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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,521
  • Oct 4, 2012 10:40am Oct 4, 2012 10:40am
Quoting bassramy
Break of resistance and Ascending triangle with probable Trade setup.
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  • #5,522
  • Oct 5, 2012 6:26am Oct 5, 2012 6:26am
Hi Shahab,
Do you consider short in here? Overall trend is down and we have Res and 61.2 fib level overlap.

Thanks
Mike
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,523
  • Oct 5, 2012 6:31am Oct 5, 2012 6:31am
Quoting shahab8b
May I ask what is that Blue line? I guess you had your first BUY pending order on it.

Regards
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,524
  • Oct 5, 2012 7:32am Oct 5, 2012 7:32am
Twist or stick time i guess :roll eyes:
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  • #5,525
  • Oct 5, 2012 2:10pm Oct 5, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting mike1349
Hi Shahab,
Do you consider short in here? Overall trend is down and we have Res and 61.2 fib level overlap.

Thanks
Mike
Hi Mike,
Blue line is Monthly Pivot. But it's not just about that, there was a confluence of 1) Support 2)Fib 38.2 3)Monthly Pivot. If you wanna set a pending order you should look for two or more confluence: look for 1) S/R 2)Fib 3) Pivots 4)TLs
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  • #5,526
  • Oct 5, 2012 2:14pm Oct 5, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting mike1349
Hi Shahab,
Do you consider short in here? Overall trend is down and we have Res and 61.2 fib level overlap.

Thanks
Mike
The trend is down? what time frame? how do you define your trend on any given TF?
  • #5,527
  • Oct 5, 2012 3:56pm Oct 5, 2012 3:56pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Mike,
I'm not sure if I got your question right. 1) when talking about trend you need to consider the TF as for EJ trend in monthly, weekly, 4h, hr is down; in daily chart is seems it's mixed (at least to me). 2) if the trend is up you need to draw your fibs the other way. S are 99.50 and 99 (fib 50 and prior R). R are 101 and 102.
I think you said it here:

"1) when talking about trend you need to consider the TF as for EJ trend in monthly, weekly, 4h, hr is down;"
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,528
  • Oct 5, 2012 4:00pm Oct 5, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Mike,
Blue line is Monthly Pivot. But it's not just about that, there was a confluence of 1) Support 2)Fib 38.2 3)Monthly Pivot. If you wanna set a pending order you should look for two or more confluence: look for 1) S/R 2)Fib 3) Pivots 4)TLs
Thanks Shahb.You got an eagle eye.I am learning alot from you.

Regards
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,529
  • Oct 5, 2012 5:17pm Oct 5, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting mike1349
I think you said it here:

"1) when talking about trend you need to consider the TF as for EJ trend in monthly, weekly, 4h, hr is down;"
I know I did, I wanted you to tell me how you define the trend.
  • #5,530
  • Oct 5, 2012 5:34pm Oct 5, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting mike1349
I think you said it here:

"1) when talking about trend you need to consider the TF as for EJ trend in monthly, weekly, 4h, hr is down;"
Here is how I define a trend. If you look at the charts long enough, you will see where the bias changes. The chart is an example for EG daily trend.
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  • #5,531
  • Oct 5, 2012 6:15pm Oct 5, 2012 6:15pm
Quoting shahab8b
Here is how I define a trend. If you look at the charts long enough, you will see where the bias changes. The chart is an example for EG daily trend.
Thanks Shahab.
So I think what you are showing is after we didn't get any more lower high and the last high was broken(your right black arrow) bias has changed.

I hope I got your diagram right.

So I guess from now on I should be loooking for Fib levels and Supports to go long in retraces.
Have a good weekend.
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,532
  • Oct 6, 2012 1:50am Oct 6, 2012 1:50am
Which broker do you use ?, because there is a big difference in PA candles from your charts to mine.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,533
  • Oct 7, 2012 1:32pm Oct 7, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting bassramy
Which broker do you use ?, because there is a big difference in PA candles from your charts to mine.

Hi Bassramy, I've noticed when it comes to 4 hrly charts there are major differences between many providors, for instance, Reuters is a different picture to Bloomberg who is different again to a web based service etc etc. It all depends WHEN they start their 4 hrly bar for the week / day. Unfortunately if your system is sentsitive to a 4 hrly close or pattern it does mean one chart can get a signal and another chart may not... I check on the hrly as well to try and negate this.
  • #5,534
  • Oct 8, 2012 5:15am Oct 8, 2012 5:15am
GU: trying a quick long with a tight SL
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  • #5,535
  • Oct 8, 2012 5:31am Oct 8, 2012 5:31am
Quoting shahab8b
GU: trying a quick long with a tight SL
Such a clean move lower, I'll rather wait for pa to confirm. For me the small reactions higher do not suggest buyers around, just yet at least. You have such a good track record makes me wonder though.

Cheers.
  • #5,536
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:27am Oct 8, 2012 6:27am
What about EU ?
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,537
  • Edited 3:49pm Oct 8, 2012 2:23pm | Edited 3:49pm
Failed 4 times to close above res. Kind of breaking the triangle south now. + Daily bearish div. Interesting.
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Hello.
  • #5,538
  • Oct 8, 2012 7:06pm Oct 8, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting shahab8b
GU: trying a quick long with a tight SL
Shahab; what is your call on gold, looks traped in this weekly chart
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  • #5,539
  • Oct 9, 2012 12:52am Oct 9, 2012 12:52am
Silver trade update.

Quoting emene
Failed 4 times to close above res. Kind of breaking the triangle south now. + Daily bearish div. Interesting.
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Hello.
  • #5,540
  • Oct 10, 2012 5:41am Oct 10, 2012 5:41am
Quoting Vantage
Such a clean move lower, I'll rather wait for pa to confirm. For me the small reactions higher do not suggest buyers around, just yet at least. You have such a good track record makes me wonder though.

Cheers.
Thanks for your comment.You were right, but my setup was justified to me, risking 15pips for 60-80pips profit. and it did bounce from that level but only about 15 pips.
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