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My Learning Journey

  • #141
  • Oct 5, 2012 1:25am Oct 5, 2012 1:25am
Quoting aeternum
I realised how messy my charts are. Going to redo all of them now since I have time.
Redid them with elliot wave. I missed out some of my important fib levels that were available on my previous chart. But I realised those fib levels were drawn from weird levels so I decided not to have them there at all.

I feel that 1.207xx from July lows was actually the end of Corrective wave C from the past. I'm not entirely certain as I've not had time to complete drawing all the waves.

The new burst up to 1.31xx seems to be a new set of Impulsive wave 1 while this new retracement can either be seen as Impulsive wave a of Corrective wave 2 or Impulsive wave a of impulsive wave a of Corrective wave 2. So it seems like it may continue pushing lower until wave c which may be around 1.27xx areas before we shoot back up.

That is assuming this is the start of a new wave up which means Euro can actually see 1.4 soon.

Edit: I know it says [3] and [4] but I think it may actually be [1] and [2].
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 5 October 2012 AM EW.png Size: 77 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #142
  • Oct 5, 2012 2:00am Oct 5, 2012 2:00am
Replotted for future reference purposes to see if I'm right.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 5 October 2012 AM EW 4H.png Size: 80 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #143
  • Oct 5, 2012 5:45am Oct 5, 2012 5:45am
Here:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 5 October 2012 AM EW 4H.png Size: 82 KB
  • #144
  • Oct 5, 2012 5:48am Oct 5, 2012 5:48am
Quoting freelancer
Here:
I realised if I adjusted 1 and 2 to the red candle below, it would fit. So this small movement here isn't actually wrong.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #145
  • Oct 5, 2012 7:39am Oct 5, 2012 7:39am
Non-farm Payroll met expectations at 114k while Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.8%. This is really good news for USD. Should EURUSD follow down to 1.27 now, this would be in line with what I drew for my EW chart.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #146
  • Edited 8:36am Oct 5, 2012 7:56am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting aeternum
Non-farm Payroll met expectations at 114k while Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.8%. This is really good news for USD. Should EURUSD follow down to 1.27 now, this would be in line with what I drew for my EW chart.
Failure to break 1.303 brings us straight down.

Edit: Now expecting consolidation. Down move next week.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #147
  • Oct 5, 2012 8:43am Oct 5, 2012 8:43am
GBPUSD is going back down.

AUDUSD is refusing to move anywhere.

EURUSD is continuing to climb.

I have no idea what's going on right now.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #148
  • Oct 5, 2012 8:48am Oct 5, 2012 8:48am
Quoting aeternum
GBPUSD is going back down.

AUDUSD is refusing to move anywhere.

EURUSD is continuing to climb.

I have no idea what's going on right now.
Acctually, I just summed up my thoughts about those 3 here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post6072939
Thoughts are things
  • #149
  • Oct 5, 2012 9:15am Oct 5, 2012 9:15am
Quoting Quezoy
Acctually, I just summed up my thoughts about those 3 here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post6072939
Hi thanks for sharing. I still feel that there would be bearish movement next week. I'm looking at 1.28 levels for EURUSD, 1.604/5 levels for GBPUSD and 1.016 levels for AUDUSD.

I'm still learning EW and I only have them on my EURUSD chart so I can't show anything for AUDUSD or GBPUSD. But I do have a short-term bearish bias here because in order for price to go any higher, it has to go lower. Indeed we retraced to 1.28x for EURUSD. Maybe I'm wrong then.

1.306 is proving to be good resistance for now. I hope it doesn't break.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #150
  • Oct 5, 2012 9:47am Oct 5, 2012 9:47am
Took a short at 1.30655. TP at 1.30309. Time to learn patience and let it run.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #151
  • Oct 5, 2012 9:58am Oct 5, 2012 9:58am
Quoting aeternum
Took a short at 1.30655. TP at 1.30309. Time to learn patience and let it run.
Closed at 1.30527. Pending sell at 1.308.

TP to 1.30309.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #152
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:00am Oct 5, 2012 10:00am
Quoting aeternum
Here's why I'm still bullish on all 3 pairs.

We have an uptrend coming since August and all these consolidations have been showing bullish patterns.

AUDUSD clearly shows a falling wedge in an uptrend.

EURUSD shows some sort of a falling wedge / rectangle.

Edit: The green line shows a good entry point, while the red is a Stop Loss. You could definitely adjust the stop loss to fit something on your charts, but I doubt we will break the red line (we might break the green).

GBPUSD shows a consolidating rectangle in an uptrend (aka bullish...
Its stupid when I don't listen to myself and go for stupid trades and end up losing some money for no reason.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #153
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:11am Oct 5, 2012 10:11am
Quoting aeternum
Closed at 1.30527. Pending sell at 1.308.

TP to 1.30309.
Re-entered at 1.30534. Going to let it run down to 1.30309 this time.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #154
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:26am Oct 5, 2012 10:26am
Quoting aeternum
Re-entered at 1.30534. Going to let it run down to 1.30309 this time.
Closed 1.30517. 1.305 is proving to be stubborn. Really really stubborn.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #155
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:47pm Oct 5, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting aeternum
Re-entered at 1.30534. Going to let it run down to 1.30309 this time.
It got to 1.30309 without me. A little annoyed but glad that I called it. May retrace higher to test highs at 1.3174 where failure would bring us spiking straight down. But I'm expecting some sort of a 1.27/8 level to come into play now as part of corrective wave c to complete big wave 2. This will give us space to shoot higher for big wave 3 where I see impulsive wave 1 playing into the 1.32 regions. So 1.27/8 would give us 1.32/3.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #156
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:57pm Oct 5, 2012 12:57pm
I just took a look at AUDUSD on 4H, Daily and Weekly and everything looks bearish.

4H MACD is about to crossover, Daily bearish engulfing while this is the 3rd bearish week for AUDUSD where MACD is about to crossover and RSI dipped below 50. We may actually see parity.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 5 October PM 4H.png Size: 91 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 5 October PM Daily.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD 5 October PM Weekly.png Size: 77 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #157
  • Oct 5, 2012 1:15pm Oct 5, 2012 1:15pm
Opened EURUSD short 1.30334. Too bad I closed my 1.305x trade early.

TP @ 1.27258, looking for a lower low before we start spiking to 1.34.

Following a chart I have made earlier, except that I didn't expect it to break 1.3 earlier on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 5 October 2012 AM EW 4H.png Size: 80 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #158
  • Oct 5, 2012 1:33pm Oct 5, 2012 1:33pm
I decided to do something to relieve myself of stupid actions.

I used a demo account to place random entries to test the market.

I placed a buy on eurusd at 1.30353 and I set TP to 1.315.

I also placed a buy on AUDUSD at 1.01872 with TP of 1.03366.

Now time to wait and see which will get to the TP first. My demo account of my live account.

I know that this seems like a really stupid thing to do. But sometimes I make stupid mistakes because of impulsive actions. I hope this prevents that from happening.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #159
  • Oct 5, 2012 4:30pm Oct 5, 2012 4:30pm
Good stuff i had a quick browes will check further oer week end..
  • #160
  • Oct 6, 2012 1:46am Oct 6, 2012 1:46am
Quoting danc
Good stuff i had a quick browes will check further oer week end..
Thank you and cheers Still learning. Making a lot of mistakes even though it looks like I'm not.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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