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Extreme TMA System

  • #13,221
  • Oct 8, 2012 5:32am Oct 8, 2012 5:32am
Finally, D1 swung down and confirmed the end to its rally. (See http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post6072261)

Now that D1 is a fresh confirmation down, can sell rallies on lower charts.

H1 has even reached the bottom of its non-repainting TMA channel already.

Legs have a tendency to travel in a Fibonacci number of bars. H1's down move is now on bar 20 from the swing high. That means H4 is on bar 5. (Any light bulbs just come on?)

DrDave
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #13,222
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:21am Oct 8, 2012 7:21am
Quoting DrDave
Finally, D1 swung down and confirmed the end to its rally. (See http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post6072261)

Now that D1 is a fresh confirmation down, can sell rallies on lower charts.

H1 has even reached the bottom of its non-repainting TMA channel already.

Legs have a tendency to travel in a Fibonacci number of bars. H1's down move is now on bar 20 from the swing high. That means H4 is on bar 5. (Any light bulbs just come on?)

DrDave
Not Yet, waiting to sell Rallies.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,223
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:30am Oct 8, 2012 7:30am
Why not sell the rallies yet? M15 already had a good short on a rally. M30 had a very small rally that was also a good short entry. And now H1 is making its rally.

So what is holding you back? Not a good TMA set up?
Quoting bassramy
Not Yet, waiting to sell Rallies.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #13,224
  • Oct 8, 2012 8:37am Oct 8, 2012 8:37am
Quoting DrDave
Why not sell the rallies yet? M15 already had a good short on a rally. M30 had a very small rally that was also a good short entry. And now H1 is making its rally.

So what is holding you back? Not a good TMA set up?
PA being @ the lower H1 Band means that a bounce back up @ least to the Middle H1 band is due Targeting 1.2992 - 1.3000 Area if not to the Upper H1 band.

US is closed today so i expect to short tomorrow rather than today.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,225
  • Edited 9:47am Oct 8, 2012 9:29am | Edited 9:47am
You are correct that it is not yet time to sell the H1 rally; it has not topped out yet. But my point was, what about those lower charts that you missed?

And about 1.30 is indeed a resistance area as well as a 50% Fib retracement.

Of course when the London session closes, expect the EU to go to a crawl.
Quoting bassramy
PA being @ the lower H1 Band means that a bounce back up @ least to the Middle H1 band is due Targeting 1.2992 - 1.3000 Area if not to the Upper H1 band.


US is closed today so i expect to short tomorrow rather than today.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #13,226
  • Oct 8, 2012 11:24am Oct 8, 2012 11:24am
Quoting Tess1
What i mean is that if you consider last Thursday's bar which is higher than the previous 20th bar. According to your analogy, Friday's price was expected to go up but it came down. Or is it that i didn't get your analogy. If so kindly explain better. (AUDUSD D1)
It is not so simple mate. I said "when present bar is higher it is confirmation that channel is gonig up and vice versa" -> so, "the channel" not "the price"

It's not "magic" indi that show you: "buy" or "sell" signal. I would not call this indicator.. it is just a tool, that can help you imagine where will be TMA channel when all repaint is over and confirm it turn.

Greetings.
  • #13,227
  • Oct 8, 2012 11:33am Oct 8, 2012 11:33am
Quoting DrDave
You are correct that it is not yet time to sell the H1 rally; it has not topped out yet. But my point was, what about those lower charts that you missed?

And about 1.30 is indeed a resistance area as well as a 50% Fib retracement.

Of course when the London session closes, expect the EU to go to a crawl.
DD,

I really don't look @ the lower TF's, since i moved from M15 to H1 i didn't look back, I'm really focused on the H1 TF and I'm very comfortable with it, it gives me time to manage my other work while waiting for my trades to develop and release me from screen time, not to mention the higher success rate that i encountered on H1.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,228
  • Oct 8, 2012 12:12pm Oct 8, 2012 12:12pm
Ah, OK. That explains why you didn't take any short entries yet. I start shorting the M15, sometimes even M5, and try to take each rally that forms on the next bigger chart. Once the train passes the station, its too late to take any later entries on that chart any more. But you can jump on (or off to take some profits) at the next bigger station.

I don't expect to short the H1 today, because I don't anticipiate that the rally will end soon enough before the close of the London session.

I don't "focus" on any particluar time frame. In fact, I have what I term the "focus chart" that changes as the price action changes. Currently, my focus chart is D1, so that is why I look for the rallies on the lower charts to sell. If the cycling sequence progresses normally, W1 is next in line to become the focus chart.

DrDave
Quoting bassramy
DD,

I really don't look @ the lower TF's, since i moved from M15 to H1 i didn't look back, I'm really focused on the H1 TF and I'm very comfortable with it, it gives me time to manage my other work while waiting for my trades to develop and release me from screen time, not to mention the higher success rate that i encountered on H1.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #13,229
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:28am Oct 9, 2012 3:28am
Hi very good thread. my chart of usdchf 1D
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  • #13,230
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:33am Oct 9, 2012 3:33am
and usdchf 4h
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  • #13,231
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:39am Oct 9, 2012 3:39am
eur/usd 4h my look.
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  • #13,232
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:40am Oct 9, 2012 3:40am
Nice, but I think price will get closer to 0.97 before the big fall you show. I think your green up move to about 0.95 is just a first leg. I think there will be a pullback, and then continue up to around 0.97. Just my idea. You know Forex--anything can happen.
Quoting ixon
Hi very good thread. my chart of usdchf 1D
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #13,233
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:44am Oct 9, 2012 3:44am
Hey ixon, that is a nice chart. Ok, so we see your "look"; can we get some words on what you think will happen?
Quoting ixon
eur/usd 4h my look.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #13,234
  • Oct 9, 2012 4:08am Oct 9, 2012 4:08am
The Break and the retest, Silver.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,235
  • Oct 9, 2012 4:09am Oct 9, 2012 4:09am
if you look on weekly chart with fork we ar at resistance, for me eur/usd can go down. we need to look at the up chenel on dayli chart. sory for my english.
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  • #13,236
  • Oct 9, 2012 4:31am Oct 9, 2012 4:31am
I agree that the EU is heading down now. W1 needs to swing down, so D1 is going down to try to get things started. But D1 will then need to do a rally followed by a continuation down (unless this current down move is so strong that it is able to swing down W1, too.)

How many bars have closed on W1 up to that high since the low at about 1.204? I have 8, a Fib. number... And on D1, how many bars closed from the low at about 1.28 to the swing high? I have 5. a Fib. number... I think we're going down.

Quoting ixon
if you look on weekly chart with fork we ar at resistance, for me eur/usd can go down. we need to look at the up chenel on dayli chart. sory for my english.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #13,237
  • Oct 9, 2012 4:37am Oct 9, 2012 4:37am
GBPUSD

The GBPUSD lost 110 pips over Friday’s close today as the market continued to rotate lower on the back of the bearish momentum created by the pin bar reversal that we first discussed in our commentary from September 21st, signaling a major turning point in the previous uptrend. We can see there’s some support coming in around 1.5912, and then further below that there’s a key support level around 1.5775. Traders can continue to look for price action sell signals on any rotations back to resistance in this market. The previous support level near 1.6066 that was broke today can now be considered a near-term resistance level that we can watch for price action sell signals if the market rotates higher in the near-term.

Forex Trading Commentary by Nial Fuller
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,238
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:00am Oct 9, 2012 5:00am
Daily Currencies Charts.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #13,239
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:02am Oct 9, 2012 5:02am
Hi everyboy,

I'm trying to do this wonderful system in 15M. Right now I hesitate about setup conditions in EURUSD, outside 1H low bounds and upper TF ranging. Do you take this trade?


Thanks in advance
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  • #13,240
  • Oct 9, 2012 5:08am Oct 9, 2012 5:08am
S&P 500, CRUDE OIL, GOLD, US DOLLAR Report.
Commodities Continue to Look to Euro Debt Crisis Policy for Direction
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
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