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  • #10,461
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:06pm Oct 3, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting DaddyBear
2+2=4ex, are you a woman or a Mama?
I'm a dude. Dude.
  • #10,462
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:08pm Oct 3, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting chiknthief
Careful DB - She is a 'dude' !!! hahahahahahahahaha
Damn I'm gonna have to take down my Megan Fox avatar. People are thinking I'm a woman. I'm a guy people! With hairy legs and all!
  • #10,463
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:49pm Oct 3, 2012 9:49pm
Hesitated taking long at 19 after the news release thinking it may tank even more but PA shows great resilience.
Now I am puzzled seriously.Part of me does not want to miss the action of going long despite of dooms day predictions and part of me thinks wait and get a better price.
I am long biased.Same people who say PA will reach .96 are the same people who screamed GU to reach 1.80 just a week ego.
No offense to anyone but the fact is market operates on its on Cycles depending on demand and supply not necessarily on fundamentals.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #10,464
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:58pm Oct 3, 2012 9:58pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Damn I'm gonna have to take down my Megan Fox avatar. People are thinking I'm a woman. I'm a guy people! With hairy legs and all!


Im sorry for those nudes i sent you then....
  • #10,465
  • Oct 3, 2012 10:40pm Oct 3, 2012 10:40pm
Hello

10800 to 102365 good move

caught it with hedge long

hard picking these moves
  • #10,466
  • Oct 3, 2012 10:49pm Oct 3, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The updated EWC is below.
I just realized one fact regarding EWP. The reason EWP is the law of the market is because most people don't know or don't want to know anything related to EWP. They follow herd mentality and in turn make EWP a reality. If the majority of people believe in EWP, EWP would not exist at all.
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,467
  • Oct 3, 2012 10:51pm Oct 3, 2012 10:51pm
Quoting Davit
Hesitated taking long at 19 after the news release thinking it may tank even more but PA shows great resilience.
Now I am puzzled seriously.Part of me does not want to miss the action of going long despite of dooms day predictions and part of me thinks wait and get a better price.
I am long biased.Same people who say PA will reach .96 are the same people who screamed GU to reach 1.80 just a week ego.
No offense to anyone but the fact is market operates on its on Cycles depending on demand and supply not necessarily on fundamentals.
What news release?
daddybearforex. com
  • #10,468
  • Oct 3, 2012 11:27pm Oct 3, 2012 11:27pm
Does anyone in here have any experience with indi development? Im hoping to get an alert added to an indicator I use!

If anyone can do this Ive made a thread in platform tech: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6067598

Thanks!
  • #10,469
  • Oct 3, 2012 11:28pm Oct 3, 2012 11:28pm
Quoting Wulfgar


Im sorry for those nudes i sent you then....
LOL. Thank goodness that's a joke.
  • #10,470
  • Oct 3, 2012 11:49pm Oct 3, 2012 11:49pm
I must admit, I'm sceptical of EWP. From my experiences, it seems like a way to make logic and predictions out of something that is not always logical and predictable. It is my belief that many people get fooled into trusting EWP out of common and repetitive occurences. Same as drawing random lines on a chart and believing that they have some power because price seems to bounce off of them sometimes.

The same reason many EWP'ers cite as the explanation for why it works (herd mentality) is the same reason I think it gives a false sense of reliability. Price just moves and then retraces. Over and over again. When it's trending the legs in the trend direction are longer than the counter trend direction. Buyers buy. Then buyers sell and take profit. Then buyers buy again. Until they sell more than they buy. Now you have downtrend. Price just zig zags everywhere as a result of the actions of market participants. It doesn't follow some A-B-C or I-II-III rule. If you are considering studying EWP, in my opinion it is better to study the actual herd itself and how they react under certain conditions or to certain price levels. You don't need to put roman numerals on a chart to understand price action. If anything it can lead you astray. Again this is my opinion from my experiences.
  • #10,471
  • Oct 4, 2012 2:21am Oct 4, 2012 2:21am
Quoting chiknthief
Its strangely silent in here today. Is everybody still a bull ? I'm excited about this. Where are my bull friends now ? Where are the bears too ? Hmmmm, am I the only bear ???

Chik, you must be referring to My Bull.


1-Aug
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5892095#post5892095


7-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=3623014
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=3623014


13-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=3623014


14-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6013387#post6013387
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6013452#post6013452


19-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6025605#post6025605


30-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6056199#post6056199


Above are your Early Warning signals for Bears since 1-Aug and even more from 7-Sep.

Thanks for your early bear warnings.
During that time, I have been more bullish.

On A/U Daily Chart, price gone up from 5-Sep to 14-Sep, low 1.0166 to 1.0624, up move of around 460-pips.
A Bear would not have catch this Up move.

From 14-Sep to 1-Oct basically a big sideway range.

From 2-Oct to 4-Oct a sudden quick Bear move after RBA rate cut.
A down move of around 450-pips from 15-Sep to 4-Oct.
A Bull would not have catch this Down move.

Basically at 4-Oct low 1.0181, price is still around and above the 5-Sep low 1.0166.

This overall move since 5-Sep just show a fast big up move, then a gradual fall into sideways, and last 2 days a greater fall.
Neither really bullish or bearish at the moment.

As price now is around 1.0200, within my Demand Zone 2: 1.0160 to 1.0220, I will not be bearish until well below 1.0160.

Agreed that Bull is under pressure for the last 2 days, still expecting a bounce up from 1.0220 for a possible Long setup above Demand Zone 2.

My previous chart show a potential Bullish Butterfly, but it did NOT happen, so no trade setup.
No chance for me to go Short either.

Currently, no Long setup or Short setup.

For COT, I will only re-analyse again next Tue.
For Price Action, price drop was from 28-Sep before RBA news.

For today 4-Oct, I still expect a general up move, looking for a setup around 1.0250, if it reaches there during US session.



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  • #10,472
  • Oct 4, 2012 4:30am Oct 4, 2012 4:30am
I guess the current PA has put us all to sleep.
Something brewing I'm sure.
Back to 1.0240- 1.0260??
  • #10,473
  • Edited 5:23am Oct 4, 2012 5:22am | Edited 5:23am
Oh let it bounce back up to that 1.024 or higher level. The AUD/USD is primed to get the big smack down. Sub parity within weeks... if not days.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #10,474
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:07am Oct 4, 2012 7:07am
Quoting foxybunny
Chik, you must be referring to My Bull.


1-Aug
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5892095#post5892095


7-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=3623014
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=3623014


13-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=3623014


14-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6013387#post6013387
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6013452#post6013452


19-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6025605#post6025605


30-Sep
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6056199#post6056199


Above...

PA is much much lower now than it was the 1st week in august. Now we're on the verge of taking out the september low. The bulls are heartbroken. 8500 here we come. (50% retracement mthly) Don't say it CANT happen. The COT suggests its quite a reasonable target. The BIG BEARISH alligator mouth on the COT is about to snap closed devouring all the bulls. This is a BIG HUNGRY BEAR !!!
  • #10,475
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:16am Oct 4, 2012 7:16am
Quoting chiknthief
PA is much much lower now than it was the 1st week in august. Now we're on the verge of taking out the september low. The bulls are heartbroken. 8500 here we come. (50% retracement mthly) Don't say it CANT happen. The COT suggests its quite a reasonable target. The BIG BEARISH alligator mouth on the COT is about to snap closed devouring all the bulls. This is a BIG HUNGRY BEAR !!!

You mention wait for Aligator mouth to start to close, I did not see that it started to close yet.

Hope you get your pips since it been Bearish.

Let us know on your chart specifically when you see another Bear signal, be more specific as to the entry.

You know most of my charts have more specific entries, not just saying bull or bear.

Bear signal is something I don't spot as well as you at the moment, so awaiting your better entries.
  • #10,476
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:19am Oct 4, 2012 7:19am
Quoting chiknthief
PA is much much lower now than it was the 1st week in august. Now we're on the verge of taking out the september low. The bulls are heartbroken. 8500 here we come. (50% retracement mthly) Don't say it CANT happen. The COT suggests its quite a reasonable target. The BIG BEARISH alligator mouth on the COT is about to snap closed devouring all the bulls. This is a BIG HUNGRY BEAR !!!
Gonna take a guess here, and say that we go up to 1.0280ish (23.6 fib) on the retrace... then downhill we go, FAST.
  • #10,477
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:40am Oct 4, 2012 7:40am
Quoting foxybunny
You mention wait for Aligator mouth to start to close, I did not see that it started to close yet.

Hope you get your pips since it been Bearish.

Let us know on your chart specifically when you see another Bear signal, be more specific as to the entry.

You know most of my charts have more specific entries, not just saying bull or bear.

Bear signal is something I don't spot as well as you at the moment, so awaiting your better entries.
Specific entries ??? I don't ever tell folks when to enter or exit. I figure people are smart and follow their own systems. I got my system and I like it. But that don't mean other people would be comfortable with my way just as I am not comfortable trading someone elses way. Thats whats so koool about trading. You can be an individual and find a system you like and are comfortable with and then add tweaks to it to try making it even better. The COT is the best directional indicator out there that I know of for the contrarian trader. It blends in quite well with the ole market adage 'when everybody wants to buy - SELL IT TO THEM, or when everybody wants to sell - BUY IT BACK. However, the COT is not a timing indicator. You must use your own timing. On the COT charts I'm always on the lookout for those BIG wide open alligator mouths (commercials and large specs at extremes in opposition of each other) When you see that you know a MAJOR turning point is imminent and the commercials are always right 100% of the time at every major turning point in the market. What better odds can you get ?
Now take a close look at the bottom of this chart - see that BIG WIDE OPEN alligator mouth on the COT ? Its easy to spot.
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  • #10,478
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:43am Oct 4, 2012 7:43am
Quoting Nate04
Gonna take a guess here, and say that we go up to 1.0280ish (23.6 fib) on the retrace... then downhill we go, FAST.
You may be right. No market goes straight up or straight down. We'll have rallies all along the way to jump on.
  • #10,479
  • Oct 4, 2012 7:57am Oct 4, 2012 7:57am
And then there's that crazy KICK DOWN cycle looming out there somewhere around the 1st three weeks in november. I assume we'll have a swing low in the next week or two and a rally into the first of november just in time for the kick down cycle to come into play. But who really knows !!!
  • #10,480
  • Oct 4, 2012 8:07am Oct 4, 2012 8:07am
A/U M15 now at interesting place with a minor Stoch Divg.

Either a Break Up 1.0250 or a Break Down 1.0200.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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