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  • #2,081
  • Oct 1, 2012 9:06am Oct 1, 2012 9:06am
2930 is such a good place technically to fade, but I am not willing to step in front of the rally... standing aside for more clarity.
  • #2,082
  • Oct 1, 2012 10:29am Oct 1, 2012 10:29am
Took a short at 2920... the failure at the trendline and 10 DMA was encouraging for one more push to 2750...

The daily chart is rolling over to bullish, slowing momentum and a bullish day today....

I just don't think we have corrected far enough...
  • #2,083
  • Oct 1, 2012 5:08pm Oct 1, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting Crassius
Took a short at 2920... the failure at the trendline and 10 DMA was encouraging for one more push to 2750...

The daily chart is rolling over to bullish, slowing momentum and a bullish day today....

I just don't think we have corrected far enough...

Went ahead and booked profit in this rather than carry through roll over...

From a TA standpoint this is tough pair in this zone, as it hammers out the last bit of a larger scale wave A off the 3173 high. Its entirely possible that Wave A's bottom has been put in at 2803...

I would prefer a bottom near the 38.2% retracement of the 2042/3173 uptrend, but this market continues to confound, with very good strength near the 200 DMA, and many many standing orders layered back from it through 2750.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,084
  • Oct 2, 2012 3:09am Oct 2, 2012 3:09am
Good morning Crassius

Do you think we will range untill :-

The ECB bank rate announcement
NFP on friday.

either one of these events could blow the 200 day ma
  • #2,085
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:26am Oct 2, 2012 4:26am
Bonds always get it first and always get it right --

After rumors all morning the Spain bailout near ... in various forms... some say this weekend, some say just waiting on Merkel, etc etc..

Bond spreads have been tightening -- They know something is up...

My buy orders lower look out of reach.... will remain untouched I guess... not willing to buy at these levels...

Large offers sit at 2940/50....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
  • #2,086
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:29am Oct 2, 2012 4:29am
Quoting Prosac_100Mg
Good morning Crassius

Do you think we will range untill :-

The ECB bank rate announcement
NFP on friday.

either one of these events could blow the 200 day ma

1. I think direction is up... short term bottom is in at 2803...

2. I think its a buy the rumor kind of environment at the moment.

My buy orders are at 2860... not willing to get in unless I get in cheap...

German banks closed Wednesday ahead of Thursday ECB... will dissolve into range trading conditions as week progresses...

Guess short term would be 2850 to 2950 bullish bias... 3000 caps pre ECB
  • #2,087
  • Oct 2, 2012 4:35am Oct 2, 2012 4:35am
Quoting Prosac_100Mg
Good morning Crassius

Do you think we will range untill :-

The ECB bank rate announcement
NFP on friday.

either one of these events could blow the 200 day ma

I have no idea what will happen after the high impact ECB and NFP...

For now, I rethought direction after the close yesterday when we had a chance to see the daily candle close... I cut my short from 2920 at 2885, and have long orders entered for now..

I will be flat going into ECB and wait and see what transpires...

A rate cut could bring 2750 back in focus... god knows everyone and his grandmother has had 2750 on their mind lately...
  • #2,088
  • Oct 2, 2012 5:05am Oct 2, 2012 5:05am
'A rate cut could bring 2750 back in focus... god knows everyone and his grandmother has had 2750 on their mind lately...'

LOL yes i think we will all be dissapointed .

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
  • #2,089
  • Oct 2, 2012 6:09am Oct 2, 2012 6:09am
Good Stuff..
  • #2,090
  • Oct 2, 2012 8:31am Oct 2, 2012 8:31am
Decisively take out 10 DMA which has constrained price over several days... trading 2941 having popped stops above yesterdays high...

Offers ahead of 2950 will try to hold back market from tripping stops above 2960....

I'm not interested in getting in... missed the move early morning with my buy orders lower than we dipped....

3030 (not today) is strong resistance once (if) 2960 breached.

Market rallying on weak bailout rumor/hopes....underpinned by bonds though
  • #2,091
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:32am Oct 3, 2012 12:32am
Yesterday's rumor fueled rise wasn't able to do anymore than pop the stops above 9/28 high before selling off as Rajoy gave no joy in his speech for the bailout announcement buy the rumor traders.

The speed of the climax bar to 1.2967 looks like a short term top is in place. With German banks out today, ECB tomorrow and NFP the next day, coupled with the very strong support the 200 DMA and 2800 just below has exhibited, and S2 all the way up at 2835 today... it seems unlikely barring any news driven fast money move that we break 2800 on our way to one last push to 2750....

2750 seems like such a tease by now....

Nonetheless, I am looking to get short today for the time being, if I can find an entry today at all.

Luckily I have some nice shorts over in AUSUSD and NZDUSD working to keep me occupied.
  • #2,092
  • Oct 3, 2012 12:52am Oct 3, 2012 12:52am
i had a short on eu which i closed for a few today, the current pa was the spoil sport. unless a good piece of news forces it to test last low, i expect consolidation to continue / and / or push towards testing 2970 again.

flat for now on eu.
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  • #2,093
  • Oct 3, 2012 3:29am Oct 3, 2012 3:29am
Breakout system went long on break above 200 HMA. Sometimes I hate these system trades from a discretionary standpoint, but I know the system is long term profitable, so I take every one and let the chips fall where they may.
  • #2,094
  • Oct 3, 2012 4:28am Oct 3, 2012 4:28am
Sexy Bond yields for Bulls...

check out Italian Ten year sub 5% --
Attached Images
  • #2,095
  • Edited 10:57am Oct 3, 2012 10:56am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting Crassius
Breakout system went long on break above 200 HMA. Sometimes I hate these system trades from a discretionary standpoint, but I know the system is long term profitable, so I take every one and let the chips fall where they may.

Just cut this at Break Even... we are going nowhere.. tight range until ECB likely.
  • #2,096
  • Oct 4, 2012 12:46am Oct 4, 2012 12:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,097
  • Oct 4, 2012 1:48am Oct 4, 2012 1:48am
Quoting hindustani
Yeah
  • #2,098
  • Oct 4, 2012 3:00am Oct 4, 2012 3:00am
Just for a laugh,i don't trade this heap of shit
but this is what my techs are saying.
Lets see how wrong i can be.
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #2,099
  • Oct 4, 2012 3:42am Oct 4, 2012 3:42am
And the Aussie,for all the great hoo haa going on
about this pair we're nothing more than playing the old range so far.
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #2,100
  • Oct 4, 2012 3:10pm Oct 4, 2012 3:10pm
Quoting Crassius

From a TA standpoint this is tough pair in this zone, as it hammers out the last bit of a larger scale wave A off the 3173 high. Its entirely possible that Wave A's bottom has been put in at 2803...
If you go back and look at the picture from that post, you'll see that wave B is likely to fail near 3030.... We put that in today.

I would expect a wave C now to be formed ending lower than 2803.... perhaps the much anticipated 2750.

Of course a complex correction is always a possibility.... perhaps two 3 wave sequences separated by an X wave that ultimately fails ahead of 3173.
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