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AUD/USD

  • #53,281
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:25am Oct 7, 2012 2:25am
wait for 1.0150
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH42012.10.07.jpg Size: 152 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDAILY2012.10.07_??.jpg Size: 449 KB
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #53,282
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:28am Oct 7, 2012 2:28am
Quoting macroman
thanks for the link ! Added to my bookmarks.
Looks like retail is buying when going down and selling when going up.
Yes, unfortunately this is what happens. So looking at current 1 Week and 1 month time frame with retail buying and market going down, I would say there is still some more room for downward movement.

Figuring out how far down is up to us to find out

It is always wise to look for historical support/resistance zones starting with the larger time frames first. (Monthly & Weekly)
  • #53,283
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:29am Oct 7, 2012 2:29am
Quoting 100PipsADay
No problem MacroMan!

Tell me which Month/Day (as close to it) you are referring to and I'll do my best to explain.
see sept 14 on 1 month chart. aud was on high point when long position at the low point ?!?

that seem retail is smart, no ?
  • #53,284
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:36am Oct 7, 2012 2:36am
Aussie is in oversold zone for now. any pullback now is normal. the key area at 1.0250/70 area.
forexpillariscipline & patience Trader
  • #53,285
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:37am Oct 7, 2012 2:37am
Quoting macroman
see sept 14 on 1 month chart. aud was on high point when long position at the low point ?!?

that seem retail is smart, no ?
Well not quite because look at what happened for the following 3 weeks. More and more long positions by retailersbut market started to drop.

Look for when the long positions and market "crossover." Also, look at the 1 year time frame. I'll go ahead and edit up the 1 year Historical Positions chart and show you what happened when the long positions and market price crossover. Give me a few minutes.
  • #53,286
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:40am Oct 7, 2012 2:40am
Quoting paulyjah
Aussie is in oversold zone for now. any pullback now is normal. the key area at 1.0250/70 area.
A wise and successful trader once told me that there is no such thing as "over sold" in a down trend and no such thing as "over bought" in an uptrend.

But you're right, pull backs are normal and only provide traders with the opportunity to scale in new positions.
  • #53,287
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:40am Oct 7, 2012 2:40am
Quoting geniusztc
wait for 1.0150
yes, that is what i am looking for to start my longterm long position.

my technical view, which is not primary driver but handy to set stops. sorry if not clear as it is first time i attached picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: myview.JPG Size: 97 KB
  • #53,288
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:43am Oct 7, 2012 2:43am
Quoting macroman
thanks for the link ! Added to my bookmarks.

Observing 1 year graph, long postions were at maximum, when audusd turned north. Or am I reading this incorrectly ?

Looks like retail is buying when going down and selling when going up.

from what i know retail trades trend and this week was clearly down.

COT decreased net long positions for 31% as presume stop losses were hit.
I think the graph shows only Oanda retails (not sure the % of total retail) and doesn't represent overall retails which could include banks in smaller countries. While market positions are commercial, institutions and hedge funds and their position are in larger time frame as compared to Oanda retails. COT is more accurate as indication to where position shifted related to fundamental changes in larger time frame. JP explained this more details in one of his posts.

I am on a mobile device to attach the link but I think you can find it in JP thread Bear Raid.
  • #53,289
  • Oct 7, 2012 3:05am Oct 7, 2012 3:05am
I understand these charts are only for Oanda clients but it does show a clear picture of what happened on a historical basis.


Historical "High" Long Position % Extremes: 60% - 80%

Historical "Low" Long Position % Extremes: 30% - 45%


**Sorry about my error, I meant to put COT instead of CFTC in the bottom right corner of the chart! LOL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD - Divergence (1 year explained).png Size: 78 KB
  • #53,290
  • Oct 7, 2012 3:18am Oct 7, 2012 3:18am
ok, i see. Will keep watching...

btw, auction results in au this weekend pretty good, so after all there may be no extra rate cut.

http://apm.domain.com.au/Research/AuctionResults/

dont worry about these % increases, it is just a marketing trick.
  • #53,291
  • Oct 7, 2012 3:21am Oct 7, 2012 3:21am
Quoting Ken A
I think the graph shows only Oanda retails (not sure the % of total retail) and doesn't represent overall retails which could include banks in smaller countries. While market positions are commercial, institutions and hedge funds and their position are in larger time frame as compared to Oanda retails. COT is more accurate as indication to where position shifted related to fundamental changes in larger time frame. JP explained this more details in one of his posts.

I am on a mobile device to attach the link but I think you can find it in JP...
Hey Ken!

You're right, this chart is only for Oanda clients and the COT is definitely a useful tool for fundies and larger time frames.

Just this past weeks (Oct. 2, 2012) COT report shows that 20,500 "long" contracts were dropped by institutional traders! That is almost 20% of ALL of the Non-Commercial futures contracts that are reported.

20%... I definitely see more downside. Next stop for me is .985 and then .963.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD - CoT (10-2-2012).png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD - TP Targets (October).jpg Size: 190 KB
  • #53,292
  • Oct 7, 2012 3:33am Oct 7, 2012 3:33am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hey Ken!

You're right, this chart is only for Oanda clients and the COT is definitely a useful tool for fundies and larger time frames.

Just this past weeks (Oct. 2, 2012) COT report shows that 20,500 "long" contracts were dropped by institutional traders! That is almost 20% of ALL of the Non-Commercial futures contracts that are reported.

20%... I definitely see more downside. Next stop for me is .985 and then .963.
Hi 100P, hope you are doing well. If you short from above I would definitely hold it. I exited before the rate cut announced because I was away from the computer. A bit reluctant for new entry but I have many long for E/A. Also, watch Dollar Index anticipating surprises. Sorry for any typo from portable device with virtual keyboard lol
  • #53,293
  • Oct 7, 2012 3:46am Oct 7, 2012 3:46am
Quoting Ken A
Hi 100P, hope you are doing well. If you short from above I would definitely hold it. I exited before the rate cut announced because I was away from the computer. A bit reluctant for new entry but I have many long for E/A. Also, watch Dollar Index anticipating surprises. Sorry for any typo from portable device with virtual keyboard lol
I'm doing good. Yea, I got in a few days before the rate cut and have scaled in a few more positions since so I'm content with what I have now.

Congratulations on the E/A trades! I closed my last E/A trade on Oct. 2.

Open: Sep. 4, 1.22838
Close: Oct. 2, 1.26024

Total: 318 Pips

Where do you see E/A headed in the near future? Curious to hear your thoughts!

Hope you had a good weekend Ken!
  • #53,294
  • Oct 7, 2012 3:55am Oct 7, 2012 3:55am
I see E/A might overshoot to 1.3++ if AUD is heading to parity. Eur is gaining at alarming rate and I am anticipating more USD bashing next week. USD gains but Eur gains even more. I am watching many charts at the same time and I still don't have a clue why Eur gains so much defying all fundamental outlook in EZ.
  • #53,295
  • Oct 7, 2012 4:01am Oct 7, 2012 4:01am
Quoting Ken A
I see E/A might overshoot to 1.3++ if AUD is heading to parity. Eur is gaining at alarming rate and I am anticipating more USD bashing next week. USD gains but Eur gains even more. I am watching many charts at the same time and I still don't have a clue why Eur gains so much defying all fundamental outlook in EZ.
Definitely interesting times with the EUR. I stay far away from EUR/USD but really enjoy trading EUR/AUD. It is probably the easiest pair for me to trade on a consistent basis.

However, I need to wait to see what happens this week before making any more moves.

I don't understand what is going on with the EUR either, kind of mind boggling to say the least...
  • #53,296
  • Oct 7, 2012 7:32am Oct 7, 2012 7:32am
Quoting Ken A
Maximus,

I meant where all the good old value has gone with a healthy discussion exchanging idea and a little sense of humor.
You don't have to explain your trading method. That's not what I meant.

I must be having a terrible comunication skills and should be more considerate to everyone's sensitivity with joke. Guess I am done here and have nothing of value to offer lol


Think that a forum is like the market. You have bubbles. Now there is a bulble fuelled of testosterone and muscles. It will end and we'll have weinstein phase1, and this time you will find again healthy discussion exchanging idea etc.. Don't worry.

Ok, it save my time and yours But if one is interested, he/they can read my posts in cad, znd, aj and cadjpy threads. I do not have to be ashamed.

I'm as expert as you in missing the point when kidding an joking. So I do not blame you. But you know well your abc, and I finally understand that you have understood the point in reading my post. Hope that with this post you'll understand that I've understood that you undestood my first post , therefore there is no misunderstanding between us.
Guess also I'm done here and have nothing of value to offer.
Wish you the best. Cheers !
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #53,297
  • Oct 7, 2012 7:57am Oct 7, 2012 7:57am
Just my 1 cents worth ,Glenn Stevens speech will determine the direction for morning session , I think it should open bearish after the data from the U.S and depends what crap he drivels in front of parliament if sentiment is bearish look for a massive Asian session ...
  • #53,298
  • Oct 7, 2012 8:48am Oct 7, 2012 8:48am
Quoting maximinus
Think that a forum is like the market. You have bubbles. Now there is a bulble fuelled of testosterone and muscles. It will end and we'll have weinstein phase1, and this time you will find again healthy discussion exchanging idea etc.. Don't worry.

Ok, it save my time and yours But if one is interested, he/they can read my posts in cad, znd, aj and cadjpy threads. I do not have to be ashamed.

I'm as expert as you in missing the point when kidding an joking. So I do not blame you. But you know well your abc, and I finally understand...
Not sure if I fully understand, could you please say that again LOL.

Joke aside, there are many good posters here that are humble, mature and have indepth fundamental understanding to offer in their posts. Would be a shame to leave this thread as EURUSD because eventually almost everyone there made it to the 'ignore' list to filter out the noises nothing but insulting, mocking, fighting, bragging, being superior no rules and anything goes.

Not many threads in FF have healthy environment. Kudos to those who invented 'ignore'

Happy weekend.
  • #53,299
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:44am Oct 7, 2012 9:44am
Forecasts
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #53,300
  • Oct 7, 2012 11:35am Oct 7, 2012 11:35am
Monday is market open day and do you think news release of Stevens speak will effect the AUD/USD? I don't have the experience of news trading at the very beginning of Monday. If senior have the experience please share.
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