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  • #161
  • Oct 6, 2012 1:51am Oct 6, 2012 1:51am
Have you wondered why GBPUSD and AUDUSD are dropping like flies while EURUSD is refusing to budge from its 1.30 throne?

EURGBP is currently in an up channel. Has space to probably go up until 0.81444.

EURAUD is also in an up channel, breaking the channel confinements and shooting past 78.6 from May highs.

If both start retracing now, while USD gains some strength, we should see EURUSD drop like a bomb.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 6 October 2012.png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 6 October 2012.png Size: 70 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #162
  • Oct 6, 2012 1:56am Oct 6, 2012 1:56am
Took a look at AUDUSD and also posted at DaddyBear's thread.

I see this down move as a c-wave and a completion of the huge move down. Everything still looks really bearish for AUDUSD. Should weekly be able to close in a doji next week, we could rise back up to 1.06 or 1.07 levels, seeing as EURAUD is seriously overbought right now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 6 October 2012 1H.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 6 October 2012 4H.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 6 October 2012 Daily.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 6 October 2012 Weekly.png Size: 88 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #163
  • Oct 6, 2012 1:59am Oct 6, 2012 1:59am
EURUSD seems to have completed its c-wave of corrective wave b of corrective wave 2 here.

Sounds long winded. The chart will help you see it clearly.

Should it go down the lines now, it would mark the c-wave (may have a chance to reach 1.26 as well). It would also mark the end of corrective wave 2. Which would bring us back to going long again with an even bigger target in mind such as 1.32 - 1.34 as first targets.

This is all assuming that we start wave 1 at 1.20xx new lows from July. If the very first count there is wrong, then the entire thing would be wrong.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 6 October 2012 AM.png Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 6 October 2012 AM Daily.png Size: 90 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #164
  • Edited 2:38am Oct 6, 2012 2:01am | Edited 2:38am
Quoting aeternum
I decided to do something to relieve myself of stupid actions.

I used a demo account to place random entries to test the market.

I placed a buy on eurusd at 1.30353 and I set TP to 1.315.

I also placed a buy on AUDUSD at 1.01872 with TP of 1.03366.

Now time to wait and see which will get to the TP first. My demo account of my live account.

I know that this seems like a really stupid thing to do. But sometimes I make stupid mistakes because of impulsive actions. I hope this prevents that from happening.
My demo account is at a profit.

Quoting aeternum
Opened EURUSD short 1.30334. Too bad I closed my 1.305x trade early.

TP @ 1.27258, looking for a lower low before we start spiking to 1.34.

Following a chart I have made earlier, except that I didn't expect it to break 1.3 earlier on.
While I got stopped out here at BE + 1. Looking to re-enter short here soon. Pending short at 1.30927.

Pending AUDUSD long at 1.010/25.

Pending EURGBP short at 0.81444 or double tops at 0.811x. (May actually just go long on this until it reaches 0.811x, and see if it tests 0.81444, waiting for a small retracement of around 25 pips before I go long, looking for final TP at 0.84992)

Pending EURAUD short at 1.29, going to short this the moment I get a chance to. TP at 1.26506.

Edit: Pending NZDUSD short at 0.84639.

Going to short GBPUSD until 1.605 as well.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #165
  • Oct 6, 2012 3:00am Oct 6, 2012 3:00am
Quoting aeternum

Pending EURAUD short at 1.29, going to short this the moment I get a chance to. TP at 1.26506.
May even go lower to 1.24798.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #166
  • Oct 6, 2012 3:27am Oct 6, 2012 3:27am
Finally time for another COT report.

USDCAD: CAD is at 90.72%. Which gives a really good opportunity to go long here. Which I will do once market opens. Seeing as USDCAD managed to tap on 61.8 at 0.98863. We're now sitting at 0.97838. The lowest we could drop is probably 0.96768. There is a really good risk to reward ratio here.

NZDUSD: We've been overbought for a really long time now. Prices continue to flutter between 0.81 to 0.835 being the peak. I'm unsure if it will break 0.835 and continue to 0.84 and 0.85 because the triangle has broken to the upside. I am looking to go short at 0.84639 with a TP down to 0.7xx regions.

AUDUSD: As everyone knows, we burst upwards to 1.05xx last week. We eased that pressure down, now sitting at 73.88% net long. That would mean we have a lot of downwards momentum if this keeps up. But the fact that 1.02/3 (take note that this is from Tuesday) is only roughly 7%, and that we have eased further down to 1.016 on Friday would mean that net long is sitting somewhere along the 70% lines which means that there is space to continue upwards too. So I'm not looking for a COT positioning here.

GBPUSD: We've peaked out at 1.63 and failed to break higher. Net longs sit at 65.14% which have been the highest over a year. We're looking at 1.613 levels now. I am looking to go short until about 1.6 or 1.59.

EURUSD: Unstoppable since 17 July where it saw 1.20x levels. We have finally seen the first drop in net long positions since 21 August. The rise in USD net longs also contributed to the drop of 1.31x to 1.28x. We've gained back to 1.3x on Friday which means we're still sitting at around 33.4% net long positions. This is the highest we've been at in a year. Also it seems that EURUSD has a habit and tendency to shoot up 200 - 300 pips after Wednesdays. (Bolded for my future reference)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 6 October 2012.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.jpg Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.jpg Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.jpg Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.jpg Size: 68 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #167
  • Oct 6, 2012 6:03am Oct 6, 2012 6:03am
Quoting aeternum
Pending AUDUSD long at 1.010/25.

Pending EURGBP short at 0.81444 or double tops at 0.811x. (May actually just go long on this until it reaches 0.811x, and see if it tests 0.81444, waiting for a small retracement of around 25 pips before I go long, looking for final TP at 0.84992)

Pending EURAUD short at 1.29, going to short this the moment I get a chance to. TP at 1.26506.

Edit: Pending NZDUSD short at 0.84639.

Going to short GBPUSD until 1.605 as well.
Seeing as CAD is overbought, I'm guessing EURCAD is good for long positions too. It reached its lowest in August. Somewhere around 1.21x. It now sits at 1.27471.

Edit: May take the trade if it goes lower and does not break 1.27. TP at 1.31906.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #168
  • Edited Oct 7, 2012 2:02am Oct 6, 2012 7:01am | Edited Oct 7, 2012 2:02am
Quoting aeternum
Pending AUDUSD long at 1.010/25.

Pending EURGBP short at 0.81444 or double tops at 0.811x. (May actually just go long on this until it reaches 0.811x, and see if it tests 0.81444, waiting for a small retracement of around 25 pips before I go long, looking for final TP at 0.84992)

Pending EURAUD short at 1.29, going to short this the moment I get a chance to. TP at 1.26506.

Edit: Pending NZDUSD short at 0.84639.

Going to short GBPUSD until 1.605 as well.
Quoting aeternum
Seeing as CAD is overbought, I'm guessing EURCAD is good for long positions too. It reached its lowest in August. Somewhere around 1.21x. It now sits at 1.27471.

Edit: May take the trade if it goes lower and does not break 1.27. TP at 1.31906.
Pending Long NZDUSD @ 0.81751, TP1 @ 0.835 (BE to 0.825), TP2 @ 0.84639, going to wait for this to go lower to about 0.81272 instead.

Pending Short GBPUSD @ 1.615, TP @ 1.6025, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.621

Pending Short EURAUD @ 1.281, TP @ 1.265, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.2875

Edit: May also go long on USDCAD, TP @ 0.985

Won't be shorting GBPUSD

Pending Short EURUSD @ 1.305/6, TP Open for now, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.311
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #169
  • Oct 6, 2012 3:05pm Oct 6, 2012 3:05pm
I opened up GBPUSD and I see a possible retracement here down to 1.599 with a new fib level drawn from 1.54 lows to 1.63 highs. 1.599 sits at the 50% retracement level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 6 October 2012.png Size: 84 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #170
  • Oct 6, 2012 3:10pm Oct 6, 2012 3:10pm
Did the same thing with EURUSD. Funny enough if I were to try my luck at a gartley pattern, it would seem coincidental that we are at a slight overshoot, somewhere inbetween 61.8 and 78.6 of the move down. And lying at 1.272 awaits 1.27306 which would complete the gartley. It would also complete c move to complete corrective wave 2.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 6 October 2012 PM.png Size: 70 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #171
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:04am Oct 7, 2012 2:04am
I'm taking some time to start looking into Gartley patterns now. It seems pretty interesting because most of the time PA does indeed follow Gartley patterns.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #172
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:15am Oct 7, 2012 2:15am
Just drew some patterns on GBPUSD chart. Got pretty confusing. 18 September to 25 September was a Bullish butterfly. After which we saw a 130-140 pip jump to 1.626xx. I'm still trying to figure out what its forming now. The levels are all plotting up nicely but it doesn't seem to be of any shape because of the drop to 1.606. Perhaps I'm just looking too deep into it.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #173
  • Edited 3:36am Oct 7, 2012 2:41am | Edited 3:36am
Quoting aeternum
Pending AUDUSD long at 1.010/25.

Pending EURGBP short at 0.81444 or double tops at 0.811x. (May actually just go long on this until it reaches 0.811x, and see if it tests 0.81444, waiting for a small retracement of around 25 pips before I go long, looking for final TP at 0.84992)

Pending EURAUD short at 1.29, going to short this the moment I get a chance to. TP at 1.26506.

Edit: Pending NZDUSD short at 0.84639.

Going to short GBPUSD until 1.605 as well.
Quoting aeternum
Seeing as CAD is overbought, I'm guessing EURCAD is good for long positions too. It reached its lowest in August. Somewhere around 1.21x. It now sits at 1.27471.

Edit: May take the trade if it goes lower and does not break 1.27. TP at 1.31906.
Quoting aeternum
Pending Long NZDUSD @ 0.81751, TP1 @ 0.835 (BE to 0.825), TP2 @ 0.84639, going to wait for this to go lower to about 0.81272 instead.

Pending Short GBPUSD @ 1.615, TP @ 1.6025, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.621

Pending Short EURAUD @ 1.281, TP @ 1.265, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.2875

Edit: May also go long on USDCAD, TP @ 0.985

Won't be shorting GBPUSD

Pending Short EURUSD @ 1.305/6, TP Open for now, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.311
Pending Short GBPUSD @ 1.615/8, TP1 @ 1.60258, TP2 @ 1.59740, SL at 1.62162

Pending Short EURUSD @ 1.30688, TP at 1.27393, SL at 1.311.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #174
  • Oct 7, 2012 2:52am Oct 7, 2012 2:52am
Just checked out USDCAD for harmonic patterns and I realised that there was a pretty good looking bearish 3 drive. And it actually smacked straight down nearly 120 pips before closing above my r/s line. It has since pulled back to 38.2. Possible crab or bat pattern.

I won't go long here because it seems that it should try for 0.97347, the long leg below gives me doubts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 7 October 2012.png Size: 73 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #175
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:03pm Oct 7, 2012 9:03pm
Quoting aeternum
Pending Long NZDUSD @ 0.81751, TP1 @ 0.835 (BE to 0.825), TP2 @ 0.84639, going to wait for this to go lower to about 0.81272 instead.

Pending Short GBPUSD @ 1.615, TP @ 1.6025, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.621

Pending Short EURAUD @ 1.281, TP @ 1.265, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.2875

Edit: May also go long on USDCAD, TP @ 0.985

Won't be shorting GBPUSD

Pending Short EURUSD @ 1.305/6, TP Open for now, T/S every 25 pips, SL at 1.311
Quoting aeternum
Pending Short GBPUSD @ 1.615/8, TP1 @ 1.60258, TP2 @ 1.59740, SL at 1.62162

Pending Short EURUSD @ 1.30688, TP at 1.27393, SL at 1.311.
EURAUD Short entered at 1.28187, SL at BE now. Looking to a minimum of 1.255.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #176
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:06pm Oct 7, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting aeternum
Pending Short GBPUSD @ 1.615/8, TP1 @ 1.60258, TP2 @ 1.59740, SL at 1.62162

Pending Short EURUSD @ 1.30688, TP at 1.27393, SL at 1.311.
Changed EURUSD to 1.308. Edit: 1.307.

Still thinking about going long NZDUSD. Looks good to go long. How tempting this is.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #177
  • Oct 7, 2012 9:32pm Oct 7, 2012 9:32pm
Seems like I missed both my EURUSD and GBPUSD entries because they never came up high enough to give me my entries. Nevertheless, I see EURUSD being able to come up one more time high enough to give me a good entry because of corrective wave 2 for this new wave down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 8 October 2012 AM.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 8 October 2012 AM.png Size: 73 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #178
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:27am Oct 8, 2012 2:27am
Quoting aeternum
Seems like I missed both my EURUSD and GBPUSD entries because they never came up high enough to give me my entries. Nevertheless, I see EURUSD being able to come up one more time high enough to give me a good entry because of corrective wave 2 for this new wave down.
Seems like both EURUSD and GBPUSD have shot downwards without me. Nonetheless, I am still looking for a second opportunity to re-enter EURUSD when it comes up for corrective small wave 2.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #179
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:30am Oct 8, 2012 2:30am
Quoting aeternum
Just checked out USDCAD for harmonic patterns and I realised that there was a pretty good looking bearish 3 drive. And it actually smacked straight down nearly 120 pips before closing above my r/s line. It has since pulled back to 38.2. Possible crab or bat pattern.

I won't go long here because it seems that it should try for 0.97347, the long leg below gives me doubts.
USDCAD fell lower to the 23.6 at 0.97699 where it shot upwards now. Possibly looking for 61.8 at 0.9826.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 8 October 2012.png Size: 70 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #180
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:35am Oct 8, 2012 2:35am
Quoting aeternum
Seems like both EURUSD and GBPUSD have shot downwards without me. Nonetheless, I am still looking for a second opportunity to re-enter EURUSD when it comes up for corrective small wave 2.
This is what I'm expecting for EURUSD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 8 October 2012 Update.png Size: 75 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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