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AUD/USD

  • #53,361
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:08pm Oct 8, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting terryjones
Short audusd at 1.0230? Any thoughts on that?

@ www.effex-live.blogspot.com
Personally I am waiting to open a Short position at .0243 (downward support of previous channel that acted as a resistance on the recent pullback). Earnings season is kicking off tomorrow with Alcoa; USD may rally big times if earnings no not meet expectation.
  • #53,362
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:10pm Oct 8, 2012 7:10pm
Better spots to short this is not one of them. Considering A. Volume is light and chop is warranted until London B. Short Covering still has not taken effect yet C. Iron ore/Miners/ASX are up quite a bit right now and risk is on today.

Better spots at 1.03 up to 1.0325
  • #53,363
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:11pm Oct 8, 2012 7:11pm
Expecting a retrace to 38.2.

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  • #53,364
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:11pm Oct 8, 2012 7:11pm
just out of Westpac


In view of Westpac, NZD/USD corrective bounce should be limited by 0.8265 today, eventually giving way to a resumption of the trend decline below 0.8150 ahead of 0.8100. According to the bank, AUD’s negative outlook on global sentiment can drag Kiwi with it. Meanwhile, AUD/USD corrective bounce should be capped by 1.0275 today, before resumption of downtrend to potential break below 1.0150. In 1-month, pair is expected lower to 1.0100.
  • #53,365
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:12pm Oct 8, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting terryjones
Short audusd at 1.0230? Any thoughts on that?

@ www.effex-live.blogspot.com
I'd advise against it. it bounced off the s/r daily and is now on the uptrend,

(Red lines are daily fib, yellow is s/r for pic)
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  • #53,366
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:42pm Oct 8, 2012 7:42pm
A chart
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,367
  • Edited 8:38pm Oct 8, 2012 8:27pm | Edited 8:38pm
Quoting katana144
I'd advise against it. it bounced off the s/r daily and is now on the uptrend,

(Red lines are daily fib, yellow is s/r for pic)
I'll be looking to short around 1.0330ish. with the RBA cutting rates a few days ago long term this thing has my short bias.
You should thank me, I take the other side of your winning trades.
  • #53,368
  • Oct 8, 2012 8:51pm Oct 8, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting mportt11
I'll be looking to short around 1.0330ish. with the RBA cutting rates a few days ago long term this thing has my short bias.
You would think. I didn't really have a bullish bias for this pair before they cut either. Problem is if equities/gold go up this pair will still go up regardless of the cut. But what do I know I'm just some speculator.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #53,369
  • Oct 8, 2012 8:52pm Oct 8, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting england33
You would think. I didn't really have a bullish bias for this pair before they cut either. Problem is if equities/gold go up this pair will still go up regardless of the cut.
well said
  • #53,370
  • Oct 8, 2012 8:55pm Oct 8, 2012 8:55pm
Day to day fluctuations are not my concern now as the selling is pretty much exhausted itself and breaking 1.0275 signals setups for future selling.
Even though I am still short at the moment pretty heavy I WILL double size once the next rate cut comes in to macro trade this to to parity and then to .97-.98 area

IF we get back to back cuts on Nov 5 than 1.0050 will be the next resistance and that will not hold for long. If the cut is delayed till December we could rally a bit more to 1.04-1.0435.

If December cut comes in than the move lower below parity has pretty much cemented itself as this would create bigger LH's LL's on Daily

No cuts in DECEMBER or for the rest of 2012 will see AUD/USD go back above 1.05 and higher

I will be a seller again at 1.0325 and Nov cut (if no cut I will hold off)

Leading up to December where I am really expecting a cut I will be shorting into December for the move lower heading into 2013 Q1 Q2.

I won't post as much because the daily moves going into Nov possible cut or Dec possible will not concern me and the selling looks to be over for now IF WE BREAK 1.0275 AND CLOSE ON DAILY.
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  • #53,371
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:02pm Oct 8, 2012 9:02pm
Quoting jplazard
Day to day fluctuations are not my concern now as the selling is pretty much exhausted itself and breaking 1.0275 signals setups for future selling.
Even though I am still short at the moment pretty heavy I WILL double size once the next rate cut comes in to macro trade this to to parity and then to .97-.98 area

IF we get back to back cuts on Nov 5 than 1.0050 will be the next resistance and that will not hold for long. If the cut is delayed till December we could rally a bit more to 1.04-1.0435.

If December cut comes in than the move lower below...
Nicely laid out plan with reasoning
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,372
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:18pm Oct 8, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting SnaveForex
well said
if the china factor comes into play more it would really bring this pair down. they were given a lower forcast but I didn't read into the details - but I don't believe their statistics are in any way accurate. if people only knew how fraudulent the Chinese economic figures are....
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #53,373
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:24pm Oct 8, 2012 9:24pm
This is an older article but I'm pretty sure all of it still pretty much applies..

Based in large part on Beijing’s low debt load, the Economist’s “wiggle-room index,” which ranks economies on their ability to afford stimulative measures, assigns a great rating to China. Of 27 emerging nations, only petroleum-blessed Saudi Arabia and Indonesia look stronger.

China does not have as urgent a need to bolster growth as other newly developing countries, the Economist suggests, and in any event it has lots of space to wiggle. “China’s ample room for easing supports the case for a soft rather than a hard landing of its economy,” the publication says.

All this sounds wonderful, but none of it correlates with the facts. The 16.3% calculation excludes Beijing’s “hidden liabilities.” Once you add them in, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio increases to somewhere between 90% and 160%. And if you believe Beijing has been overstating its GDP recently—it has, at least starting from the last quarter of last year—China’s ratio approximates Greece’s 164%.
Analysts, surprisingly, don’t seem to be concerned about Beijing’s debt, no matter how it is calculated. As Tom Holland of the South China Morning Post points out, the assumption is that China can grow its way out of this problem because it has always been able to do so in the past.

China’s economy, despite the Economist’s assessment, is already landing hard. January’s results were dismal—the economy looks like it may even have contracted last month—and there will not be much improvement until the summer, if then. If there is no marked uptick this year, Beijing faces difficult choices because, as the “ghost city” phenomenon indicates, there has been a gross misallocation of capital since the end of 2008.

What are Beijing’s choices? First, central government technocrats could force the banks to absorb losses. At first glance, it appears the banks could afford substantial write-offs. The industry’s non-performing loan ratio was 0.96% at the end of last year, down from an already unbelievable 1.14% at the end of 2010. Yet the central government will not force banks to write off large quantities of loans because the year-end 2011 ratio does not reflect the real state of bank balance sheets. The Ministry of Finance could again recapitalize the banks, but that may not be feasible. The central government has yet to clear all the bad loans from the big bailout at the end of the 1990s. China’s hidden liabilities include warehoused loans from that era, which Holland estimates amount to 7.5% of GDP.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonch...-off-its-debt/
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #53,374
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:26pm Oct 8, 2012 9:26pm
Quoting england33
You would think. I didn't really have a bullish bias for this pair before they cut either. Problem is if equities/gold go up this pair will still go up regardless of the cut. But what do I know I'm just some speculator.
Problem is AUDUSD is not dependent on gold, AUDUSD is dependent on Gas and Iron prices, and as long as China slows down... Australians will have a trouble meeting their production, and lets not forget Who is the biggest holder of Gold in the world... China...
so really all i see is that the Inflation in China is the ONLY Concern for AUDUSD bulls out there...
keep an eye out.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,375
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:30pm Oct 8, 2012 9:30pm
Quoting bguguen
Problem is AUDUSD is not dependent on gold, AUDUSD is dependent on Gas and Iron prices, and as long as China slows down... Australians will have a trouble meeting their production, and lets not forget Who is the biggest holder of Gold in the world... China...
so really all i see is that the Inflation in China is the ONLY Concern for AUDUSD bulls out there...
keep an eye out.
very good point.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #53,376
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:32pm Oct 8, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting england33
You would think. I didn't really have a bullish bias for this pair before they cut either. Problem is if equities/gold go up this pair will still go up regardless of the cut. But what do I know I'm just some speculator.
Yeah... I placed a small short around 1.0235 and closed it because I didn't like the way the PA was going. Will watch and wait until PA gets up around 1.0325-30 to look for a short opportunity. Prolly get bent over but thats what us speculator's have to do sometimes by Mr. Market
You should thank me, I take the other side of your winning trades.
  • #53,377
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:35pm Oct 8, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting mportt11
Yeah... I placed a small short around 1.0235 and closed it because I didn't like the way the PA was going. Will watch and wait until PA gets up around 1.0325-30 to look for a short opportunity. Prolly get bent over but thats what us speculator's have to do sometimes by Mr. Market
we'll see.. i think it will have a struggle to get over 1.0300 but if it does it will be ripe for shorting.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #53,378
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:37pm Oct 8, 2012 9:37pm
Quoting england33
we'll see.. i think it will have a struggle to get over 1.0300 but if it does it will be ripe for shorting.
and I neglected to say I don't see a short signal on the 1h - the tf I'm currently charting.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #53,379
  • Oct 8, 2012 9:57pm Oct 8, 2012 9:57pm
At the moment no one should take gold appreciation for further evidence to buy AUD/USD

1st CorCoef is heavily inverse and only when we cross to strong DIRECT relationship should it be monitored.

2nd. Watch earning of Miners in Australia with the increase in Gold prices see how they did in this last qtr in terms of deposits/Revenue from this sector only then can you rely on Gold as a driver for AUD/USD (never take the spot of Coal/Iron)


Cuts matter to the banking sector and more importantly to new debt issuance/Outside investors. If we get another cut start looking at the implication of 'speculative flows'


Dominoes ladies and Gentleman dominoes!!!



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  • #53,380
  • Oct 8, 2012 10:08pm Oct 8, 2012 10:08pm
Quoting jplazard
At the moment no one should take gold appreciation for further evidence to buy AUD/USD

1st CorCoef is heavily inverse and only when we cross to strong DIRECT relationship should it be monitored.

2nd. Watch earning of Miners in Australia with the increase in Gold prices see how they did in this last qtr in terms of deposits/Revenue from this sector only then can you rely on Gold as a driver for AUD/USD (never take the spot of Coal/Iron)


Cuts matter to the banking sector and more importantly to new debt issuance/Outside investors. If we get...
The Gold Rallies are purely on QE3 speculation, now that QE3 is done and dusted, time to let the dust settle and see the grander scheme of things....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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