1:04pm Oct 9, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting Ken A
Hey G,

AUD/USD could be ranging this week and I expect a retest not more than 38.2% 1.02711.

True, easier to trade EUR/AUD. All my longs got stopped out with 100 pips trailing. Not complaining here

Not sure about GBP because I don't follow the news.

Oh another pair worth watching EUR/TRY. I got stopped out with +800 PIPS with no effort at all
eur/try have not looked at all...will look now....
here's my chart for gbp/usd
inverse hs, right shoulder is forming -pink channel
-also ascending wedge utl resisted -aqua
-descending tl broken to downside from last week - red
-weekly stoch just beginning the descend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guinversehsw1.gif Size: 30 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #53,409
  • Oct 9, 2012 1:08pm Oct 9, 2012 1:08pm
Quoting gnomoneey
eur/try have not looked at all...will look now....
here's my chart for gbp/usd
inverse hs, right shoulder is forming -pink channel
-also ascending wedge utl resisted -aqua
-descending tl broken to downside from last week - red
-weekly stoch just beginning the descend
Attachment
Yeah I am watching many pairs including GBP though I don't know the reason for the drop. You have any idea?

Attached Image

  • #53,410
  • Oct 9, 2012 1:11pm Oct 9, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting Ken A
I tend to agree with the upward movement by looking at how things are going. From latest lows to parity is only +100 pips so close yet so far. I am in the opinion we will see parity when Central Bank says so.
everyone is in the race who can devalue their curencies the fastest.
usd
jpy
euro
gbp
and now au

who can win?

Jp,
i know you have some opinions about db.
just a suggestion sir, ignore if you dont like but please dont insult...we are all here to learn and make $$$$, stay cool brother...just my opinion and observation nothing against you and this thread....
if possible i would like to post here.


thanks,
G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #53,411
  • Oct 9, 2012 1:13pm Oct 9, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting Ken A
Yeah I am watching many pairs including GBP though I don't know the reason for the drop. You have any idea?

Attachment

no idea except london close and usa on full force from holiday....
otherwise i only look at charts..

took out my position on ea and gu early this afternoon for about +320pips this week....
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #53,412
  • Edited 2:19pm Oct 9, 2012 1:55pm | Edited 2:19pm
I have no personal problem with DB. I do have a couple professional problems with his approach and his interaction with others.

A, He tells others whos EW drawings are different than his that their not correct or gives them what he thinks should be the right way to draw ABC. Dolbece drew one of the best ABC drawings before this RBA cut that showed EXACTLY what was going to happen and DB shut it down because it did not fit with his BULL argument. Only to have the move occur in Dolbece way.

B. he gives comments like 'i will bookmark this statement' ect when he wants to prove someone wrong on their calls. Yet again when he is wrong like August/October he will not come out and say I was incorrect and great job to those who made money on this recent move. No he just redraws ABC like no one notices and continues on touting the bull argument.

We are all wrong from time to time (Me dollar Long a couple months back whacked for 50K+ and a little over a month ago shorting AUD/USD to early whacked for 20k+ BUT THIS IS THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE between traders who want to help others from those who just do it for the intellectual circle jerk from their peers, THEY ADMIT MISTAKES.

When I am proven wrong I admit it and say great jobs to those who showed the other side of the argument and ask their insight of why they took that stance. Not i think your wrong or the EW is wrong IMOP stuff.

I won't go off the schoolyard talk of if you don't like it just ignore it, I will not mock him on a daily basis or talk down at him but everytime he comes out and talks down to other traders (jokingly or not) I will remind those that this is the guy who still believes AUD 1.10+ and that he thinks he knows how the big boys work (unlike him some of us here actually worked for an Ibank and can tell you their mentality) and he draws perfect EW waves.

'No one here has anything to prove, but don't mistake the passive IMOP as a get out of jail free card if your wrong. Its one thing to be wrong and learn from it (which i respect) its another to be wrong and then tell others who were right that they are not correct in MY OWN OPINION


I digress....
  • #53,413
  • Oct 9, 2012 1:58pm Oct 9, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting jplazard
I have no personal problem with DB. I do have a couple professional problems with his approach and his interaction with others.

A, He tells others whos EW drawings are different that his that their not correct or gives them what he thinks should be the right way to draw ABC. Dolbece drew one of the best ABC drawings before this RBA cut that showed EXACTLY what was going to happen and DB shut it down because it did not fit with his BULL argument. Only to have the move occur in Dolbece way.

B. he gives comments like 'i will bookmark this statement'...

hi steven...

so what do u think about Aussie right now?
  • #53,414
  • Oct 9, 2012 2:03pm Oct 9, 2012 2:03pm
drew this the other night if we break 1.0275 and close on Daily which right now looks like a inverted HS 20d 1H we will be trading higher possible levels as outlined in the chart.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post6079832
  • #53,415
  • Oct 9, 2012 2:33pm Oct 9, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting jplazard
drew this the other night if we break 1.0275 and close on Daily which right now looks like a inverted HS 20d 1H we will be trading higher possible levels as outlined in the chart.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post6079832
Aussie jobs news tomorrow, have a feeling it won't be pretty. Looking for another leg down on aussie based on fundamentals.
  • #53,416
  • Oct 9, 2012 2:34pm Oct 9, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting jplazard
I have no personal problem with DB. I do have a couple professional problems with his approach and his interaction with others.

A, He tells others whos EW drawings are different than his that their not correct or gives them what he thinks should be the right way to draw ABC. Dolbece drew one of the best ABC drawings before this RBA cut that showed EXACTLY what was going to happen and DB shut it down because it did not fit with his BULL argument. Only to have the move occur in Dolbece way.

B. he gives comments like 'i will bookmark this statement'...

i do remember when he did that and cant remember who it was. i found it disturbing but to his each own.
when i post i want to know other views that traders are seeing. right or wrong on time will tell. and yes making mistakes or not its a place where we all can learn and discuss our views. this job is quite lonely as it is and having these cyber friends can take out some of the boredom we get while doing this. enjoy and please dont take anything personal as we are all trying to learn.

btw thanks for your reply, good luck and many many green pips to all

G
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #53,417
  • Oct 9, 2012 2:40pm Oct 9, 2012 2:40pm
could be right but if we didnt follow through on Retail jobs needs to be really bad for us to break the Sunday low. I will have a sell stop just in case to add
  • #53,418
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:04pm Oct 9, 2012 3:04pm
In D1 time
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  • #53,419
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:14pm Oct 9, 2012 5:14pm
BG,
whats your thoughts on today's open?
  • #53,420
  • Oct 9, 2012 7:10pm Oct 9, 2012 7:10pm
Hi Oz, i just woke up.... anyways
from the looks of it... i can see todaywe opened the day at near daily pivot and we are already testing this 1.0180 level, if we have an H4 confirmed breakout and close.... look to short back at 1.02 levels but ONLY if we have a confirmed breakout and close BELOW 1.0180
So for the best R;R trade.... after you get the confirmation of a break below 1.0180, place a pending Sell Limit order at 1.02 with SL at 1.0230 and TP open, this thing can go far 1.0104 is the next fibo target to aim for.

Trade invalidated if 1.0230 gives way
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