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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #119,441
  • Oct 5, 2012 8:12am Oct 5, 2012 8:12am
can someone please put this setup in the textbook....
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #119,442
  • Oct 5, 2012 8:13am Oct 5, 2012 8:13am
Hi Mike I was wondering if you could give me your opinion on what was bad about this pinbar setup.

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Thanks
Dan
  • #119,443
  • Oct 5, 2012 8:36am Oct 5, 2012 8:36am
Quoting dan89
Hi Mike I was wondering if you could give me your opinion on what was bad about this pinbar setup.

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Thanks
Dan
just one observation from my side:
what we have here is a retrace from the midpoint of the box. price often seems to retrace from that point. this is also something mike speaks about frequently.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #119,444
  • Edited 10:14am Oct 5, 2012 9:01am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting aserbfx
just one observation from my side:
what we have here is a retrace from the midpoint of the box. price often seems to retrace from that point. this is also something mike speaks about frequently.
yep im aware of the s/r /ppz level in the middle of the box. That was taken into account when i took the trade. Just wanted to know about the pinbar itself and the level it came off and what was not so good about it
  • #119,445
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:20am Oct 5, 2012 10:20am
Quoting dan89
Hi Mike I was wondering if you could give me your opinion on what was bad about this pinbar setup.

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Thanks
Dan
Hey Dan

Bad? That was a fantastic setup off a level you picked and we discussed. Notice it went to the midpoint of our consolidation box which =??

Great trade james would smile ear to ear on that one

Mike
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  • #119,446
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:34am Oct 5, 2012 10:34am
Took this pinbar. PPZ + EMA 365.
Hope that patience will paid off.
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  • #119,447
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:45am Oct 5, 2012 10:45am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Dan

Bad? That was a fantastic setup off a level you picked and we discussed. Notice it went to the midpoint of our consolidation box which =??

Great trade james would smile ear to ear on that one

Mike
I dont get it ... the pinbar itself is in traffic and a box. price consolidated before the pinbar formed ?? What am i missing here ..It was not a pinbar that stood out on its own ..but i got lucky and it worked out. The trade just felt wrong and i wasnt happy about it after it hit my TP
  • #119,448
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:49am Oct 5, 2012 10:49am
Quoting dan89
I dont get it ... the pinbar itself is in traffic and a box. price consolidated before the pinbar formed ?? What am i missing here ..It was not a pinbar that stood out on its own ..but i got lucky and it worked out. The trade just felt wrong and i wasnt happy about it after it hit my TP
Hey Dan

I think it's just cause you don't have time under your belt. You literally picked and and with me dissected this entire trade before it happened. You should be very pleased with that. Clearly you are learning. It is through time and repetition that you will gain more confidence in your ability to do this.

You should be patting yourself on the back not pulling your hair out!

Best
Mike
  • #119,449
  • Oct 5, 2012 10:50am Oct 5, 2012 10:50am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Dan

Absolutely price has proven this is support in the past. Good PA would be a strong indication of that as well. But now beyond that we have to keep taking the story further and understand the market conditions. Price is boxing. Thus we are in consolidation and thus price is sideways. So we must take that into consideration when examining the PA signals as well as how to manage that PA

Likewise if price gets under this box that support has a great chance of turning into resistance. Simple PPZ + Boxing here

Best
Mike
here is that post and chart dan. Remember YOU picked this area. I simply gave you the guidance of what we need to watch out for. Eventually you will see that all the time

Best
Mike
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  • #119,450
  • Oct 5, 2012 11:07am Oct 5, 2012 11:07am
Hi Mike, yeah I can see it worked out at a level i picked out but there are some things that bug me about it. The RR for a start was back to front .. i know you mentioned that RR doesnt matter so much, but if we are supposed to let our winners run and cut loosers short then that is a good RR ratio, right? Another thing is I can find FTA absolutly every where (not just on this particular setup), I just have to look to the left of current price action to find it. There is always something in the way to stop a trade from running. How do we dertermine whether the FTA chosen is relevant and how much weight it carries. Anyway Ive got all these problems plus more which is why ive been PM'ing you about the paid forum, I dont understand these things.
  • #119,451
  • Oct 5, 2012 11:30am Oct 5, 2012 11:30am
Quoting dan89
Hi Mike, yeah I can see it worked out at a level i picked out but there are some things that bug me about it. The RR for a start was back to front .. i know you mentioned that RR doesnt matter so much, but if we are supposed to let our winners run and cut loosers short then that is a good RR ratio, right? Another thing is I can find FTA absolutly every where (not just on this particular setup), I just have to look to the left of current price action to find it. There is always something in the way to stop a trade from running. How do we dertermine...
Demo demo demo, that's how you will learn and improve Dan

R:R looks great to me if you learn to be dynamic with your stop loss. Don't think of things as too static especially a term like R:R for most traders it's variable and ever changing especially during a trade.

Here is how I would approach this type of situation.

Even if you leave your stop under the pin. R:R can't be summed up in one trade. Just cause you risk more then you gain on a trade(again say you keep it static not like my chart). Then what if your win % is higher then your loss % then isn't it fine if you are making money? There isn't a one right answer here have to test with what works and you are comfortable. What we show you guys is what we have tested and are comfortable with to give you guys the tools to do this on your own and create what you feel is your method.

Best
Mike
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  • #119,452
  • Oct 5, 2012 11:43am Oct 5, 2012 11:43am
Quoting dan89
Hi Mike, yeah I can see it worked out at a level i picked out but there are some things that bug me about it. The RR for a start was back to front .. i know you mentioned that RR doesnt matter so much, but if we are supposed to let our winners run and cut loosers short then that is a good RR ratio, right? Another thing is I can find FTA absolutly every where (not just on this particular setup), I just have to look to the left of current price action to find it. There is always something in the way to stop a trade from running. How do we dertermine...
Quote
but if we are supposed to let our winners run and cut loosers short then that is a good RR ratio, right?
This phrase as good a myth as R:R itself. In absolute terms yes, this phrase does refer to the idea of a good solid R:R to all your trades. Why the idea of R:R is so popular can be well understood by the fact that as traders we obviously would love to keep losses small and bank in huge money. This is basically the concept R:R puts forward but why its really only a myth is because while every trader would "dearly" and "ideally" love to take 300 pip trades using a 30 pip stop loss, reality is trading successfully requires a lot more to the equation than the hunt for a magic system that consistently provides high R:R.

Talking about R:R to explain trading is like describing a skilled painter as someone who grabs a brush, smothers it with some paint and moves it around a canvas. Its like describing the awesome guitarist as someone who just merely runs his fingers on a few strings to produce sound. You see trading is no different than an art and to talk about it as merely a function of R:R is really over simplifying the whole deal.

Its not that R:R has no meaning what so ever, its just that people often tend to get carried away on the subject to the extent that it starts to matter more than anything else and that's when you're getting off on a tangent.

R:R for instance does not take into account the extremely important idea of PROBABILITY. All it says for example, is if a trade is good for less than 2R its not worth it? Well, what if its just a 50 pips move against a 150 pip stop but one, that YOU ARE ABSO-FRIGGIN-LUTELY sure is gonna make it? Technically that's 0.33R which is low on the R:R scale but your 'edge' on the trade lies in the high probability of the predicted move actually happening. For the sake of growing your account why should you then care that the R:R is low?

All systems I believe are some combination of 3 basic elements:

1) R:R (The Risk:Reward on an avg of X trades)

2) Strike rate (number of winners in a sample of X trades)

3) Frequency (Number of trades on avg in a period of time say week, month or year)

The utopian holy grail system, non-existent of course would be one that that would be high on all three, so those in search of this system would require 20 trades a month, at 4X reward against the initial risk, with no more than 3 losses or so. One heck of a system eh?

For good systems/methods in the real world though, they tend to go low on one or more of the determinants and balance it out in the remaining to provide you with an edge. So you could be day trading with 5 trades a day that gets you high on frequency but low on strike rate or you could wait for 2 trades a month i.e low on frequency but very high on the strike rate or R:R or both.

Point being that for every system, R:R is never the only determinant for successful consistent trading and there is definitely more to the equation, just like great painting goes beyond mixing colors to incorporating other important elements like the painter's skill to visualize his thoughts well enough to carve a clear picture.

Wow...I rambled more than I thought I would.

I hope this helps you in some way.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #119,453
  • Oct 5, 2012 11:52am Oct 5, 2012 11:52am
Quoting dan89
Hi Mike, yeah I can see it worked out at a level i picked out but there are some things that bug me about it. The RR for a start was back to front .. i know you mentioned that RR doesnt matter so much, but if we are supposed to let our winners run and cut loosers short then that is a good RR ratio, right? Another thing is I can find FTA absolutly every where (not just on this particular setup), I just have to look to the left of current price action to find it. There is always something in the way to stop a trade from running. How do we dertermine...

Hey Dan,
i know it's not the thing you want to hear, but Mike is completely right. "TIME UNDER YOUR BELT" - very big reason why 95% fail. If someone told me when i was in the beginning, that i need at least 5 years ... don't know what i was gonna do Especially when you are young and lack life experience, you want things to click a lot faster. I am not saying that is not possible to make it let's say for just 1 year. But i don't know such people. So don't fall down if you are not that exception. All lies down to how hard you want it !
Ask yourself "what is the thing/s you are very, VERY good at" (things not related to trading). Then ask yourself "how much time i do this thing to become that good". Answers are interesting

I will even do it with myself for you. I enjoy that
I am good at:
Playing guitar - 17 years practice
Computer stuff - 20 years practice
Body building - around 10 years since my first touch
Well ... bottom end .... seems it takes some time man!
---
Trading - 1,2 even 3 years ? and you expect to be driving that lambo?
  • #119,454
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:06pm Oct 5, 2012 12:06pm
Thanks for the posts Mike and Ghous regarding risk reward and stop loss. Ill try to keep that in mind on the next trade. At the moment my method is to pick very obvious s/r levels (horizontal) and wait for a Pinbar or OB at those levels and trade in the direction that they indicate. Ill post some charts with levels im looking at, if you could both check them out and tell me what you think that would be great. Mike can you explain how and what you look for in a key level and how you find and plot them please ?
  • #119,455
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:09pm Oct 5, 2012 12:09pm
Nice posts guys! I am in the same situation of Dan. I know most of the stuff here, but still don't make any money (yes losing).
Back to demo for a while, just trading PA and SR and watching the little more advanced stuff.
Maybe we can help each other Dan, trying to make some consistent money.
  • #119,456
  • Edited 12:50pm Oct 5, 2012 12:15pm | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting Rust
Hey Dan,
i know it's not the thing you want to hear, but Mike is completely right. "TIME UNDER YOUR BELT" - very big reason why 95% fail. If someone told me when i was in the beginning, that i need at least 5 years ... don't know what i was gonna do Especially when you are young and lack life experience, you want things to click a lot faster. I am not saying that is not possible to make it let's say for just 1 year. But i don't know such people. So don't fall down if you are not that exception. All lies down to how hard you want it !
Ask yourself...
Thanks for the reply Rust. only in the very begining when i first started with forex did i think i coud master it quickly and earn a decent amount of money. After a while I realised that wouldnt happen and new it would take years. Ive been at this for several years now.

Its funny you mention listing/thinking about things that Im very very good at or the best at. I was talking to my mother earlier today about that as major firms in the UK have opened up their applications for us Uni grads. Compeitition is very high in my field. Very few major firms in London and each get around 1200 -1500 applicants with only 2-2 max jobs available. I mentioned to her that in order for me to be offered a job on that graduate scheme I would have to be better then EVERYONE else, in other words I would have to be the BEST. I then realised that ive never been the best at anything ive done or at the very least better then most. At school, college and university I was never at the top of my class and never got the highest grade, the fact that i couldnt even achieve that at Uni made me realise that there is barley even a chance that I would be offered a job with one of these firms. I cant really think of anything else outside of 'school'. I used to play Basketball a lot, was good but never the best at my club or school/college.
  • #119,457
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:18pm Oct 5, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting Thierry
Nice posts guys! I am in the same situation of Dan. I know most of the stuff here, but still don't make any money (yes losing).
Back to demo for a while, just trading PA and SR and watching the little more advanced stuff.
Maybe we can help each other Dan, trying to make some consistent money.
I will post up my charts etc with levels and trades before i enter. But please dont follow/take trades based on my analysis or let it influence your own because most of the time im wrong. 2 people who are failing shouldnt really be trying to help each other succeed if that makes sense - in my personal opinion. But I will post up some stuff when I can

Thanks
Dan
  • #119,458
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:26pm Oct 5, 2012 12:26pm
daily pinbar at daily hcr on sp500 emini.
the index is in an overall uptrend, so be careful and put your stop above the high of the pinbar.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #119,459
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:38pm Oct 5, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting dan89
Thanks for the reply Rust. only in the very begining when i first started with forex did i think i coud master it quickly and earn a decent amount of money. After a while I realised that wouldnt happen and new it would take years. Ive been at this for several years now.

Its funny you mention listing/thinking about things that Im very very good at or the best at. I was talking to my mother earlier today about that as major firms in the UK have opened up their applications for us Uni grads. Compeitition is very high in my field. Very few major firms...
I don't believe that Dan! Every one has his strengths ! Believe in yourself!
You don't have to be number 1 in the World. But to be confident in your success when doing the thing
Ask yourself of such thing, then ask yourself how you get that level.
  • #119,460
  • Oct 5, 2012 12:46pm Oct 5, 2012 12:46pm
hello. I am new. sorry for off topic question but could explain someone what is the difference between sell-buy stop and sell- buy limit?
thanks for your time.
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