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AUD/USD

  • #53,301
  • Oct 7, 2012 12:18pm Oct 7, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting macroman
so, what are you if may ask : retail or something else ?
i am a COUNTER-RETAIL trader.... doesnt mean im one of the big boys, but im smart enough not to be a Sheep, im a Sheep Disguised as a Wolf to join the Wolfpack lol....
Depending how market opens we will see if its gona be a retrace first or a drop from the start.
im 35% certain its a gap down and monday will be to fill the gap then a continuation of the whole week downwards.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,302
  • Oct 7, 2012 12:32pm Oct 7, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting bguguen
i am a COUNTER-RETAIL trader.... doesnt mean im one of the big boys, but im smart enough not to be a Sheep, im a Sheep Disguised as a Wulf to join the Wulfpack lol....
Depending how market opens we will see if its gona be a retrace first or a drop from the start.
im 35% certain its a gap down and monday will be to fill the gap then a continuation of the whole week downwards.

Fixed...

watch the 1.0117 area in early trading today guys....
  • #53,303
  • Oct 7, 2012 12:35pm Oct 7, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Fixed...

watch the 1.0117 area in early trading today guys....
Lol... you dont say?? my bad wulfy!
shall we see parity this week??

If only there was a REAL TIME COT chart for all pairs.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,304
  • Oct 7, 2012 1:03pm Oct 7, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting bguguen
Lol... you dont say?? my bad wulfy!
shall we see parity this week??

If only there was a REAL TIME COT chart for all pairs.
Could happen my friend. Few hurdles to get through before we see that. Perhaps by Friday after all the data is digested.

Up or down, Ill be in it and making money.

Early wellington traders are continuing the push downwards...
  • #53,305
  • Oct 7, 2012 3:58pm Oct 7, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting bguguen
i am a COUNTER-RETAIL trader.... doesnt mean im one of the big boys, but im smart enough not to be a Sheep, im a Sheep Disguised as a Wolf to join the Wolfpack lol....
Depending how market opens we will see if its gona be a retrace first or a drop from the start.
im 35% certain its a gap down and monday will be to fill the gap then a continuation of the whole week downwards.
i am in the same boat. so, it is all down to source of information.
  • #53,306
  • Oct 7, 2012 5:01pm Oct 7, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting bguguen
i am a COUNTER-RETAIL trader.... doesnt mean im one of the big boys, but im smart enough not to be a Sheep, im a Sheep Disguised as a Wolf to join the Wolfpack lol....
Depending how market opens we will see if its gona be a retrace first or a drop from the start.
im 35% certain its a gap down and monday will be to fill the gap then a continuation of the whole week downwards.
There goes my 35% certainty of a gap down LOL....
sheesh im good!
AUDUSD opened 1.0165, friday closed 1.0190
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,307
  • Oct 7, 2012 6:57pm Oct 7, 2012 6:57pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Definitely interesting times with the EUR. I stay far away from EUR/USD but really enjoy trading EUR/AUD. It is probably the easiest pair for me to trade on a consistent basis.

However, I need to wait to see what happens this week before making any more moves.

I don't understand what is going on with the EUR either, kind of mind boggling to say the least...
Hey 100P, looks like will take awhile for AUD to hit parity if it ever get there in near future.

Weekly
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=6A&cot=232741&p=w1

Daily
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=6A&cot=232741&p=w1

Hourly
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=6A&cot=232741&p=h1

  • #53,308
  • Oct 7, 2012 7:01pm Oct 7, 2012 7:01pm
Be worried here guys the traders who (contrarian trade) I follow not from this AUD thread (other thread) are now shifting bias bearish from bullish) and the PR machine of Analyst and economist are coming out defending the Mining machine so look for a a possible reversal retesting 1.03 area soon .
  • #53,309
  • Oct 7, 2012 7:04pm Oct 7, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting shanewatson
Monday is market open day and do you think news release of Stevens speak will effect the AUD/USD? I don't have the experience of news trading at the very beginning of Monday. If senior have the experience please share.

Stevens won't be commenting on economic or monetary policy to Parliament .
He's appearing at a Standing Comittee answering questions on the Securency scandal .

Here's his opening statement to the House of Reps Standing Commitee of Economics ;

http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2012/sp-gov-081012.html
  • #53,310
  • Oct 7, 2012 7:55pm Oct 7, 2012 7:55pm
Quoting Ken A
Hey 100P, looks like will take awhile for AUD to hit parity if it ever get there in near future.
Hi Ken,

According to my analysis and indicators I am seeing below parity within the next 2 weeks. Take a look at my chart and I'll explain why.

This chart is a Weekly AUD/USD chart which has my custom indicator which is actually pretty complex. This indicator uses several moving averages, RSI, and speed of price change.

Take a look at the weekly indicators since April 2008 until now. There have been a total of 18 buy/sell signals on the Weekly chart.

13 of the 18 signals have been extremely reliable giving at least 300 (very conservative) pips within 1-4 weeks of the signal. Often times the moves were much much bigger... (signals with blue circles)

5 of the 18 signals were still profitable and the moves were still in favor of the signals within 1-4 weeks, however, moves were not as drastic. (signals with white circles)

Take a look at my Weekly chart and tell me what you think. All in all it has a 72% chance of moving 300+ pips in the next few weeks and a 90% chance of "at least" moving in our favor during the next week or two based off of historical evidence.

Needless to say, I am still leaning towards more downward movement during the next 1-3 weeks as I have a fresh Weekly Sell indicator!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD - Weekly (2008-2012.jpg Size: 203 KB
  • #53,311
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:04pm Oct 7, 2012 8:04pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hi Ken,

According to my analysis and indicators I am seeing below parity within the next 2 weeks. Take a look at my chart and I'll explain why.

This chart is a Weekly AUD/USD chart which has my custom indicator which is actually pretty complex. This indicator uses several moving averages, RSI, and speed of price change.

Take a look at the weekly indicators since April 2008 until now. There have been a total of 18 buy/sell signals on the Weekly chart.

13 of the 18 signals have been extremely reliable giving at least 300 (very conservative)...
2 weeks could be but I don't expect it this week. Does the indicator show retrace level too?
  • #53,312
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:11pm Oct 7, 2012 8:11pm
Quoting Ken A
2 weeks could be but I don't expect it this week. Does the indicator show retrace level too?
Please help me understand what you mean by retrace level?
  • #53,313
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:15pm Oct 7, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting Ken A
2 weeks could be but I don't expect it this week. Does the indicator show retrace level too?
Be careful bro, Parity could easily happen if data on Australian Employment figures coming out on thursday ends up being bad.... WATCH the Unemployment Rate... and focus less on Employment Change...
Unemployment Rate, i expect it will come out bad....

In the Mean time, everyone on this thread... DO YOURSELF A FAVOUR
and dont go to this Thread. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=374571
You will die! This Daddybear guys still cant admit defeat that 1.10 wont happen anytime soon... and still asking ppl to justify why 0.9877 would happen soon... i mean what more of an idiot can he be??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,314
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:18pm Oct 7, 2012 8:18pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Please help me understand what you mean by retrace level?
Sorry, I mean retest before the down move. From my chart the latest high was 1.02711.
  • #53,315
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:23pm Oct 7, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting Ken A
Sorry, I mean retest before the down move. From my chart the latest high was 1.02711.
LOL I wish I did! Then I wouldn't use such large SL!
  • #53,316
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:55pm Oct 7, 2012 8:55pm
A bearish wedgie?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: v.gif Size: 19 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #53,317
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:17pm Oct 7, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting bogus
A bearish wedgie?
dont go drawing these lines during asia dude.... look at higher TFs, nothing suggests a pullback yet, if anything the pullback this week would be a news triggered one... otherwise technical is driving AUDUSD to new lows.
Especially when the News is not helping AUDUSD either
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...sia-and-china/
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,318
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:19pm Oct 7, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting jplazard
Be worried here guys the traders who (contrarian trade) I follow not from this AUD thread (other thread) are now shifting bias bearish from bullish) and the PR machine of Analyst and economist are coming out defending the Mining machine so look for a a possible reversal retesting 1.03 area soon .


may see a push to the 1.0117 area before then my friend


at least thats what im gunnin for

http://clip2net.com/s/2nf2p
  • #53,319
  • Edited 9:33pm Oct 7, 2012 9:23pm | Edited 9:33pm
Bguguen,

I agree on DB. I don't comment on him anymore although I do get frustrated when he talks about the big boys or the institutions like he knows what they do. He never worked for an Ibank and it shows, so for him to say the big boys dont know how to pick tops/bottoms I will take the other side of that trade 100%. Not to mention he has been saying this level since AUG and has been talking about EW (which has been redrawn several times)

Sep30 post by DB.
In my earlier posts, I indicated S2 could be the point of return. Those big boys like to chase underdogs to the corner. I guess they have some mindset problems. If my chart reading is correct, 1.1031 could be reached on 10/17/12. IMHO

Another member asked him on the ABC reversal pattern where it becomes invalid on Thursday and he has yet to post a response on where that price will be. This avoids being held accountable like so many other finance types who make mistakes but are too egotistical to say they were wrong or that the counter argument had more valid points
  • #53,320
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:24pm Oct 7, 2012 9:24pm
I agree and posted that on my journal if we dont get a break above by Tuesday than the level to watch is lower. Targeting 1.0050
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