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The Really Useless Thread

  • #116,841
  • Oct 9, 2012 4:52am Oct 9, 2012 4:52am
Quoting gatorinla
i got 2802/84 as bulls last stand. for 3131...... with a possible bs move to suck some in toward 2987 once more after a break of 2802.. but 2768 candle is lit with or w/o 2987 and 3131... and below 2802 lights 2432.. and cancels 3131.. although 2987 once more is normal. after 2802 break at some point before 2432
Agree in some levels. I have 1.291x instead of your 1.280x (the current swing in play) for the same 1.313x with extension 1.326x in weekly. In my books, TA wise 1st the leg up to complete the move before retrace not only have priority but will be a lot healthier and easier for trading.

To the other side, I have your same 1.280x/1x to open KEY untested last break out 1.268x. A break below, looks far for now will open your +/- level 1.243x (My level is 1.245x but is the same area we are talking about) in one go without stops in air.....

Up swing to complete the weekly range and down swing to retrace the M/W break out is my focus ....I will only jump on a break on panic/risk if the downside move goes first ....Let see how it pans out.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #116,842
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:03am Oct 9, 2012 5:03am
Quoting chazzle
CAD strength easing a little ... maybe time for a small p/b in these pairs
took GCAD long
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  • #116,843
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:18am Oct 9, 2012 5:18am
3 things are a must for a strong currency. regardless of what is said by any politician or any intent to stay in a certain currency by any central bank.

the currency has to have a demand. a large demand created by a want or need for others to buy a product. the demand is compared to the same using the cross currency.

the 3 pillars are commodities and/or banking and/or manufacturing. demand needs to be equal to keep the pair stable.

you are only as strong as the weakest link. the ecb has put on a good show to strengthen its banks perception. to do this it required printing, removing the financial advantage. any st gain, reduces exports, and demand. the banking sucks and saving it hurts manufacturing... there are little commodities in the ecb zone...
inside the ecb zone are countries... the ones w/o these any of these 3 pillars will always be weak.. the ones with the pillars will support the ones w/o..until the link breaks.. its just the way it is.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,844
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:28am Oct 9, 2012 5:28am
Quoting gatorinla
3 things are a must for a strong currency. regardless of what is said by any politician or any intent to stay in a certain currency by any central bank.

the currency has to have a demand. a large demand created by a want or need for others to buy a product. the demand is compared to the same using the cross currency.

the 3 pillars are commodities and/or banking and/or manufacturing. demand needs to be equal to keep the pair stable.

you are only as strong as the weakest link. the ecb has put on a good show to strengthen its banks...
Is all about size and importance. Despite the BRICs and etc, the world pie is still pretty much controlled by a few players.

Like it or not and even with all the crap in the europe (there is lots) is still the major trading partner in world as whole, major exporter, second main importer, over 350 mill people using it (more than the US) covering businesses in 17 countries that represent over 9 trillion euros just second behind the US...

In simple words, your comment are mostly true but there is no much alternative size and importance wise. China will be one but is a communist State and currency is controlled and not freely tradable worldwide, YEN well yes a bit but is not as global ...the rest (CHF, AUD, CAD, etc) they will barely cover a couple of days of trading (and even worst financial transactions) given the limited size of their economies and currencies ...so is all about size and importance ....as long as the pie of the world is distribute like this ...there is nothing to do but to have the euro as top currency ... will it change? maybe but there is no alternative for now...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #116,845
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:34am Oct 9, 2012 5:34am
Quoting sisse
Is all about size and importance. Despite the BRICs and etc, the world pie is still pretty much controlled by a few players.

Like it or not and even with all the crap in the europe (there is lots) is still the major trading partner in world as whole, major exporter, second main importer, over 350 mill people using it (more than the US) covering more than 17 countries that represent over 9 trillion euros just second behind the US...

In simple words, your comment are mostly true but there is no much alternative size and importance wise. China...
its comparably... its a slow process. i remember saying "standards of living" will go down. i think its safe to say it has. this is early in the game. the size of the country or amount of people dont matter.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,846
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:47am Oct 9, 2012 5:47am
Quoting gatorinla
its comparably... its a slow process. i remember saying "standards of living" will go down. i think its safe to say it has. this is early in the game. the size of the country or amount of people dont matter.
I agree with you in the concept but I disagree that you try to put the EZ as a "unique" case. Don't get me wrong the EZ debt crisis is a mess without discussion but for the rest except in Greece and Spain which are back to early euro economic levels, the picture is as good or blur as in the US, Japan or the UK.

In simple words, some Piigs had, have and will suffer for the same deep internal structural problems that come from generations...Greece been in a disaster is nothing new or nothing related with the Euro, they have done it every 25 years in the last century. Spain? only 30 years ago without the EU and the Euro they were more underdeveloped and poor than most of its former colonies in Latin America ....so nothing new.....as long as they don't fix their problems ...euro or no euro their standards of living will go down every economic cycle down.

What I mean is sure "standards of living" will go down" but it has gone down in all develop world !!!!! the same in the US, Japan and the UK. ...the point been we are recovering from the the biggest recession in the last 80 years across ...what you expect ...as you said this is early in the game ...let see what happens when the develop economies bounce back in a few years ...only then we can compare....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #116,847
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:57am Oct 9, 2012 5:57am
and JPY strength across the board ... and CJ sliding etc. etc..
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  • #116,848
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:02am Oct 9, 2012 6:02am
Quoting sisse
I agree with you in the concept but I disagree that you try to put the EZ as a "unique" case. Don't get me wrong the EZ debt crisis is a mess without discussion but for the rest except in Greece and Spain which are back to early euro economic levels, the picture is as good or blur as in the US, Japan or the UK.

In simple words, some Piigs had, have and will suffer for the same deep internal structural problems that come from generations...Greece been in a disaster is nothing new or nothing related with the Euro, they have done it every 25...
all was well in Germany as long as manufacturing was doing ok. now in the real world since domestic buying is slowing. it will be harder for the ecb to inflate the euro. it will be more reflective to exports then in the first decade. the new reality. this is closer to the real world. and that will amplify compared to the rest of the bricks or the u.s. that domestic demand was brought on by bs.. and now all that crap bought the last decade has to be paid for with interest. sure the u.s. is a like position internal. the difference is the u.s. will buy less luxury items like e vacations and beama's . they have dropped the prices a shitload since 2008..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,849
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:15am Oct 9, 2012 6:15am
Quoting gatorinla
all was well in Germany as long as manufacturing was doing ok. now in the real world since domestic buying is slowing. it will be harder for the ecb to inflate the euro. it will be more reflective to exports then in the first decade. the new reality. this is closer to the real world. and that will amplify compared to the rest of the bricks or the u.s. that domestic demand was brought on by bs.. and now all that crap bought the last decade has to be paid for with interest. sure the u.s. is a like position internal. the difference is the u.s. will...
I disagree with your view in Germany. Germany is not a banana republic that depends on devaluing the currency to artificially inflate public accounts ...It is a lot lot lot more than the fancy cars brands you see and prolly in the manufacturing sector even more solid than the US ...a German break up on the real economy will require a global catastrophe and the global implication will make look the last 4 year like a walk in the park...

Sorry, but Mercedes, Audi and Volkswagen are just the consumer brands you recognize but you are overlooking the other 90% of the industry and manufacturing for almost every advanced sector that makes Germany the number 1 (by far) in manufacturing in the develop world....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #116,850
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:18am Oct 9, 2012 6:18am
Quoting sisse
I disagree with your view in Germany. Germany is not a banana republic that depends on devaluing the currency to artificially inflate public accounts ...It is a lot lot lot more than the fancy cars brands you see and prolly in the manufacturing sector even more solid than the US ...a German break up on the real economy will require a global catastrophe and the global implication will make look the last 4 year like a walk in the park...

Sorry, but Mercedes, Audi and Volkswagen are just the consumer brands you recognize but you are overlooking...
lets take out Germany.. and simplify it.. its about supply verse demand. when demand drops, prices lower.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,851
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:23am Oct 9, 2012 6:23am
Quoting chazzle
took GCAD long
H4 just closed looks ok bbl
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  • #116,852
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:33am Oct 9, 2012 6:33am
Quoting gatorinla
lets take out Germany.. and simplify it.. its about supply verse demand. when demand drops, prices lower.
That's hard to call. The main markets for the EZ outside Germany is within the EU. Internal demand is not dropping any longer this year except in Greece and Spain (and Slovenia I think) but in general, most including the UK has bottomed.... In simple words the worst, demand side, seems to be over.

More importantly, this is Europe mate, the standard of living in general and the size of consumption is very high (in comparative terms with the rest of the world), this is not going to disappear in a few years. The median GDP per capita in the EU is around €25.000 (and if you exclude the new east european countries a lot higher even with Spain and Greece in the basket) ...that's a lot mate !!!, and lot of people...don't get me wrong this is not a 3rd world country with a few companies and rich people and the majority eating shit ...

Natural demand is so strong (and "rich") that will keep them afloat for at least a couple of generations, the other parts of demand that goes according the economic cycles has bottom except in Spain and Greece (that also they barely can go down more) ...so

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #116,853
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:44am Oct 9, 2012 6:44am
Quoting FibbinArchie
now gone 6 days without taking a loser, highly dangerous to start thinking i'm bullet proof...
how to tempt fate... dumb ass post of the week... the forex gods get pissed off when you get cocky...

have a good ny session...
  • #116,854
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:45am Oct 9, 2012 6:45am
Quoting sisse
That's hard to call. The main markets for the EZ outside Germany is within the EU. Internal demand is not dropping any longer this year except in Greece and Spain (and Slovenia I think) but in general, most including the UK has bottomed.... In simple words the worst, demand side, seems to be over.

More importantly, this is Europe mate, the standard of living in general and the size of consumption is very high (in comparative terms with the rest of the world), this is not going to disappear in a few years. The median GDP per...
summer is usually more stable.. the fall is near.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,855
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:48am Oct 9, 2012 6:48am
Quoting gatorinla
summer is usually more stable.. the fall is near.
.... isn't the 21st December 2012...thank god we still have a few swing left for trading ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #116,856
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:54am Oct 9, 2012 6:54am
morning. 2948 long
looking for investors . pm me
  • #116,857
  • Oct 9, 2012 6:59am Oct 9, 2012 6:59am
Quoting sisse
.... isn't the 21st December 2012...thank god we still have a few swing left for trading ...

sisse
merkle over there may get ugly. emotions at a high.. is there a rock shortage?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,858
  • Oct 9, 2012 7:04am Oct 9, 2012 7:04am
imf cuts global outlook makes aud s attractive at 0250.8. to target 0028. if weakness agrees.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,859
  • Oct 9, 2012 7:05am Oct 9, 2012 7:05am
Quoting gatorinla
merkle over there may get ugly. emotions at a high.. is there a rock shortage?
Yeap I am watching live ...angry mobs ...is always easier to blame the outsider rather than take the bull by its horns....

In any case, watchout for a joint "surprise" announcement (I wouldn't be surprise with some populism BS from the politicians) as the odds of Merkel saying something bully are none as long as she is in Athens...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #116,860
  • Oct 9, 2012 7:15am Oct 9, 2012 7:15am
Quoting sisse
Yeap I am watching live ...angry mobs ...is always easier to blame the outsider rather than take the bull by its horns....

In any case, watchout for a joint "surprise" announcement (I wouldn't be surprise with some populism BS from the politicians) as the odds of Merkel saying something bully are none as long as she is in Athens...

sisse
i heard 5k police.. i doubt if things got ugly all 5k would shoot.. the crowed is peaceful.. the ones at home listening are the ones that have to be monitored.. if those hundreds of thousands+ youth hit the streets..

the outsider is just as guilty.. they cheated also. they enabled the others to join.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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