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AUD/USD

  • #53,161
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:02pm Oct 4, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting sidhujag
I would hold your buys until AFTER NFP if it spikes up here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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To Your Success!!
  • #53,162
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:05pm Oct 4, 2012 1:05pm
Okay wow.... that poor unemployment claims what's need to bust through that 1.0226 fibo....
Okay heres the deal guys, we are gona get retracement but do not be lead to think this is headed up to 1.05 immediately, for me... i have an order placed at 1.0300 with tight stops, as long as it STAYS with the trendline below 1.0300, this baby is still bearish and nothing else.
H4 is back up in oversold zone around 1.0250 so im guessing we SHALL see a second attempt to enter the oversold zone (meaning RSI under 30). and that should push AUDUSD under and beyond that magical 1.02
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,163
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:08pm Oct 4, 2012 1:08pm
Quoting ndsouz
Attachment
Buddy i CANNOT HELP but to laugh at your chart....
you trade the daily and you cant even wait to let the Daily Close first before you attempt to long?!
buddy you will be disappointed.... so where did that Bullish Engulfing Candle of yours gone??
Like i said... UNDER 1.03 is still BEARISH
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,164
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:09pm Oct 4, 2012 1:09pm
I personally think this is really cut and dry here AUD/USD next week or even post NFP Friday we will see some profit taking. Remember this move lower was explosive, you compare this to August grind lower it made a move much faster. Its only right that AUD/USD comes back up a bit not just from the speculator stand point but imagine the Commercials that see this as a level to hedge currency risk at 1.02 1.03 they might be wrong in their analysis but there end goal is to protect future streams of revenue.

I still stick with the notion we can trade up next week a bit but lets not be confused here this is not a bull move to 1.07 1.08 and beyond. At the end of the day the underlying expectations and reality always come back into line and the expectations in Australia are being guided lower heading into year end.

And if dollar closes on WKLY above the support zone we could see continuation lower in AUD/USD but this move attracts commercials and new participants into the game theycould cause a slight hitch next week
  • #53,165
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:22pm Oct 4, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting bguguen
Buddy i CANNOT HELP but to laugh at your chart....
you trade the daily and you cant even wait to let the Daily Close first before you attempt to long?!
buddy you will be disappointed.... so where did that Bullish Engulfing Candle of yours gone??
Like i said... UNDER 1.03 is still BEARISH
Hi, Nice that my chart made you laugh hehe.
Don't worry, I am not looking for big targets and longterm.
Just TP1 1.0280 Tp2 1.03 and TP3-1.0325 , Then will see.

BTW, I'm not a daily chart trader, just posted what seems could be the possible support looking back at the change in direction from those areas marked on that daily chart.
To Your Success!!
  • #53,166
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:36pm Oct 4, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting ndsouz
Hi, Nice that my chart made you laugh hehe.
Don't worry, I am not looking for big targets and longterm.
Just TP1 1.0280 Tp2 1.03 and TP3-1.0325 , Then will see.

BTW, I'm not a daily chart trader, just posted what seems could be the possible support looking back at the change in direction from those areas marked on that daily chart.
well i warned about AUDUSD being in that tight 1.0226 - 1.0200 range.... it took a god damn unemployments claim to shoot that thing up, and im not even buying into this bullshit.... seriously..
but im glad you're not aiming too far up, for me this thing looks like a retrace, but thing'll be clearer after nfp i suppose
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,167
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:49pm Oct 4, 2012 1:49pm
Hi

Man short under water,will hang on
kept thinking it would need to drop down below 102 etc
Not sure now.Somebody else can hold the hot potatoe
over the weekend.
Think it needs a good sell off
  • #53,168
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:21pm Oct 4, 2012 2:21pm
Thank you Pair-me-up
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #53,169
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:57pm Oct 4, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
Anyone notice the weekly on the dollar index? if the current weekly candle turns bear,then we could possible get the beginning of a bearish 3 falling methods continuation pattern. Which would break the neck line of that weekly Head and Shoulders on the weekly and drop about 555 points.

It would match the holiday season that is coming up as well.
Could be very possible if NFP and Unemployment Rate come out with good numbers will lead to USD bashing and that will boost AUD/USD.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #53,170
  • Oct 4, 2012 3:12pm Oct 4, 2012 3:12pm
Zones all set for NFP

Will be easy pips


Topside 248 still critical, 267, 304

To the low. 231, 212, 204 and the big dog at 188/155

Ill be trading Audjpy during Asia.

Good luck guys

wulf
  • #53,171
  • Oct 4, 2012 3:14pm Oct 4, 2012 3:14pm
Quoting Ken A
Could be very possible if NFP and Unemployment Rate come out with good numbers will lead to USD bashing and that will boost AUD/USD.



Attachment

What if it doesnt come out good?? unemployment claims increased should've given you a hint that the NFP is going to be bad, but how bad will NFP miss?
But then again, no definite until the numbers come out. but looking at the chart. im only gona allow AUDUSD to go up to1.03 and there ill be looking to load shorts
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,172
  • Oct 4, 2012 3:24pm Oct 4, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting bguguen
What if it doesnt come out good?? unemployment claims increased should've given you a hint that the NFP is going to be bad, but how bad will NFP miss?
But then again, no definite until the numbers come out. but looking at the chart. im only gona allow AUDUSD to go up to1.03 and there ill be looking to load shorts
It doesn't matter either good or bad as we have seen what CB can do. Bad data will have more reasons to asset purchase mixed with all the political agendas. Today is a very good example as what might happen tomorrow.

Let's see what will happen tomorrow. Time will tell.

FOMC minutes;

FOMC Saw Signficant Downside Risks To Growth

 

  1. Saw manageable bond-buying risks
  2. Fiscal policy seen as a drag
  3. Housing market impeding recovery
  4. Europe, fiscal cliff, global slowdown risk factors
  5. Considering potential consensus forecast at next FOMC meeting
  6. Calendar guidance on rates could be replaced

  • #53,173
  • Oct 4, 2012 6:05pm Oct 4, 2012 6:05pm
This is the road map ppl dont believe the hype we are not going to 1.07--1.08--1.10 like some ppl think. I understand the argument while everyone is debasing why would you short the Higher yielding currencies?

Australia is not infallible they are not the greatest empire since Rome they are going to see next is a downgrade in
*corp debt
*municipalities
*Layoffs and project delays/cancellations
*Government coming out with less revenue and even worse tax receipts from Mining/Banking/Developers in the private sector
*Trade will still decline or be flat at best
*Another rate is coming in Dec so this turns off speculative money and foreign capital even more to investment in mining/development with high cost and already tight margins
*Yes credit will be cheaper and financing also but will they get raised for projects thats up in the air still




Look at the chart below I was off by 4 pips before the Fed came out where we topped out this is a mini wave for the next one coming. Fade the hype and the ones who draw cartoons who know very little about the macro picture. Stick to your plan and trade it but I will contribute non stop clear evidence of sectors that are going to be hammered soon.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1349300652
  • #53,174
  • Oct 4, 2012 6:37pm Oct 4, 2012 6:37pm
Quoting jplazard
Wkly close below 79.431 it opens the door yes. But on fractral analysis it should continue upwards before the next big leg down to 76.

I personally think we could to around 81 but if ratings agencies and fiscal news comes back into vogue than it will get hammered sooner than later.
I know you are bearish AUD/USD (as am I) but I'm trying to understand extent of it when you mention possibility of USD getting hammered sooner than later. As I understand it if USD gets hammered than AUD/USD will go up unless AUD gets hammered more. (which I don't expect, at least not in next month or two). Other possibility I am considering that you mean is that USD getting hammered will lead to risk off which means AUD down but then doesn't that mean USD would gain not get hammered (hence my confusion).
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,175
  • Oct 4, 2012 6:39pm Oct 4, 2012 6:39pm
Quoting Ken A
Could be very possible if NFP and Unemployment Rate come out with good numbers will lead to USD bashing and that will boost AUD/USD.



Attachment

I'm also confused by this. Wouldn't good NFP and employment numbers be good for USD? (Or do good numbers lead to decrease in QE3 and hence get treated as bad??)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,176
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:20pm Oct 4, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting dab
I'm also confused by this. Wouldn't good NFP and employment numbers be good for USD? (Or do good numbers lead to decrease in QE3 and hence get treated as bad??)

When there are good numbers that come out.. It is good for U.S. financial markets.. Stock, etc. Since people in the U.S. would use products, services, in their own country. As those markets get stronger the U.S. currency gets weaker.

So, yes a strong U.S. stock index moves in opposition to the U.S. dollar. So, if NFP is good that means more people working = more spending = stocks and investments go up, while dollar currency goes down.

I hope that made sense.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #53,177
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:42pm Oct 4, 2012 7:42pm
Dab,

I like you a lot as a trader. Not because of your quality of post but because you pry and and ask the question of 'you make an argument now prove it' type statements. I respect that and you have shifted my Saturday piece of what I was going to talk about to now I will put out another paper kind of like the first week. This will answer your questions on the correlation or why AUD/USD should continue to fall even if dollar looks to resume a downward move. Most of it will be hard numbers and a small bit will be my thesis for the macro bear but I hope you come check it out and let me know what you think.


EDIT: On a side note I wish there were ppl like dab and many others here who say prove it or get out because if we had that in the media or investing world there would not be so many incompetent journalist, advisers, pension funds, planners ect ect ect

Now off to Excel and the charts to plot the data
  • #53,178
  • Oct 4, 2012 8:02pm Oct 4, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting jplazard
Dab,

I like you a lot as a trader. Not because of your quality of post but because you pry and and ask the question of 'you make an argument now prove it' type statements. I respect that and you have shifted my Saturday piece of what I was going to talk about to now I will put out another paper kind of like the first week. This will answer your questions on the correlation or why AUD/USD should continue to fall even if dollar looks to resume a downward move. Most of it will be hard numbers and a small bit will be my thesis for the macro bear but...
Thanks JP, will continue to monitor hear & Bear Raid for your post. Can't say I'll understand all of it but will provide any feedback I can. Keep up the great analysis.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,179
  • Oct 4, 2012 8:03pm Oct 4, 2012 8:03pm
In the mean time check this out from last night right after Retail came out and dollar banged against major downward resistance same time AUD/USD started a turnaround overnight (grey line) Dont get to excited bulls though because look at the TOP of Dollar and the TOP OF AUD/USD sideways to down compared.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-04-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 106 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-04-TOS_CHARTS.jpg22.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #53,180
  • Edited 8:18pm Oct 4, 2012 8:07pm | Edited 8:18pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
When there are good numbers that come out.. It is good for U.S. financial markets.. Stock, etc. Since people in the U.S. would use products, services, in their own country. As those markets get stronger the U.S. currency gets weaker.

So, yes a strong U.S. stock index moves in opposition to the U.S. dollar. So, if NFP is good that means more people working = more spending = stocks and investments go up, while dollar currency goes down.

I hope that made sense.
Thanks Pair, totally understand the first bit, right up until you said "As those markets get stronger the US currency gets weaker". I've always thought that strong fundamentals in a country lead to strong currency. Your post has made me think though that strong AUD hasn't necessarily equated to strong ASX200 so understand it's far from perfect correlation. Would be interested in a chart showing USD against their stock market on same chart if you have it? (I need to look into adding USD to things I monitor but don't know how to plot several things on same chart). Suggestions for how to do this and even for where to monitor USD are appreciated!

Edit: have found US Dollar Basket on my FX provider
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
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