Price Action, Pro, And Ichi Trading with 2ndskiesforex

Dow Index
Since the market got the green light from Bernanke and the QEinfinity policy, the Dow Index cleared past the yearly highs and went on a 350pt run in a few days. However, in the last six, the has consolidated forming a series of overlapping bars between the 13653 and 13495 levels.

Although i'm not sure how much longer this range will hold since we have had three touches on each end, as long as the intraday price action looks corrective, both bulls and bears have plays at the aforementioned levels.

Medium term I favor an upside break, but sbeing in a range, you have to trade it like a range. Thus, I'll be watching intraday price action clues for selling towards the highs around 13653 with tight stops above, and looking for buys around the 13495/13500 area until the range breaks so some potentially profitable setups here with low risk and strong reward.



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USDINX
For the last week or two, the USD has enjoyed some decent gains, but as a whole, I am not sold on the overall correction. To be fair, the USD got sold off aggressively in the first two weeks of September where it ended with exhaustive selling. Even thought the bounce off of 78.60 has shown solid buying interest, the overall price action structure appears corrective so I'm looking to sell.

I'll be open to selling just north of here at 80.00 which is the big figure and dynamic resistance on the daily chart. Another level I'd consider selling is just above at 80.17 which is a key role reversal level. Until 80.50 is broken, I'm bearish medium term, but short term slightly bullish.



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NZDUSD
With the dollar gaining vs. the majors all week, the Kiwi-Dollar has been the most resistant. Today it formed a double bottom at a key role reversal level in .8187. The 1st attempt at this level printed a pin bar which pushed prices back about 100pips. However, the second attack (today) on the level stopped right at it. After forming a smaller pin bar rejection off of it, it then formed an outside bar and ended with an engulfing bar - so a strong intraday confluence of signals.

With the second attempt by the bears failing to breach .8187 level, I'd consider an intraday long on a corrective pullback into the level towards .8200 with tight stops below targeting .8242 and .8287, so keep an eye if price action shows weakness pulling back into this level.



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Hello Traders,

The USDINX gave a trade as suspected right off the 20ema only moving 1.3pts above it, then selling off for another 50. When we posted this signal, we suggested USD weakness is more likely, and the next day it closed lower along with further losses today.

Traders taking this play had 2 chances to take the rejection off the dynamic resistance and have now had plenty of time to lock in profits.

Anyone take advantage of this?

Thanks Chris, that's one of my plays as well.

Nicely done Dart. There was a similar play in the EURUSD as well using the same method but glad to hear you did well on this play.

Kind Regards,
Chris

EURJPY
After peaking at 103.50 about a week and a half ago, the EURJPY has formed two N waves down which is leg 6 of the wave count. This is hinting there is likely another leg down and the price action confirms that with the last pullback being corrective. Also, the chikou is below the price line, and there is a thick kumo ahead, so watch for a potential strong downward tenken-sen kijun-sen cross early this week to catch the next potential leg down.



Gold
After rejecting just shy of the $1790 level last week, Gold started to sell off and show some potential weakness and definitely some profit-taking. However, the precious metal was bought back up on the dip which formed a pin bar rejection off the 20ema and followed it up with an impressive $24 gain to end the week. I suspect the pullback into the daily 20ema wasn't just profit-taking from all those that were long around the breakout at $1633, but also a punish the johnny-come-late players who entered this uptrend towards the highs around $1775.

With the dip being bought so aggressively, it shows the institutional players are happy to buy this on the dip so the trend is still well supported with no structural breakdown. Watch for price action pullbacks into the $1737-42 area for potential longs while bears can look to short on corrective weakness heading into $1787.

Hey Traders,

Gold has formed a daily outside bar which can be an interesting reversal signal, especially when it forms a 2-way outside bar like this one.

What is interesting is how the sell-off ensued as it has formed two pin bars suggesting the selling is being absorbed and there is buying interest here. Very interesting in front of the strong sell-off at the yearly highs. This buying up of Gold could be the pre-tense before a breakout. Interesting price action to say the least but take a look at the chart below;



I hope you enjoy this price action analysis

Hey Traders,

Just landed a few hours ago from a long intercontinental flight, but wanted to show what looks like a price action squeeze happening on Gold, possibly in anticipation of the ECB or NFP which could provide the fuel for the breakout.

Take a look below and feel free to share your thoughts.

Hello Traders,

Gold has continued what I call a 'Price Action Squeeze' over the last two days, with today forming back to back 2-way outside bars. But notice how the 20ema is carrying the price action and the 2nd 2-way outside bar formed a HL. This suggests the upside pressure is continuing so i'm expecting a breakout soon which you can see in the chart below.

Hey Chris...

Good to see you had a good trip.

Had a few play on the AU this week. Watching to see what is happening with a few other pairs on the H4.

Yep, been traveling and in Puerto Rico now looking at some new houses

Will put pics on the forum

But yes, good to be back.

Aussie has been interesting for sure and some of the traders made some good money on it lately so hopefully you did the same.

Kind Regards,
Chris

Yea I got some of it...easy stuff. I'll post some charts later. Some inverse trades look to be coming imo.

Here's one i got into a couple hrs ago.

Just waited for pa to give me a reason and I got it.

Well this trade worked out great. Although I did TP at the top of the flat Kumo. Fortunately I was reminded of NFP...

AUDUSD
The Kumo Break discussed last week has found its way lower as expected, even coming back towards the flat bottom and rejecting off of it twice. The pair also formed a tenkan-sen kijun-sen cross downward (medium), so the downside move could start to gain traction if it can clear the main lows at 1.0151. Being that the pair is likely in a Y-wave, this would also support the more downside theory and likely selling pressure to remain all week.

I'm expecting a downside target of 1.0008 at a minimum to fulfill the Y-wave before buyers would consider coming back into the market. So bulls have a level lower they can enter while bears can sell any rejections around 1.0263 or near the flat Kumo top.



Gold
Continuing the uptrend with a pin bar rejection off the 20ema last week, the precious metal ended the week forming an outside bar near the critical $1800 resistance area where I suspect a fair amount of stops are parked just above. The shiny metal has yet to make significant gains over the last three weeks, only slowly inching higher. However, it continues to form higher lows and be bought up on the dips, so the major trend is still in place.

Bears can look for shorts at the $1800 figure taking profits at $1790 and $1780 while bulls can look for pullbacks towards the $1755 region before entering long as the overall trend remains intact for now.

Hello Traders,

Am back now from vacation so expect a full week of commentary and updates, starting with my weekly highlights which are below;

GBPJPY
Stuck in a short term channel, the GBPJPY has had more impulsive selling than buying within this channel so am slightly more bearish than bullish. Notice the two large rejections towards the upper end of the channels with the last one forming a large pin bar setup. Traders can look for rejections at the upper end of the channel to get short while looking at short term longs around 124.00 but between the two, I'd rather sell 2 out of every three trades inside this channel.



AUDUSD
After holding the 1.0150 area last week and climbing for three straight days, the Aussie stopped dead in its tracks just shy of 1.0300 where it has formed a triple rejection there. Short term traders can look for plays in the three day range that has formed just shy of 1.0300 with the bottom around 1.0215. The rejections on the upper end of this range just below the dynamic support and 20ema are larger than the buying on the bottom suggesting selling interest is willing to hold the upside short term. If 1.0150 breaks, then 1.0100 should be under attack shortly after but last weeks price action looks like its part of a corrective bullish pullback before possibly more selling.

Hello Traders,

Spotted this inside bar setup on Gold which gives both bears and bulls some play for the short term.

Check out the commentary and chart below;

Gold
Today, Gold has continued its sell-off, losing its luster as it shed over $15 breaking a key support level at $1739. In the process, it hit an intraday low sub $1730. Before the major sell-off today, it formed three inside bars, and then started the impulsive sell-off on the break of their lows. It has since then formed another inside bar, so a pullback towards the prior swing lows might offer an selling opportunity.

Bulls on the other hand will look for a corrective pullback into the $1730 lows which is showing a strong pin bar on the 1hr chart, which is part of the longer rejection from the large bear candle and selling pressure today. This may be signaling buyers picking the metal up on the dip, so there are plays on both sides.

GBPJPY
After a 5 day rally, the GBPJPY found resistance at 128.25 forming a pin bar rejection in the process. Although the last major swing was down and formed a LL (lower low), the last upswing formed a HH suggesting an increase in volatility. Key resistance for bears lies between 128.25-128.81 so bears can watch for price action signals here, while bulls can look for longs just sub 125 looking for at least a return back to 127 so a solid reward play there.



Dow Jones
Having its single biggest losing day in 4 mos (ironically on the anniversary of Black Friday in 1987), the Dow Jones index shed over 230+pts while forming a LH in the process. It is currently sitting just above a support level just sub 13300, but if the aggressive selling from Friday continues, we could see a drop to 13000 follow shortly after. Bears can look for breakout pullback setups below the 13300 or wait for a pullback towards 13550 but we could be seeing kinks in the armor of this uptrend since June.

Hey Traders,

Just spotted a large bullish pin bar setup on the Dow Jones with the chart below.

What do you think and would you take this trade?