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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,501
  • Oct 2, 2012 11:39am Oct 2, 2012 11:39am
Hi Shahab8b, thanks for the reply. I was just wondering, what FX pairs to you look at / trade ? Just the majors ?
  • #5,502
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:50pm Oct 2, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting bassramy
2 Bearish shooting stars on resistance on the D1 TF, gives the impression that the bullish trend is over and a trend reversal is in place, a rejection of the PA on a strong resistance with a bearish long wicked pinbar on H1, i will go short after these more than enough bearish candlesticks on resistance signals.
Divergence on RSI on the D1 and forget the Long term Bearish Trendline that these Shooting stars formed below specially the second one.

We will see how it will work out.
Your opinion is appreciated.

Regards,
B.R.
  • #5,503
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:52pm Oct 2, 2012 4:52pm
AU: looks increasingly bearish. Let's see if we can take a short on a re-test of S turned R at 1.0330
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 6g.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au 6gi.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #5,504
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:57pm Oct 2, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting dan89
Hi Shahab8b, thanks for the reply. I was just wondering, what FX pairs to you look at / trade ? Just the majors ?
It's a personal choice; you may trade whatever you like. I prefer trading mostly majors plus EG. After a while you have the all the charts pictured in your mind since they are only 6-7 to follow.
  • #5,505
  • Oct 2, 2012 7:15pm Oct 2, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting shahab8b
AU: looks increasingly bearish. Let's see if we can take a short on a re-test of S turned R at 1.0330
Yes! Love the short side myself. Attached is a chart showing how long the "long only" open interest of the non-reporting traders are. They got caught long and wrong in Feb and looks like they might now too. Also respect the double top, QE3 spike (bad reaction to news) etc 4hrly shows we might get a short term bounce maybe?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audoct.jpg Size: 199 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hrly AUD.jpg Size: 171 KB
  • #5,506
  • Oct 2, 2012 11:58pm Oct 2, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
Thank you, i finally decided on the 78.6 Fibo and Strong Support as a target, target met now let's move on and look for another one.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.jpg Size: 173 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nu_1.jpg Size: 166 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nu_2.jpg Size: 191 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,507
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:02am Oct 3, 2012 12:02am
Quoting shahab8b
AU: looks increasingly bearish. Let's see if we can take a short on a re-test of S turned R at 1.0330
Forming a Descending triangle on the weekly.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,508
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:32am Oct 3, 2012 8:32am
Resistance + 61.8.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.jpg Size: 108 KB
Hello.
  • #5,509
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:51am Oct 3, 2012 8:51am
Shahab, you got your eye on NU at the moment .. looks interesting .. if not already in the trade yourself
  • #5,510
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:01am Oct 4, 2012 2:01am
A lot of Risk Events Today so be careful, there will be a lot of volatility and watch out for the break of the 1.29500 on the EU, 4 times PA been rejected from this Resistance Level ( 38.2 Fibo Also ) just Look at your H1 charts to see and notice the ascending triangle ( Higher Lows ) PA patterns make us think that a break to the upside is imminent, very soon.

Enjoy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 154 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,511
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:06am Oct 4, 2012 2:06am
I like this.

Quoting bassramy
A lot of Risk Events Today so be careful, there will be a lot of volatility and watch out for the break of the 1.29500 on the EU, 4 times PA been rejected from this Resistance Level ( 38.2 Fibo Also ) just Look at your H1 charts to see and notice the ascending triangle ( Higher Lows ) PA patterns make us think that a break to the upside is imminent, very soon.

Enjoy.
Hello.
  • #5,512
  • Edited 6:37am Oct 4, 2012 2:23am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting emene
I like this.
Off course I'm not speaking yet about the down trendline that been broken 2 days ago, PA is been squeezed in the last Third of the Triangle, all the signs of traditional TA says a break to the upside is imminent but who knows the market have her own mind and almost always its irrational.

I'm looking for the Fundamental Catalyst maybe it will be the :

ECB seen keeping interest rates on hold

Regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_1.jpg Size: 163 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,513
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:28am Oct 4, 2012 2:28am
I draw my trendlines on H4 or D1 closing price. Here is what I got and the retest was OK.

Quoting bassramy
Off course I'm not speaking yet about the down trendline that been broken 2 days ago, PA is been squeezed in the last Third of the Triangle, all the signs of traditional TA says a brake to the upside is imminent but who knows the market have her own mind and almost always its irrational.

I'm looking for the Fundamental Catalyst maybe it will be the :

ECB seen keeping interest rates on hold

Regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 83 KB
Hello.
  • #5,514
  • Edited 3:00am Oct 4, 2012 2:49am | Edited 3:00am
Possible short on GU with a long bearish Pinbar on H1 and on S turned R, any comments are highly appreciated.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu2.jpg Size: 130 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 127 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,515
  • Oct 4, 2012 5:32am Oct 4, 2012 5:32am
Maybe the Catalyst for the Break, No change in Interest Rate of the Euro, watching the ECB Conference now , let's see.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,516
  • Oct 4, 2012 5:36am Oct 4, 2012 5:36am
The triangle is broken let's see if it closes above Resistance.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,517
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:44am Oct 4, 2012 7:44am
Break Of support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.jpg Size: 153 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,518
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:45am Oct 4, 2012 7:45am
Break of resistance and Ascending triangle with probable Trade setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_1.jpg Size: 158 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,519
  • Oct 4, 2012 10:35am Oct 4, 2012 10:35am
Quoting emene
Resistance + 61.8.

Nice trade emene!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj4.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #5,520
  • Oct 4, 2012 10:36am Oct 4, 2012 10:36am
Quoting dan89
Shahab, you got your eye on NU at the moment .. looks interesting .. if not already in the trade yourself
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu4.gif Size: 21 KB
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