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  • #10,601
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:13am Oct 9, 2012 11:13am
Quoting chiknthief
The 1.0150 barrier in AUD/USD might be in jeopardy today as risk aversion ramps up. But the barrier to watch is the sound barrier with a Red Bull stunt diver planning to jump from 22 miles above the earth and freefall faster than the speed of sound. It looks like the launch is going to [...] http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/10/09/audusd-barrier-at-risk-oh-yeah-and-the-sound-barrier-too/
Based on daily ADX, I'd say the Aussie baby is heading to 1.03xxx today. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,602
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:20am Oct 9, 2012 11:20am
If it breaks todays high, U may be right about 10300. I don't see it happening though. So the 'million dollar question' : Will it break ???
  • #10,603
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:24am Oct 9, 2012 11:24am
Quoting DaddyBear
ChikBear, the wind has changed direction since Monday and yet you are still talking about going south.

I know a lot of people are holding very bearish view currently including many "experts". However, I still keep my EWP view intact.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1349317469
One "expert"'s blog mentioned that he shorted the Aussie at 1.0160. TP sub-parity and SL 1.028xx. The reason was because 1.0160 was a major support and broken Sunday night.

My question about such view are below:

1. Shorting an instrument just because a major support was broken made me wonder if this was a right way to do. Seems to me, he believed he was right on the money.

2. Placing a SL 120 pips away, it meant the guy knew there is a big chance that the Aussie may reach 1.028xx. If so, why not just wait until that level then short.

But, he has got a lot of companies at this point. We shall see.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,604
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:29am Oct 9, 2012 11:29am
Quoting chiknthief
If it breaks todays high, U may be right about 10300. I don't see it happening though. So the 'million dollar question' : Will it break ???
Yes, it will break. When I say today, I mean until 12 AM EST not US session. But, more than likely, it will be above daily high before then. I don't mind it happens after US session. The positive swap is always a nice money to take.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,605
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:32am Oct 9, 2012 11:32am
My view : commercials extremely net short right now = D-O-W-N !!! When commercials change from bear zone to bull zone, I'll be turning bullish myself and start looking for the buy trigger. Until then, I remain in the bear camp.
  • #10,606
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:36am Oct 9, 2012 11:36am
COMMERCIALS - the GOLDEN rule
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,607
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:39am Oct 9, 2012 11:39am
Quoting DaddyBear
Although it gaped down at the open, the Daily DMIM went down more. This is a signal of a divergence. It may not be a reversal or a rebound. But it means something.

Last time I got a D+ from the Greek teacher at ADX school.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1346168614
This was posted on Sunday night. Seems to me, DMIM began to drop even when the price was still high. This divergence may bring a strong rebound/reversal. It depends on if the "indicator channel" will be broken during these two days. If so, all bears will be slaughtered. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,608
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:40am Oct 9, 2012 11:40am
Quoting chiknthief
Hey DT. Gold is holding above the line and way above the ichimoku cloud. Still bullish !!!
If you are bullish on Gold, why can you be bearish on the Aussie?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,609
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:40am Oct 9, 2012 11:40am
Quoting DaddyBear
One "expert"'s blog mentioned that he shorted the Aussie at 1.0160. TP sub-parity and SL 1.028xx. The reason was because 1.0160 was a major support and broken Sunday night.

My question about such view are below:

1. Shorting an instrument just because a major support was broken made me wonder if this was a right way to do. Seems to me, he believed he was right on the money.

2. Placing a SL 120 pips away, it meant the guy knew there is a big chance that the Aussie may reach 1.028xx. If so, why not just wait until that level then short....
I looked up 4H, Daily and Weekly. I'm gonna just say it with confidence that we won't go below 1.015 FOR TODAY. Weekly points down, but both Daily and 4H can't go any lower. I would have to agree with DB that we may actually go up. I'm not certain about 1.03. Perhaps a test, yes. If we close any higher, then all the bears can forget about parity. If it goes back down to test lows, we may just consolidate around here for a while.

Assuming we take a double bottom at 1.014x, we should be well back on our way up again.

It was a double bottom yesterday with a bullish engulfing. Now its forming an inside bar. If its bullish tomorrow, we should see 1.028xx like DB said. So just be careful what you're doing before you long or short

Edit: Forgot to add. If we don't form double bottoms at 1.014x and we go lower and close lower, parity is a good possibility.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #10,610
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:47am Oct 9, 2012 11:47am
Quoting DaddyBear
If you are bullish on Gold, why can you be bearish on the Aussie?

Because the aussie IS NOT gold. They just travel together from time to time then the aussie gets off the train and goes elsewhere. Scared money jumps into gold - the ultimate safe haven.
  • #10,611
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:47am Oct 9, 2012 11:47am
Quoting aeternum
I looked up 4H, Daily and Weekly. I'm gonna just say it with confidence that we won't go below 1.015 FOR TODAY. Weekly points down, but both Daily and 4H can't go any lower. I would have to agree with DB that we may actually go up. I'm not certain about 1.03. Perhaps a test, yes. If we close any higher, then all the bears can forget about parity. If it goes back down to test lows, we may just consolidate around here for a while.

Assuming we take a double bottom at 1.014x, we should be well back on our way up again.

It was a double bottom yesterday...
Good point. My view is that the Aussie is heading toward the UTL which is close to 1.034xx. The probability of breaking the UTL is extremely high due to the current EW pattern.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,612
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:49am Oct 9, 2012 11:49am
Quoting aeternum
I looked up 4H, Daily and Weekly. I'm gonna just say it with confidence that we won't go below 1.015 FOR TODAY. Weekly points down, but both Daily and 4H can't go any lower. I would have to agree with DB that we may actually go up. I'm not certain about 1.03. Perhaps a test, yes. If we close any higher, then all the bears can forget about parity. If it goes back down to test lows, we may just consolidate around here for a while.

Assuming we take a double bottom at 1.014x, we should be well back on our way up again.

It was a double bottom yesterday...

Corrections always happen in BEAR MARKETS !!!
  • #10,613
  • Edited 12:05pm Oct 9, 2012 11:53am | Edited 12:05pm
Right now, the US big boys are having their lunches. This is the time for the market to consolidate. Expect to see a thrust after they are back to their trading desks. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,614
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:54am Oct 9, 2012 11:54am
Weekly ADX is pointing UP in a downmove. An indication the downtrend is STRONG.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,615
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:55am Oct 9, 2012 11:55am
Quoting DaddyBear
Right now, the US big boys are having their lunches. This is the time for the market to consolidate. Expect to see a thrust after they are back to their trading desk. IMO
If some comes back early then it will start to move.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,616
  • Oct 9, 2012 11:58am Oct 9, 2012 11:58am
Quoting chiknthief
Weekly ADX is pointing UP in a downmove. An indication the downtrend is STRONG.
Although I got a D+ from my Greek teacher at ADX school, I guess you have got a F.

When ADX points up and closes to a peak whether it's high or low, it means the downtrend is coming to an end. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,617
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:02pm Oct 9, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting DaddyBear
If some comes back early then it will start to move.
Now, it starts to move again.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,618
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:10pm Oct 9, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Although I got a D+ from my Greek teacher at ADX school, I guess you have got a F.

When ADX points up and closes to a peak whether it's high or low, it means the downtrend is coming to an end. IMO

Not real sure about your interpretation here, but when the ADX dips below 20 and then rises it is supporting the current trend. The current trend is down. When ADX rises to the 50-60 zone and turns down, I look for a trend change I can actually trade. Or whenever it falls below 20, I also look for a trend change you can actually trade. I only pay attention to readings below 20 and above 50.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,619
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:16pm Oct 9, 2012 12:16pm
I just drew some fib levels on my chart and I spotted a possible Bearish butterfly. Lows now could either be 1.01591 or 1.01922. But seeing as there are bars below 1.01922, I am looking to 1.01591. This follows by a 1.03878 push up before a full-fledged sale.

I'm not sure if I'm right here.

Edit: It would make a bit of sense because of oversold Stoch and negative MACD. I don't see ADX, so I'm not sure. Pretty sure I'll flunk my ADX test if I ever took one
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #10,620
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:29pm Oct 9, 2012 12:29pm
A smart bear is flying a kite to find out the wind direction. To him, a kite is better than anything else.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342530438
daddybearforex. com
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