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  • #53,081
  • Oct 3, 2012 6:18pm Oct 3, 2012 6:18pm
Quoting HassanSheikh
Iran already trades minimal in USD. I read somewhere a while ago that they are selling oil to China and Russia and buying gold in return.
don't remember the source though.
I don't know if I can find any sources, but I'm sure there around somewhere.

My take is that if America wanted to destroy Iran's economy, first hit their oil, then when they try to side-step that problem by buying up gold, dump a bunch of gold into the markets to make gold drop! This isn't anything I believe in heart, since it's only a thought, but this Iran thing is pretty interesting.

Here's one:
http://gulfnews.com/business/economy...iran-1.1082122
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #53,082
  • Oct 3, 2012 6:25pm Oct 3, 2012 6:25pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
I don't know if I can find any sources, but I'm sure there around somewhere.

My take is that if America wanted to destroy Iran's economy, first hit their oil, then when they try to side-step that problem by buying up gold, dump a bunch of gold into the markets to make gold drop! This isn't anything I believe in heart, since it's only a thought, but this Iran thing is pretty interesting.

Here's one:
http://gulfnews.com/business/economy...iran-1.1082122
dumping gold may not be a good idea cz u can't keep gold price down for long. sanctions might be good idea but then oil price will go up and US economy will suffer instead of Iran's
  • #53,083
  • Oct 3, 2012 6:27pm Oct 3, 2012 6:27pm
what do we expect from Aussie data today? m long from 1.0199 and waiting till data comes.
  • #53,084
  • Oct 3, 2012 6:42pm Oct 3, 2012 6:42pm
Quoting HassanSheikh
what do we expect from Aussie data today? m long from 1.0199 and waiting till data comes.

 

  1. In Australia today, retail trade data for August is expected to show an increase, partly retracing the post-government-handout induced fall in July. We are looking for an above-market rise of 0.7% m/m, largely reflecting a bounce back in department store sales which declined 10% in July. Building approvals data for August are also released and market expectations are for an increase of around 5% m/m (ANZ: +10% m/m). Approvals declined 17% m/m in July and have been very volatile in recent months due to sharp swings in the lumpy apartment/units category.


Market Expectations ;

Retail Sales +0.4% m/m
Building Approvals +4.7% m/m
Buililding Approvals -14.3% y/y

  • #53,085
  • Oct 3, 2012 7:33pm Oct 3, 2012 7:33pm
For Anyone interest Indicators in the Picture...

I shared in HERE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-04_AU in H1 Chart.png Size: 29 KB
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #53,086
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:06pm Oct 3, 2012 8:06pm
A brief view on ANZ's latest view on RBA policy with regard to the future direction & timing of Australian Interest Rate movements ;
Australian Rates Strategy Update

http://www.forexfactory.com/mime.pl?...age004-130.gif

http://www.forexfactory.com/mime.pl?...age005-114.gif


PRICING TOO MUCH TOO SOON

· KEY VIEWS:We are cautious in the near-term. The risk is for a more extended easing cycle, although the interplay with a weakening currency will bear watching. Fiscal policy is set to remain tight. We have already hit some of our year-end forecasts for bond yields, but risk is for modestly lower yields next year. A recent highlight of domestic markets has been a compression in swap spreads considering the lower yield structure. We would see focus remain on narrowing spreads, but the scope for further compression looks to be more limited at present. This should see semi spreads remain under downward pressure, but we are more selective on semis in light of some recent negative ratings action with a preference for NSW as the most liquid of the AAA states. We see more scope for AUS-US spreads to compress over time, but have now hit a near-term target on the 5Y5Y spread.
· STIR:The December OIS near 2.90% looks over-extended as we do not see a strong case for 3 cuts in a row from the RBA at this stage. But we would look at hedges for a short rates position considering domestic risks. We would expect the curve to steepen if the RBA is more aggressive in coming months despite ongoing demand for yield in a world of extra-ordinary policy and excess liquidity.
· POLICY & THE ECONOMY:The house view is for one further RBA rate cut before the end of the year, most likely in November. The risk is for a more extended easing cycle to support growth in the interest rate and currency-sensitive sectors of the economy.
· GLOBAL MARKETS:Tail risks might have been removed in Europe for now and US economic data are starting to improve. But it is the uncertainty over the China outlook which is most important for Australia. The RBA has highlighted a more uncertain near-term growth outlook.
· KEEP AN EYE ON:How far the AUS weakens to gauge the pressure for a follow up rate cut from the RBA, the policy response from China under the new leadership, a possible early MYEFO from the Commonwealth to highlight tight fiscal policy. Key economic releases are Labour Force (Oct 11), RBA Minutes (Oct 16th), CPI (Oct 24th) RBA board (6th Nov) and CAPEX (29th Nov).
  • #53,087
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:32pm Oct 3, 2012 8:32pm
Retail better than the last reading but less than exp. this and housing can possibly be the excuse to buy
  • #53,088
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:36pm Oct 3, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting jplazard
Retail better than the last reading but less than exp. this and housing can possibly be the excuse to buy
Housing is neutral very poor adjustments to previous data rendering today's actual goodness into nothingness

Retail sales however to me is more important as it indicates the consumers living and the domestic economic functions in australia, the fact it is worse than expectation and no adjustments to previous makes this a bad news

Soooo neutral and bad news makes a bad-ish neutral news, soooo fundamental is still weighing down and not an excuse to buy.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,089
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:39pm Oct 3, 2012 8:39pm
Looking over the retail report not much growth other than the services/food side turnover is a bit higher but not robust or even a great picture.

I added at 1.0208
  • #53,090
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:42pm Oct 3, 2012 8:42pm
Expecting 1.016 fall then rebound back to around 1.05
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #53,091
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:43pm Oct 3, 2012 8:43pm
Given the massive stimulus handouts by Gillard Labor govt this number is shocking - Expect more rate cuts and that means the carry trade eroded.

Initial target 1.0120-30 then parity attack.

Pressure will come on EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD on the upside which has been well oversold in the long term .
  • #53,092
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:53pm Oct 3, 2012 8:53pm
Quoting John Gray
Expecting 1.016 fall then rebound back to around 1.05
Dont expect anything.... 1.0160 is a sure thing because its a huge S/R level... but if I were you, i would not get my hopes up so fast as to the the rebound back to 1.05,
From the charts right now... if this thing keeps going down on a sustained oversold, the lesser and lesser chance of a rebound from 1.0160
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,093
  • Oct 3, 2012 8:58pm Oct 3, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting bguguen
Dont expect anything.... 1.0160 is a sure thing because its a huge S/R level... but if I were you, i would not get my hopes up so fast as to the the rebound back to 1.05,
From the charts right now... if this thing keeps going down on a sustained oversold, the lesser and lesser chance of a rebound from 1.0160
You think it would break?
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #53,094
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:00pm Oct 3, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting jplazard
Retail better than the last reading but less than exp. this and housing can possibly be the excuse to buy
Quoting jplazard
Looking over the retail report not much growth other than the services/food side turnover is a bit higher but not robust or even a great picture.

I added at 1.0208
Did you added Long or added Short?
is it just me or are you contradicting yourself?

if you longed, next time becareful with your immediate interpretation of the datas coming out.... for a minute you'd think the housing was good news on better than expected but fail to realize that PREVIOUS was revised down is lethal....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,095
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:04pm Oct 3, 2012 9:04pm
Quoting John Gray
You think it would break?
Well... You tell me... Do you see anything that supports the theory that 1.0160 is a strong support OTHER than being a previous reaction level??
the answer is no....
the only logical STRONG, like ULTRA ULTRA strong where we should keep an eye out for reaction would be that 50% fibo at 1.0104 cuz 1.0100 is a whole number at that 50% also used to be a previous reaciton level... so theres MULTIPLE reasons
while 1.0160 only has one...
RSI on the Daily also has yet to go BELOW 30, that might just about bring us to 1.0104
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily.gif Size: 24 KB
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,096
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:04pm Oct 3, 2012 9:04pm
Quoting lasty
Given the massive stimulus handouts by Gillard Labor govt this number is shocking - Expect more rate cuts and that means the carry trade eroded.

Initial target 1.0120-30 then parity attack.

Pressure will come on EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD on the upside which has been well oversold in the long term .

What were the massive stimulus handouts?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #53,097
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:05pm Oct 3, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting John Gray
Expecting 1.016 fall then rebound back to around 1.05
Hi John,

I am short AUD at this time so my opinion may be a little biased but going back up to 1.05 is a little far fetched.

It took rate cuts along with bad data to move this far down this past week so there would definitely need to be some sort of catalyst to get back up to 1.05.

Also, look at all of the other majors: GBP, EUR, NZD, CAD - These majors have also been moving down (slower than AUD) or at best, consolidating with sideways movement.

Anything is possible in the FOREX market but don't hold your breath for 1.05

Happy Trading!
  • #53,098
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:09pm Oct 3, 2012 9:09pm
I have been short and Only short AU. I added to the short. I am unbiased like a great trader should be and was only considering both sides If the market closed up on hourly these numbers as bad as they were could be an excuse for the market to start profit taking into the weeks close.


Per my journal which I post more there I always show my PnL and entries and they have all been short and will continue to be short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-10-03-TOS_CHARTS.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #53,099
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:12pm Oct 3, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting jplazard
I have been short and Only short AU. I added to the short. I am unbiased like a great trader should be and was only considering both sides If the market closed up on hourly these numbers as bad as they were could be an excuse for the market to start profit taking into the weeks close.


Per my journal which I post more there I always show my PnL and entries and they have all been short and will continue to be short
my god... have you been reading the proclaimed "Genius" DaddyBear Posting in his thread?
theres a chart saying shit like AUDUSD is aiming for 1.10 and im like that aint gona happen....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #53,100
  • Oct 3, 2012 9:16pm Oct 3, 2012 9:16pm
Hi Guys,
I am new here,
Great posts, love it..

massive stimulus such as the govt handed out $900 to each tax payers.. LOL !

1.10 could happen if the rest of the countries are much worse than Oz,
I hope it reach 1.20 so i can travel to US of A..

Cheers guys,

Keep posting..
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