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  • #2,101
  • Oct 4, 2012 4:12pm Oct 4, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting Crassius
If you go back and look at the picture from that post, you'll see that wave B is likely to fail near 3030.... We put that in today.

I would expect a wave C now to be formed ending lower than 2803.... perhaps the much anticipated 2750.

Of course a complex correction is always a possibility.... perhaps two 3 wave sequences separated by an X wave that ultimately fails ahead of 3173.

Should 3040 give, 3115 would be next target.
  • #2,102
  • Oct 5, 2012 1:44am Oct 5, 2012 1:44am
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  • #2,103
  • Oct 5, 2012 1:46am Oct 5, 2012 1:46am
..
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  • #2,104
  • Oct 5, 2012 1:50am Oct 5, 2012 1:50am
if euro/dollar has plans t6o shove to 3170 on nfp news then i will be more interested to buy near 2950 ; 2970 is minor support.

it all depends on how the chart shapes up just before news time.
  • #2,105
  • Oct 5, 2012 8:03am Oct 5, 2012 8:03am
Broke 3030 briefly, but more resistance just above at 3047 9/21 high
  • #2,106
  • Edited 9:52am Oct 5, 2012 9:47am | Edited 9:52am
Next resistance levels...

3115 would be a measured target at 1.382 Fib, but between 3115 and price now at 3060, just below R1 today we have a long term falling trend line that comes in at 3103 today and of course the 3100 Big Figure.

With 45 minutes left in the day, and R1 providing some resistance and slowing momentum, I doubt we get there.

If we are in fact in a Wave B corrective of the Wave A Low at 2803, we need to fail ahead of 3173.... 3030, the 61.8 Fib was the lowest target for termination of the current wave B... if we go higher, 3100 - 3115 should be it, before we correct down below the 2803, and likely first target of a Wave C at 2740/50.

Chart posted Days ago here still illustrative... attached here again.
Attached Image
  • #2,107
  • Oct 7, 2012 7:13pm Oct 7, 2012 7:13pm
Good night mates.

I hope that lots of fellows will soon have their ****s back here from various vacations and other businesses that they/you do.

I'll leave EURUSD for tomorrow,

AUDUSD:
Nice gap, retraces a bit back to fill up the gap, I think that it will go a bit lower even though there's a bullish divergence and over sold (RSI) market for this pair but every bottom has a bottom. At least fib127.2 level extension is expected, though both ways are considered, for a full review of mine please go here.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-727Fgy0Tdy...8-Oct-12+2.png
  • #2,108
  • Edited 8:47pm Oct 7, 2012 8:20pm | Edited 8:47pm
The current rise from 1.2803 appears to be a wave B the may have terminated at the rising channel line, exceeding the 61.8% retracement of Wave A from the 3173 high.

A wave B will commonly fail at the 61.8% retracement of Wave A. While wave A could have been expected to be shallow, given the strength of the uptrend, the fact that we did not even retrace to the .382 level bear 2740, leads me to favor a shallow wave B that fails well short of challenging the 3173 high. Wave B has already made it to 61.8% retracement, and has turned at the channel top slightly higher.

I will wait for more conformation, at this time early in the Asain session of a new week, and although scope remains for 3115, and I would not be at all surprised to see one more push higher, I think we will see 2750 before we see 3115.

The rising channel bottom we are now approaching will be an area to consider an position... bull or bear.
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  • #2,109
  • Edited 1:13am Oct 8, 2012 1:09am | Edited 1:13am
Just got filled on a long 2977 at channel bottom posted above.... may see one more push at 3173 highs...
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  • #2,110
  • Oct 8, 2012 1:58am Oct 8, 2012 1:58am
Quoting Crassius
Just got filled on a long 2977 at channel bottom posted above.... may see one more push at 3173 highs...
Good morning
Nice trade, but I am slightly different for this pair now;
My current trade setup for this pair is below the current trend, because we got a trend continuation flag set up and it actually respected fib61.8 retracement (it doesn't have to be that perfect), and from this I expect it will go lower.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-V_pPuMmL-6...+08-Oct-12.png http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bZK32G00MB...+08-Oct-12.png
  • #2,111
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:23am Oct 8, 2012 2:23am
Quoting mikeylp
Good morning
Nice trade, but I am slightly different for this pair now;
My current trade setup for this pair is below the current trend, because we got a trend continuation flag set up and it actually respected fib61.8 retracement (it doesn't have to be that perfect), and from this I expect it will go lower.

Yeah I posted that probability above as well... one problem posting quick notes on trades in a forum..... is most people don't also mention time frame/time horizon....

I trade several accounts of different time horizons.... and some with mechanical systems. Although I can see the probability of continued weakness, in my Swing trade account, I have enough room to play a long against 2900, which has some strong seasonality adding to its support....

One more push to try to take out the 3173 high is another probability to the one we both agree on, and provides good risk/reward on a swing trading basis against 2900.
  • #2,112
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:26am Oct 8, 2012 2:26am
Good morning traders...

EURJPY:

I recommend this pair, at least follow it because nice setups and big moves expected (possibly, maybe, likely).
Please read the full review here. Thanks

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tVRGL60J-_...+08-Oct-12.png http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-R7xlx-gzMt...+08-Oct-12.png

Green pips all
  • #2,113
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:31am Oct 8, 2012 2:31am
Quoting Crassius
Yeah I posted that probability above as well... one problem posting quick notes on trades in a forum..... is most people don't also mention time frame/time horizon....

I trade several accounts of different time horizons.... and some with mechanical systems. Although I can see the probability of continued weakness, in my Swing trade account, I have enough room to play a long against 2900, which has some strong seasonality adding to its support....

One more push to try to take out the 3173 high is another probability to the one we both agree...
I read everything you previously wrote, liked it and appreciate your shares.
The 3173 level is indeed a good level for a retest before it falls (or rallies), I just prefer it safer for this kind of formation, that's all.

Good trade day.
  • #2,114
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:33am Oct 8, 2012 2:33am
Flirting with weekly ppx mid....as we speak..????
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  • #2,115
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:35am Oct 8, 2012 2:35am
Quoting danc
Flirting with weekly ppx mid....as we speak..????
There are a lot of bids stacked up near here at 2960 to 2950.... less layered into 2940... this area holding key to short term longs...
  • #2,116
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:42am Oct 8, 2012 2:42am
Quoting Crassius
There are a lot of bids stacked up near here at 2960 to 2950.... less layered into 2940... this area holding key to short term longs...
Thks.. Will wait to see if i can get enter point price act on 5/15m??
  • #2,117
  • Oct 8, 2012 2:53am Oct 8, 2012 2:53am
4 hr looks like it may be turning..???? 38% and couple of fibo exts also around this area
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  • #2,118
  • Oct 8, 2012 4:52am Oct 8, 2012 4:52am
Hey
The EURUSD is currently supported by a previous resistance level, it might retrace just a bid from this point (1H/4H Chart) (in case the move is bearish) to a previous support level and fall down, my sentiment for this is fib 161.8 (price 1.2573) level.
Full review can be found here.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eDJOIrOtdr...+08-Oct-12.png

Green Pips All
  • #2,119
  • Oct 8, 2012 5:44am Oct 8, 2012 5:44am
Stops that were under 2945 tripped...(Stop hunt as US traders come back?) Should the selling continue.... which is driven largely by EURJPY profit taking in thin holiday conditions.... there is a confluence of support around 2925...

The 10 DMA which capped all last week except Friday NFP release is 2923, 200 HMA 2921, 76.4% Fib retrace 2923 Oct 4 low @ 2926....

Confluences often are strong support and we have already breached S2...
  • #2,120
  • Oct 8, 2012 6:20am Oct 8, 2012 6:20am
MM i have it at 50% of that range up.. and using week pivots i have 3 points around this area.. including current week.. ppx.. abt 10 abve were it is at mo.. but i would want to see diffrent price action than i am seeing at mo for me to put my monie on..similar situation with Cable.. just my thoughts..
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