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  • #41
  • Oct 4, 2012 10:21am Oct 4, 2012 10:21am
Quoting Chicky
1.2941 seems to be a good level to try a long
Trying to scalp against the move. Let's see what happens.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #42
  • Oct 4, 2012 4:59pm Oct 4, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting Chicky
Trying to scalp against the move. Let's see what happens.
Cannot describe what happened.

9 out of every 10 times, those scalps cost me a lot.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #43
  • Oct 4, 2012 5:04pm Oct 4, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting Chicky
Cannot describe what happened.

9 out of every 10 times, those scalps cost me a lot.
Carrying that short now as a main position. Should hit my tp, if technicals are something. Maybe today, maybe next week, but pa should hit my tp at 1.2972.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #44
  • Oct 4, 2012 10:57pm Oct 4, 2012 10:57pm
Moved tp to a relatively comfortable level, at 1.2988 (just above our level of 1.2986) though I am sure if it gets there will also attempt and 1.2960. But I feel like getting some rest for tomorrows Marathon (which is at a very inconvenient time, I will be in a meeting, ....................my first business meeting in this new country).
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #45
  • Oct 5, 2012 8:25am Oct 5, 2012 8:25am
Quoting Chicky
Moved tp to a relatively comfortable level, at 1.2988 (just above our level of 1.2986) though I am sure if it gets there will also attempt and 1.2960. But I feel like getting some rest for tomorrows Marathon (which is at a very inconvenient time, I will be in a meeting, ....................my first business meeting in this new country).
My connection is down for last several hours. Can not access my charts. Thanks to cellphone, at least I can do something. Pa should soon follow news. Thinking of lowering tp to near 1.2760
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #46
  • Oct 5, 2012 1:26pm Oct 5, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting Chicky
My connection is down for last several hours. Can not access my charts. Thanks to cellphone, at least I can do something. Pa should soon follow news. Thinking of lowering tp to near 1.2760
Temporarily connected using ethernet. Its better.

Moved TP to 1.2767. Just above that green fib. Its a major 50% fib. Currently the stop loss (margin call) is at $7,647, but if pa goes south breaking 1.3000, will try to bring it to $10,000 by adding more shorts.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #47
  • Oct 5, 2012 4:56pm Oct 5, 2012 4:56pm
Small profits and big losses.

Time for a slightly bigger loss................................ or a huge profit.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #48
  • Oct 6, 2012 1:52pm Oct 6, 2012 1:52pm

I have changed rules of this thread and accordingly amended the first post.

You are now free to participate and let me know of my mistakes or post your views here.

The Thief of Wall Street
  • #49
  • Oct 6, 2012 2:52pm Oct 6, 2012 2:52pm
Hi Chicky, glad you finally opened this up. I also noticed the first post

Just curious because you seem to only be scalping and taking trades based on major fib levels (but only their retracements) and PA.

I'm not as experienced as you but lately I've been asking myself one thing. How do I know which direction to base my trades on aside from being bull or bear biased?

I ask myself that because I don't make use of MAs, RSI (less of it), Stochastics, CCI or anything. And normally PA doesn't tell a whole story unless you get those pin point dead on ones like a doji right after an uptrend or an engulfing bar.

I'm asking this question also because I'm not quite sure how you trade and it seems like you're just taking chances that it would go bear or bull from here. Sorry if I seem rude. I definitely don't intend to.

I recently picked up learning EW. And I feel that this upward movement for EURUSD is a corrective b wave of wave 2. Which means that we need to see wave c lower than wave a from 1.317x to 1.28x. And if AB = CD, then 1.307 from this up move should bring us to about 1.27.

What do you think of it?

And my tp is actually somewhere around 1.27 too. Cheers.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #50
  • Oct 6, 2012 3:24pm Oct 6, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting aeternum
Hi Chicky, glad you finally opened this up. I also noticed the first post

Just curious because you seem to only be scalping and taking trades based on major fib levels (but only their retracements) and PA.

I'm not as experienced as you but lately I've been asking myself one thing. How do I know which direction to base my trades on aside from being bull or bear biased?

I ask myself that because I don't make use of MAs, RSI (less of it), Stochastics, CCI or anything. And normally PA doesn't tell a whole story unless you get those pin point...

aeternum, thanks for participating.

I don't know what kind of trader I am, either scalper or not, but:

on my main real account, I take a consistent 0.5% risk per trade. 0.5% 0f the account balance just before taking a trade. Not more than one trade at a time, only eurousd, sl 5 to 25 pips and tp 10 to 30 pips. If I see pa is stuck at a level, take a trade in opposite direction if pa bangs its head/ass into a resistance/support. Most of the time it takes many attempts for pa to break a support/resistance. In long run my my win rate is slightly more than rate of loss. I now use 25% and 50% fib retracements or 125% and 150% fib extensions to identify these levels.

on other real accounts of smaller amounts, I tak chances of a break wiith good r/r. Normally 1:5 to 1:10. There is no pips limit for these trades, but my risk is not more than 1% per trade.

This is probably why, when I try to experiment Jesse Livermore method, get deviated and start scalping out of habit. For example, my current short on this demo account is against all the rules and methods, based only on US unemployment news. I have a similar trade also on my tiny real account. This is an experiment account trying to convert $14 to $100 before I replace this demo account with that $100 account. It currently has a balance of $25. For last two months this account is fluctuating between $25 and $55. I am now taking bigger risks on this account. Funding this account to $100 is not a problem, but what's the use if one cannot grow an account?

I do not use any technicals or indicators other than fibs only because I can do with naked eyes what most of these indicators show on screen. For example, MACD shows direction of a trend, expecially major reversal swings, Stochastic shows the deviation from mean of a channel, etc.

One more technique I use, which proves right most of the time, is where pa would stall before a major news. For example, it was very much expected that pa would stall near 1.3000 for the NFP, either to break this level or bounce from there after some dancing. If you read my post just before and after NFP you would notice that I reversed my long position near 1.3000 based on probable reaction of the news. Now again if you look at my TP it is again at a decision level. If I am right, after the encouraging employment figures (I am not debating correctness of data), the pa should go back to indecision level at 1.2750 or at least below 1.3000. I may be right or wrong. If I am wrong, my risk is less than probable gain, this is what I call money mangement.

Hope this helps
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #51
  • Oct 6, 2012 3:34pm Oct 6, 2012 3:34pm
Quoting Chicky
aeternum, thanks for participating.

I don't know what kind of trader I am, either scalper or not, but:

on my main real account, I take a consistent 0.5% risk per trade. 0.5% 0f the account balance just before taking a trade. Not more than one trade at a time, only eurousd, sl 5 to 25 pips and tp 10 to 30 pips. If I see pa is stuck at a level, take a trade in opposite direction if pa bangs its head/ass into a resistance/support. Most of the time it takes many attempts for pa to break a support/resistance. In long run my my win rate is slightly...
Definitely helps. But I realised sometimes when price keeps banging against a certain level, its a 50-50 chance to either break and overshoot (I notice most of the times, as long as we just go 1 pip over the line, we will eventually break it), or U-turn and fall face first.

I am trying my trades without any indicators right now, based solely on support and resistance and fibonacci levels only. Daresay, similar to what you are doing although I definitely lack the experience.

Right now with EW, I have also spotted a possible gartley pattern appearing with 1.317 to 1.28 being an AB move. It retraced almost 78.6 (so it may actually test 1.30927 really soon), and the 127.2 of BC from 1.28 to 1.307 is at 1.273, which again reinforces my EW counts.

I'm not sure if this is right, but NFP, being bullish for USD is also on my side (although most people say employment has decreased from August highs of 160 something thousand) and whatnot about people not finding jobs anymore.

If this pattern plays out and PA goes to 1.27306, I would be way more confident with my trading.

As of now, I am always afraid of letting a winning trade run. But I always let the losers run. That's a huge newbie mistake. Need to get it out of me.

Cheers.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #52
  • Oct 6, 2012 4:35pm Oct 6, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting aeternum
Definitely helps. But I realised sometimes when price keeps banging against a certain level, its a 50-50 chance to either break and overshoot (I notice most of the times, as long as we just go 1 pip over the line, we will eventually break it), or U-turn and fall face first.

I am trying my trades without any indicators right now, based solely on support and resistance and fibonacci levels only. Daresay, similar to what you are doing although I definitely lack the experience.

Right now with EW, I have also spotted a possible gartley pattern appearing...
Break or bounce is always a chance. The only thing I try to do is to take a position when market is moving. If I enter in wrong direction, get a chance of correcting myslef. However, important thing here is the number of pip sl. If one is risking very few pips, can earn back those few pips, but if the number is high, it may require more than one move to compensate for one loss.

The best is to have a limit for sl and tp. A hard limit. PA may miss a tp by just one pip and reverse to hit your sl. But at the same time, vice versa could also happen. I make two or three tries. If they do not work, I accept 1% to 1.5% loss and come at FF to get busy. My trading on real account doesn't take more than few minutes a day. I try to set and forget because I know, longer I am there, more chance of doing something stupid.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #53
  • Oct 7, 2012 1:00am Oct 7, 2012 1:00am
Quoting Chicky
Break or bounce is always a chance. The only thing I try to do is to take a position when market is moving. If I enter in wrong direction, get a chance of correcting myslef. However, important thing here is the number of pip sl. If one is risking very few pips, can earn back those few pips, but if the number is high, it may require more than one move to compensate for one loss.

The best is to have a limit for sl and tp. A hard limit. PA may miss a tp by just one pip and reverse to hit your sl. But at the same time, vice versa could also happen....
Totally agree with the last sentence. But sometimes I can't help it. Just want to watch my trade run so I can manually control it.

I am trying to perfect my entry so I can have a tight SL and a bigger TP target.

Hope you continue earning money and I hope this method works Cheers.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #54
  • Edited 1:12pm Oct 7, 2012 10:55am | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting Chicky
.......................... The only thing I try to do is to take a position when market is moving. If I enter in wrong direction, get a chance of correcting myslef. However, important thing here is the number of pip sl. If one is risking very few pips, can earn back those few pips, but if the number is high, it may require more than one move to compensate for one loss............
Day before yesterday I went to a book-launching ceremony with my son. The author, a Harvard professor, gave a one hour presentation explaining contents of one chapter from his book. My son also bought the book signed by the author. Next day he again wanted to go and attend the same presentation, by the same author at another location. On my suggestion of not going to the same presentation, he gave me this example.

A person traveling through India saw few elephants tied to a tree with a very weak rope. The elephants could have very easily broken this thin rope and had set themselves free but they didn't. The observer asked from the Mahavat (elephant caretaker) what was going on. The Mahavat replied that when these elephants were babies, he used to tie them up with this rope, they tried but couldn't break this rope at that time. Now they are gown up and can break this rope, but they still think that they won't be able to break that rope because they have stopped trying after first few attempts when they were young.

My son was trying to make a point that he could go to the presentation despite my disapproval, but he was respecting my suggestion.

Same thing applies in establishing a positon. It requires more than one attempt in different market situations.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #55
  • Edited 1:06pm Oct 7, 2012 12:47pm | Edited 1:06pm
The Currency Market - All market movements are based on collective demand and supply created by millions of buyers and sellers. Unlike commodities and stocks, in currency market, every buyer is also a seller and every seller is also a buyer, because currencies are traded in pairs. A buyers has to pay for a currency bought with another currency and a seller has to get another currency against a currency sold. Markets never remains stable at one price level because demand and supply keeps on changing and therefore price always keeps on moving either up or down. However, whatever direction it moves, it never goes straight in that direction.

Each currency pair has its own personality with steady and recognizable patterns and pace. This seems a bit strange, but it is an undeniable fact that market tends to respect psychological levels, pivots, fibs, waves, trend lines, etc. as supports and resistances. Study of this price behavior is generally known as technicals.

Market flows from one point to the next, forming price trends and consolidations. Price consolidations ultimately break, followed by retraces. Market sometimes shows high volatility and forms spikes, especially near news releases. It takes much force to stop and reverse a mega market trend and therefore reversals of main trends take time.

One common price behavior is that when market moves, it moves very quickly. Generally a major move takes place within minutes. Then it stops near some level and consolidates. Such consolidations could take form of: 1) a range, where price fluctuates up and down between two price levels without showing a direction, or 2) a channel, where price fluctuates up and down but it has a distinct up or down direction. At some point, this range or channel ultimately breaks and again a major move. It is also not uncommon for the price to show very random behavior during such consolidations. There could be a situation where price consolidates but with no obvious range or channel. Many refer to this price behavior as Choppy Market.

Not always, but many times, soon after a breakout, price takes a U-turn and either goes back in the direction of the break or in the opposite direction.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #56
  • Oct 7, 2012 6:48pm Oct 7, 2012 6:48pm
Long scalp, upto 1.2925
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #57
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:35pm Oct 7, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting Chicky
Long scalp, upto 1.2925
Getting stopped out and re-entering for the same TP target. Should achieve this target before London open, if not earlier.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #58
  • Oct 7, 2012 11:53pm Oct 7, 2012 11:53pm
Quoting Chicky
Getting stopped out and re-entering for the same TP target. Should achieve this target before London open, if not earlier.
I am slightly off my position size calculation, but can get a killing chance.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #59
  • Oct 8, 2012 12:10am Oct 8, 2012 12:10am
Quoting Chicky
I am slightly off my position size calculation, but can get a killing chance.
Regardless of the outcome, this is probably the best trade I had on this practice account. It meets almost all Jesse Livermore money management rules. The only issue is that this position is 20% or 25% heavier than it should be. The righ lot size for this positon was to start with was 4 lots, 3.5 even better.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #60
  • Oct 8, 2012 11:33pm Oct 8, 2012 11:33pm
Going to make some money tonight.
The Thief of Wall Street
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